Forecasting residential burglary

Following the work of Dhiri et al. [Modelling and predicting property crime trends. Home Office Research Study 198 (1999). London: HMSO] at the Home Office predicting recorded burglary and theft for England and Wales to the year 2001, econometric and time series models were constructed for predicting recorded residential burglary to the same date. A comparison between the Home Office econometric predictions and the less alarming econometric predictions made in this paper identified the differences as stemming from the particular set of variables used in the models. However, the Home Office and one of our econometric models adopted an error correction form which appeared to be the main reason why these models predicted increases in burglary. To identify the role of error correction in these models, time series models were built for the purpose of comparison, all of which predicted substantially lower numbers of residential burglaries. The years 1998–2001 appeared to offer an opportunity to test the utility of error correction models in the analysis of criminal behaviour. Subsequent to the forecasting exercise carried out in 1999, recorded outcomes have materialised, which point to the superiority of time series models compared to error correction models for the short-run forecasting of property crime. This result calls into question the concept of a long-run equilibrium relationship for crime.     

变权组合预测模型在大坝安全监测中的应用

简要介绍了组合预测模型的基本原理，该模型改进了单一模型考虑因素的片面性，但常规的组合预测模型的权系数是固定的。考虑到各种模型的预测精度的变化，以及大坝安全监测数据存在的突变、时效等因素，固定权系数的组合预测模型有待进一步改进。文中提出了变权系数组合预测模型，并将其用于实际的大坝安全监测工程。结果表明，变权组合预测模型的预报精度高于其他模型。是一种值得推广的方法。     

桃林口水库大坝人工监测项目管理软件的开发与应用

介绍了桃林口水库大坝人工监测项目管理软件研制的意义。对软件结构、开发环境、基本计算原理、主要功能进行了详细阐述；并以大坝垂直位移分析为例,详细讲述了回归分析在资料分析中的具体应用。该软件的应用使工程管理水平上了一个新台阶。     

Applicability of the flood‐pulse concept in a temperate floodplain river ecosystem: thermal and temporal components

Annual growth increments were calculated for blue catfish (Ictalurus furcatus) and flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris) from the lower Mississippi River (LMR) to assess hypothesized relationships between fish growth and floodplain inundation as predicted by the Flood‐Pulse Concept. Variation in catfish growth increment was high for all age classes of both species, and growth increments were not consistently related to various measures of floodplain inundation. However, relationships became stronger, and usually direct, when water temperature was integrated with area and duration of floodplain inundation. Relationships were significant for four of six age classes for blue catfish, a species known to utilize floodplain habitats. Though similar in direction, relationships were weaker for flathead catfish, which is considered a more riverine species. Our results indicate the Flood‐Pulse Concept applies more strongly to temperate floodplain‐river ecosystems when thermal aspects of flood pulses are considered. We recommend that future management of the LMR should consider ways to ‘recouple’ the annual flood and thermal cycles. An adaptive management approach will allow further determination of important processes affecting fisheries production in the LMR. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

天生桥梯级水电站联合调度决策支持系统建设经验

决策支持系统是水库优化调度实用化的发展方向，对于提高水电站生产效益和水库调度管理水平具有重要意义。结合国电公司重点科技项目“天生桥梯级水电站联合调度决策支持系统”的开发，阐述了开发水电调度决策支持系统实现水库调度实用化的经验:正确反映用户需求、增强用户对系统的控制、用模拟仿真弥补优化调度的不足、用数据库技术扩展水库优化调度实用化功能。     

故县水库的开发任务与调度运用

通过对故县水库水文特征分析,论述了水库开发任务和要求。并根据水库的洪水、径流、泥沙特性,拟定了水库防洪运用的控制条件和运用方式,以及水库的兴利运用水位和原则。对水库工程的投资和效益作出了分析和评价。     

贵州省境内尾矿库的选址、勘察和评价

尾矿废水和废渣通过库、坝址向库外的泄漏，是不允许的，将会对环境造成极大的危害。因此，恰当和合理的选择优良的尾矿库的场址，进行正确的勘察、评价和选择适宜的处理措施，是非常关键的，也是今后工程勘察中面临的新任务和课题。     

卡伦水库洪水风险调度效益浅析

本文主要从选择卡伦水库实行洪水风险调度的依据、水库洪水控制标准、调度原则及效益等方面论述卡伦水库实行洪水风险调度的重大意义。特别强调在水库洪水调度过程中适度承担风险,必须确保工程安全运行、科学调度,加强管理,依法防洪,合理蓄水,要正确把握水库安全度汛与水资源合理利用的关系,正确处理防洪与兴利的关系,正确处理风险与效益的关系,充分发挥水库的综合效益。适度承担风险进行水库洪水调度,既充分利用雨洪资源,又尽最大可能变水害为水利,实现雨洪资源化,达到人、水与自然和谐共处,促进经济社会协调发展。     

用环境水利理念和方法建设富锦市城市防洪工程

本文结合富锦市城区堤防建设论述了城市防洪建设应从单一防洪目标逐步过渡到区域性多目标治理。以水利工 程为载体,推动促进环境的改善,实现防洪、水资源、生态环境以及城市景观建设的协调统一。     

Monitoring water quality in reservoirs with IRS-1A-LISS-I

An attempt has been made to quantify the relationship between the variation in IRS-IA-LISS-I (Indian Remote Sensing Satellite-1A Linear Imaging Self-Scanning System) radiance data and field measured change in secchi disc depth. Secchi disc depth was measured for 47 predetermined sampling locations on reservoir surface water. At extinction depth (secchi depth), water samples were collected from all the sampling locations. Suspended sediments of eight locations representing various reaches of the reservoir were selected for mineralogical, particle size and optical properties analysis. The LISS-I radiance value in band 1 (0.45–0.52µm) band 2 (0-52–0.59 µm) and band 3 (0.62–0.68 µm) were used in a regression analysis. The absorption infrared band 4 (0.77–0.86 µm) was not included in the analysis. In these, the dependable variable was secchi depth (SD) and the LISS-I-radiance data was the estimator variable. Forty-seven data sets of 20 October 1988 from Tawa reservoir surface water were used to obtain an estimator equation for SD. The verification of the estimator equation was tested by applying it to a data set of 21 measurements of 28 September 1988 for this reservoir. The coefficient of correlation between observed and estimated values for the 28 September 1988 data set wasr=0.92 for SD, indicating that the equation could accurately predict the water clarity (SD) for this reservoir on new occasions from IRS-IA-LISS-I spectral data. It is shown that mineral composition and optical properties of suspended sediments influence the reflected radiance of water quality. It is concluded that IRS-IA-LISS-I data provide a useful means of mapping water quality in reservoir.