中国当代消费形态下的广告理论述评

中国用几十年走完了西方发达国家一个世纪的经济发展历程，各种理论在中国广告市场得到广泛实践。这些广告理论与消费形态是否契舍，决定了广告理论能否正确地指导实践、引导消费。中国当代消费形态是以消费者为中心，并呈现出许多中国特色，因此，必须进一步完善和发展广告理论以适应新消费形态。     

Generalized piecewise linear histograms

We extend the concept of piecewise linear histogram introduced recently by Beirlant, Berlinet and Györfi. The disadvantage of that histogram is that in many models it takes on negative values with probability close to 1. We show that for a wide set of models, the extended class of estimates contains a bona fide density with probability tending to 1 as the sample size n increases to infinity. The mean integrated absolute error in the extended class of estimators decreases with the same rate n^–2/5 as in the original narrower class.     

采用ZnO灭磁时阀片均流/均能的探讨

从ZnO电阻的非线性特性出发,对采用ZnO作为灭磁电阻时阀片的均流/均能进行理论论述,指出阀片均能性能的好坏主要依赖于阀片自身的特性;分析比较了ZnO阀片的不同选择方法对均流/均能的影响,指出阀片的均流/均能很大程度上取决于可供选择的阀片的库存量.该研究为发电机励磁系统的安全稳定运行提供了有力的保证.     

Statistical Decision Problems and Bayesian Nonparametric Methods

This paper considers parametric statistical decision problems conducted within a Bayesian nonparametric context. Our work was motivated by the realisation that typical parametric model selection procedures are essentially incoherent. We argue that one solution to this problem is to use a flexible enough model in the first place, a model that will not be checked no matter what data arrive. Ideally, one would use a nonparametric model to describe all the uncertainty about the density function generating the data. However, parametric models are the preferred choice for many statisticians, despite the incoherence involved in model checking, incoherence that is quite often ignored for pragmatic reasons. In this paper we show how coherent parametric inference can be carried out via decision theory and Bayesian nonparametrics. None of the ingredients discussed here are new, but our main point only becomes evident when one sees all priors—even parametric ones—as measures on sets of densities as opposed to measures on finite-dimensional parameter spaces.     

土石坝工程领域的若干创新与发展

我国高土石坝数量居世界之首,保证高坝大库建设与长期运行安全是国家经济和公共安全保障的重大需求。系统总结了长江科学院近年来在土石坝工程领域的若干创新与发展。提出了基于“旁压模量当量密度法”的粗粒料级配相似理论试验方法;介绍了研发的系列CT三轴仪,实现了粗粒料组构要素的定量测量;提出了三轴试验中加载板与试样之间由滑动摩擦变为滚动摩擦、整体式接触变为分散式接触的减摩新方法,研发了相关减摩装置;研制了大尺寸、高压力、微摩擦、刚柔复合加载的土工真三轴仪;揭示了粗粒料真实三维应力条件下的强度与变形变化规律、湿化与蠕变变形特性;构建了粗粒料三参量非线性K-K-G剪胀模型、六参数湿化模型、九参数蠕变数学模型及相应的参数确定方法;基于当量密度法的原创思想,提出了利用旁压试验间接确定超百米级深厚覆盖层现场密度的试验方法。上述研究成果可为高土石坝工程建设提供重要科技支撑。     

中国西南喀斯特石漠化治理现状及对策

我国西南喀斯特地区石漠化问题严重,虽然通过石漠化治理措施遏制了整体扩张趋势,但是治理形势并不乐观,生态环境质量有待进一步改善。针对中国西南石漠化治理存在的治理成果难以有效维持、无法彻底消除人地矛盾、治理难度不断提高等问题,在系统梳理西南喀斯特地区的特殊性、石漠化成因、西南喀斯特地区石漠化综合治理模式的基础上,从重视区域整体治理与系统修复、探索喀斯特生态产品价值实现机制与途径、加强喀斯特地区生态补偿、探索喀斯特地区社会-生态系统的协同机制四方面,提出了面向区域整体治理与绿色发展的对策建议,为我国西南地区生态环境和社会经济协同高质量发展提供科学参考。     

220kV线路工程滑坡地质灾害危险性分析

文章介绍了喜德县红莫升压站-鲁基升压站220kV线路工程滑坡地质灾害危险性现状评估和预测评估,确定了评估区内滑坡地质灾害对工程的影响,以及工程建设加剧已有滑坡地质灾害的危险性和自身可能遭受已存在滑坡地质灾害的危险性。据此评估结果,为工程在建设过程中提出了具体的防治处理措施建议。     

Locally minimum variance unbiased estimator in a discontinuous density function

The exact forms of the locally minimum variance unbiased estimators and their variances are given in the case of a discontinuous density function.     

The topography of metropolitan employment: Identifying centers of employment in a polycentric urban area

While it is well recognized that US metropolitan areas are polycentric, there is little consensus as to the appropriate method for identifying concentrations of employment within them. Existing methods suffer from strong assumptions about parametric form, misspecification, or reliance on local knowledge to calibrate model parameters. This paper introduces a new nonparametric method for identifying subcenters. Results indicate that this, more flexible, nonparametric approach yields greater accuracy with regard to both urban and suburban centers compared with other approaches. This approach should provide better data for the numerous topics that depend on the spatial accounting of employment within metropolitan areas.     

我国企业国际科技合作现状及对策研究

文章从经济和科技全球化背景下企业国际科技合作的战略地位分析入手,介绍了我国企业国际科技合作概况,重点分析了企业对外科技合作存在的主要问题,提出了推进企业国际科技合作发展的8点对策建议。