珠江百年洪患简要回顾与思考

重点回顾百年来珠江流域1915、1949、1959、1982、1994、1996和1998年等7场典型大洪水的概况与灾害及经济损失情况。从中思考珠江流域洪水频繁的原因，除了暴雨、台风暴雨等自然因素，还受社会因素影响。针对问题得出今后珠江流域防洪措施的建议。     

穿河管道安全性研究分析

以典型的河道底部沟堤穿河管段为研究对象,通过试验研究和理论分析,对河流河势、洪水特性及防护覆盖层与穿河管段安全性之间的关系进行研究,并对试验研究和工程设计中应解决的主要问题,进行分析论述,可供类似的穿河管道安全性研究和工程设计借鉴,以便找到较符合实际的穿河管道的设计方法。     

短期降雨预报在汛限水位动态控制中的应用

以丹江口水库为例，根据考虑降雨预报的水库汛期限制水位控制的新理念，研究了利用短期降雨预报信息进行水库汛限水位动态控制的调度方式；同时分析了在发生降雨预报误差时，汛限水位动态控制的风险率以及大坝所能抗御洪水标准的变化，概化计算了抬高汛限水位增加的发电效益。结果表明，在不增加丹江口水库及其上下游防护对象风险的前提下，抬高汛限水位可以为丹江口水库带来较大的经济效益。     

温峡口水库大坝除险加固技术方案研究

温峡口水库是全国首批重点病险水库之一,大坝存在严重的渗漏破坏问题,多次直接灌浆试验均未获成功,曾多年做过多种工程方案的比较,因大多存在经济或技术上的困难而未付诸实施.提出采用高压喷射灌浆技术建筑一定高度的连续高喷墙体,截断基岩表层裂隙和强风化层的渗漏并形成灌浆盖板,进而实施基岩防渗帷幕灌浆,经现场试验,该方案获得成功,并于温峡口水库大坝除险加固工程中付诸实施.     

3S技术在库区移民中的应用

目前库区移民大多还是采用传统的调查统计方法,不仅耗费人力、物力和财力,且精度受到人为因素影响,这种方法明显不适合于现代移民工作的需要.地理信息系统、遥感和全球定位系统目前已广泛地应用于资源环境调查、灾害监测等多方面,技术成熟,影像分辨率越来越高,光谱越来越丰富,因此有必要将3S技术应用于库区工作中.论述了3S技术在库区移民工作,包括淹没实物指标调查、移民规划设计、灾害监测与调查、环境评价中的应用原理和方法,总结和回顾了目前国内在这方面所开展的工作,并建议尽早将这些技术应用于移民工作中.     

太子河流域汛期水资源利用研究

汛期洪水是太子河流域水资源的主要组成部分。充分利用汛期水资源已经成为太子河流域水资源可持续利用的重要问题。本文分析了太子河流域汛期水资源的特性。对汛期水资源的利用进行了总结，并分析了存在的主要问题。     

Modelling Optimum Sites for Locating Reservoirs in Tropical Environments

A team of specialists normally carries out the task of locating reservoir sites based on general guidelines, technical knowledge and experience. Consequently, the procedures used are not based on a defined criteria in addition to being time consuming and expensive. Furthermore, the failure of a number of dams and the increase in environmental awareness will require the inclusion ofenvironmental and social factors in the processes besides economy. In this study, a criteria was developed and implementedto locate potential sites for reservoirs in the Langkawi Island, Malaysia based on all relevant factors including: topography, geology, hydrology, land use/cover types and settlements. A satellite imagery and digitized geological and elevation maps were utilized to generate the necessary data layers for the developed criteria. Then IDRISI, a raster based GIS was employed to implement the criteria using the Boolean and the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) methods. The Boolean method produced five reservoir sites with the 70 Mld water capacity, two of which corresponded well with a field-based study. Whilst theproposed site with the 90 Mld water capacity did not correspond with the field based study. The WLC method produced five sites with the 70 Mld water capacity, three of which matched those of the field study. Whilst for the 90 Mld water requirement, two potential sites were produced and both have matched those of thefield study. The outcomes indicated that the developed criteria were sensitive to physical, environmental and economical settingson the Langkawi Island. Furthermore, GIS and remote sensing can be useful tools for generating, manipulating and handling relevant data layers and ultimately providing management optionsfor decision makers.     

Using Genetic Algorithms to Estimate and Validate Bioeconomic Models: The Case of the Ibero-atlantic Sardine Fishery

Synopsis The Neo-classical approach to fisheries management is based on designing and applying bioeconomic models. Traditionally, the basic bioeconomic models have used pre-established non-linear functional forms (logistic, Cobb–Douglas) in order to try to reflect the dynamics of the renewable resources under study. This assumption might cause misspecification problems and, in consequence, a loss of predictive ability. In this work we intend to verify if there is a bias motivated by employing the said non-linear parametric perspective. For this purpose, we employ a novel non-linear and non-parametric prediction method, called Genetic Algorithms, and we compare its results with those obtained from the traditional methods.     

淮河蓄滞洪区调度与运用初探

淮河蓄滞洪区承担着滞蓄洪水和居民生存发展的双重作用。蓄滞洪区调度要树立洪水风险管理的理念,以准确的雨水情预报作为依据,对不同量级洪水明确不同保护重点和目标,作出合理的蓄滞洪区调度和运用决策,最大限度地减轻洪涝灾害造成的损失。     

黄河禹潼河段近期冲淤特点及防洪形势分析

在对禹潼河段近期冲淤特点深入分析后指出：该河段近期河道淤积量尤其是主槽淤积量明显增加，滩槽高差减小，河槽排洪能力下降，已建工程防洪标准降低，工程临背差加大，险情频繁发生，防洪形势严峻。