我国国债的风险评估与防范

从国债的可持续性、国债的货币扩张效应、国债对经济增长的影响三个层面评估了我国当前的国债风险，并针对我国的国债特点，提出了防范国债风险的措施。     

对流域水电建设档案科学管理的研究

介绍清江公司从流域水电建设的特点出发,研究流域水电建设工程档案的完整性、准确性,确保工程质量,提高工程管理水平,将大量的档案信息资源转化为科学知识,为流域水电开发服务,取得显著的经济和社会效益的情况。     

特大型桥梁工程地质勘察区域地壳稳定性研究

重大工程区域地壳稳定性研究，是工程前期工程地质勘察的重要内容之一，并越来越多地为工程建设所重视。大桥工程地质勘察以往对此涉及较少，也无明确的统一规定，以长江上所建特大桥为例，对此项工程作了些探索性的研究，重点研究的问题是：区域构造环境及构造变形，地壳结构和深部构造，新构造活动，断裂活动，地震活动等，为大桥建设宏观决策和抗震设计提供依据。     

黄河黑山峡河段大柳树水库比小观音水库原始库容多40亿m3的作用

一级开发大柳树高坝原始库容比二级开发小观音高坝多 4 0亿m3 ,库容大带来的好处体现在 5～ 7月可多向下游增供水量 ,缓解下游河道断流 ;延长泄放清水时间 ;增加发电效益 ;满足宁蒙河段防凌要求 ;增加汛期集中泄水 ,减缓下游河道淤积萎缩 ;满足南水北调西线工程水量调节要求等。为了更好优化配置黄河水资源 ,从全局和长远利益考虑 ,应采用一级开发方案 ,修建大柳树高坝大库     

永定新河治理工程几个关键问题的研究

永定新河是天津市防洪的北部防线。由于受海相来沙淤积 ,河道行洪能力大幅度下降。针对永定新河治理工程设计中涉及到的河道淤积治理方案、闸位比选、防潮闸结构型式及施工方法、闸下减淤清淤措施等诸多问题进行了分析和研究 ,提出了相应的措施和建议     

几种地下水易污性评价方法在徐州张集地区的应用

选择GOD法、DRASTIC法S、INTACS法及SI法4种易污性评价方法用于徐州张集地区的地下水易污性评价,应用GIS/ARCINFO输出张集地区的地下水易污性指标图。不同易污性评价方法对张集地区裂隙岩溶地下水的易污性评价得到了不同的结论,经分析,SI法更适用于张集地区的实际情况。具体应用时,要根据评价地区的实际条件,并和评价地区污染监测情况结合,选择合适的易污性评价方法评价地下水的易污性。     

关于混凝土四面体截流材料的探讨

通过对比混凝土四面体与特大块石这两种截流材料的抗冲稳定性和施工的方便性,分析了混凝土四面体截流材料在工程应用中存在的问题。指出:①混凝土四面体密度、综合稳定系数、化引球形粒径都偏小,在龙口的抗冲稳定性不如特大块石;②混凝土四面体制作麻烦,成本高,占地面积大,装运困难,抛投强度低,施工不如特大块石方便;③在截流施工中宜优先使用特大块石,慎用混凝土四面体。     

Modelling the effects of dam removal on migratory walleye (Sander vitreus) early life‐history stages

Many dams in the USA have outlived their intended purpose and an increasing number are being considered for removal. Yet, quantitative studies of the potential physical, biological and ecological responses are needed to assess dam removal decisions. In this paper, the responses of migratory walleye (Sander vitreus) to increased spawning habitat availability as a result of dam removal was studied by comparing scenarios with and without a high‐head dam in the Sandusky River (Ohio), a major tributary to Lake Erie. A conceptual, ecological model was proposed to define the relationship between hydrodynamics and walleye spawning, egg hatching, larval drift and survival. A mathematical, ecological model of the early life‐history stages was then developed and coupled with time series of depth and velocity predictions over the spawning grounds from a 1‐D hydrodynamic model. Model simulations were run for 1984–1993 for both the with‐ and without‐dam scenarios to assess the potential benefit of dam removal. The simulation results demonstrated that velocity, depth and water temperature are major factors influencing adult walleye spawning success. Without the dam, 10 times the amount of spawning habitat would be available for walleye to spawn. This increase in spawning habitat area resulted in up to five times the total egg deposition and seven times the larval output to the nursing grounds, based on the assumption that 5% of the walleye population of Lake Erie migrated up the Sandusky River to spawn. We concluded that the spawning habitat in the current condition (with the dam) is limiting and additional spawning habitat upstream could significantly increase the number of larval walleye drifting to Lake Erie. The model sensitivity analysis showed that the number of walleye migrating up the river in spring is the dominant factor for larval recruitment to the lake. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大坝洪水漫顶风险评估

洪水漫顶是导致大坝溃坝的主要原因之一,大坝洪水漫顶风险评估是大坝风险评估的重要组成部分。为此,简要介绍了大坝洪水漫顶的风险模型,并通过实例详细地讨论了模型中各有关参数的不确定性处理方法,探讨了入库洪水的不确定性对洪水漫顶风险率的影响以及按规范设计的大坝的防洪能力问题。     

Effect of sampling density on the measurement of stream condition indicators in two lowland Australian streams

There is widespread application of indicators to the assessment of environmental condition of streams. These indicators are intended for use by managers in making various comparative and absolute assessments and often have a role in resource allocation and performance assessment. Therefore, the problem of formally defining confidence in the results is important but difficult because the sampling strategies used are commonly based on a compromise between the requirements of statistical rigour and the pragmatic issues of access and resources. It is rare to see this compromise explicitly considered and consequently there is seldom quantification of the uncertainty that could affect the confidence a manager has in an indicator. In this paper, we present a method for quantitatively assessing the tradeoffs between sampling density and uncertainty in meeting various monitoring objectives. Assessments using judgement‐based representative reaches are shown to be unreliable; instead a sampling approach is recommended based on the random selection of measuring sites. A detailed dataset was collected along two streams in Victoria, Australia, and the effect of sampling density was assessed by subsampling from this dataset with precision related to the number of sites assessed per reach length and the intensity of the sampling at each site. The sampling scheme to achieve a given precision is shown to depend on the monitoring objective. In particular, three objectives were considered: (1) making a baseline assessment of current condition; (2) change detection; and (3) detection of a critical threshold in condition. Change detection is shown to be more demanding than assessing baseline condition with additional sampling effort required to achieve the same precision. Sampling to detect a critical threshold depends on nominating acceptable values of Type I and II error and the size of the effect to be detected. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.