山西省孝义市近40年气候变化特征分析

为了深入研究山西省孝义市气候变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall检验、滑动T检验及Morlet小波变换等方法对孝义市1975-2015年气候要素进行趋势估计、突变检验、周期分析及发展趋势预测。结果表明:近40年来,孝义市年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,突变年份为1996年,存在32、9 a长周期;年降雨量呈不显著下降趋势,突变年份为1990年,存在32、6 a长周期;年蒸发量呈显著性上升趋势,突变年份为1997年,存在32、10 a长周期;年平均相对湿度呈显著下降趋势,突变年份为1982、2003年,存在15、32 a长周期。孝义市1975-2015年年代际气候经历了"冷湿-暖湿-暖干"的变化过程,预测全境2017-2030年年代际气候将经历"冷湿-暖干"的变化过程。     

昭通横江流域年径流预测

针对昭通横江由南到北贯穿昭通全境,水资源量丰富,但南北差异大,南部少、北部多的特点,根据流域内水文站实测年径流、大气环流指数、海温指数及其他指数等资料系列,采用多元回归分析法拟合1981—2010年径流,建立了预测模型,验证、预测分析了2011—2016年径流量。结果表明:干流控制站预测精度高于干流上段及支流代表站,水利工程建设等人类活动影响是导致出现这样结果的主要原因;多元回归分析在横江流域径流预测中具有一定的适应性,但因指标的差异及相关参数可获取性的差异,预测结果存在区域间、等级间的差别。     

长江大保护与流域生态学

长江经济带发展的基本点是"共抓大保护、不搞大开发"。在梳理了长江流域主要生态环境问题基础上,从长江大保护的核心是统筹山水林田湖草、山水林田湖草生命共同体即是流域生态系统、流域生态系统是典型的集合生态系统的角度,论述了长江大保护与流域生态学的关系,并从科学研究、规划管理及教育宣传等方面展开思考提出建议,为实现长江大保护的国家需求提供服务。     

正弦波下砂岩ms级损伤预测模型

为获得毫秒(ms)级正弦波损伤变量预测模型,对岩样在不破坏情况下进行了不同波形不同频率的轴向力加卸载试验。提出了不同步时间段的定义,进而获得不同峰值荷载下不考虑不同步时间条件下的动态泊松比分别与即时荷载、即时横向长度、即时轴向高度之间的线性关系,从而得到线性关系中系数与峰值荷载间的拟合公式,即可联立不同已知条件,通过少量几个加载力峰值下的试验数据,对任意峰值荷载下动态泊松比与相关参数间的线性关系进行预测。以此为基础研究得到,在误差允许的范围内,采用动态泊松比与即时横向长度的线性关系,推导出体积应变、损伤变量的计算公式和方法,可以很好地对加卸载过程中岩样的体积应变、损伤的变化做出ms级的精确预测,也为在已知少量循环试验下获得岩石动态参数,即可对ms级的损伤进行精确预测的模型提供了方法。     

Do we really care about Biodiversity?

This paper addresses from an economic perspective the issue of global biodiversity conservation. It challenges the perception that the world really cares a great deal about biodiversity and is prepared to pay the full cost of maintaining this stock of natural capital. Despite the existence of a plethora of international agreements there still seems to be a global ‘deficit of care’ surrounding efforts to combat challenges such as those posed by global warming and biodiversity conservation. More light can be thrown on the degree of care by measuring both the actual expenditures and the stated willingness to pay for biodiversity conservation. However, actual expenditures are much lower than willingness to pay estimates recorded in the published literature. Using the criteria that the ‘right’ amount of conservation effort is one where the marginal economic benefits from conservation just equal the marginal costs of conservation, the paper explores the biodiversity conservation conundrum and concluded that, on the available evidence, the world does not care too much about this natural capital stock and bequests to future generations. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Mortality,Human Capital and Persistent Inequality

Available evidence suggests high intergenerational correlation of economic status and persistent disparities in health status between the rich and the poor. This paper proposes a mechanism linking the two. We introduce health capital into a two-period overlapping generations model. Private health investment improves the probability of surviving from the first period of life to the next and, along with education, enhances an individual’s labor productivity. Poorer parents are of poor health, unable to invest much in reducing mortality risk and improving their human capital. Consequently, they leave less for their progeny. Despite convex preferences and technologies, initial differences in economic and health status may perpetuate across generations when annuities markets are imperfect.Additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation. Additional support was provided by the National Science Foundation.     

我国财产税制度存在的缺陷及其改革构想

财产税不仅是一种历史悠久的税收形态，而且是当今各国税制体系的重要组成部分，具有其他税种难以替代的作用。我国现行财产税制度在改革开放后虽然有所发展，但仍存在着税种缺失、税制老化等诸多问题，亟待改革。     

Economic Valuation of Health for Environmental Policy: Comparing Alternative Approaches. Introduction and Overview

Protecting human health is a primary goal of environmental policy and economic evaluation of health can help policy-makers judge the relative worth of alternative actions. Economists use two distinct approaches in normatively evaluating health. Whereas environmental economists use benefit-cost analysis supported by monetary valuation in terms of willingness-to-pay, health economists evaluate interventions based on cost-effectiveness or cost-utility analysis (CEA), using quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) or similar indexes. This paper provides background on the controversy about the relative merits of these approaches and introduces the remaining papers in the special issue. These papers (with one exception) were presented at a conference sponsored by the Department of Economics at the University of Central Florida with support from the US Environmental Protection Agency. Although CEA might not lead to substantially different implications for environmental policy than benefit-cost analysis, and QALY may provide a benefit transfer tool to fill gaps in the morbidity valuation literature, the papers in this issue raise serious concerns about the suitability of QALY-based CEA for environmental regulatory analysis. QALY does not in general appropriately represent individual preferences for health and CEA is neither independent of income distribution nor adequate to assess efficiency.     

中英电信"双寡头垄断"模式比较研究

中国电信南北分拆以后,将在固定电话和移动电话两个业务领域形成新一轮"双寡头垄断"竞争格局.英国是率先实行"双寡头垄断"作为过度,最终走向电信全面开放竞争的典范.中国电信业在1994～1999年第一阶段改革中,曾试图仿效"英国模式",构建中国电信和中国联通的"双寡头垄断",最终以失败告终.在中国即将形成新一轮"双寡头垄断"竞争格局之时,我们有必要通过对英国电信改革的理论背景、具体实施过程、取得的成就的回顾,探求英国"双寡头垄断"成功的奥秘,并为中国新一轮电信重组所借鉴,提升中国的电信业国际竞争力,更好地应对WTO的挑战.     

生态系统服务测度下市域生态空间管控体系构建

生态空间承载着人类、动植物和自然生态多种过程，是生态系统服务功能的策源地和枢纽区。以实施生态空间管控为导引，借助多源数据和ArcGIS、C-Plan系统工具，核心应用系统保护规划(SCP)技术，建立生态服务测度下市域生态空间管控体系的构建方法。基于此，以哈尔滨为例，以不可替代性为表征实现生态空间测度指标综合与功效评价，构建生态空间关键区识别、功能区优划以及网络格局优化模型，提出“重点保护-分区指引-格局优化”的市域生态空间管控体系，为新型城镇化及绿色发展战略的实施奠定科学基础和提供技术支撑。