Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

服务型制造项目治理的影响因素及其作用路径

在网络结构和治理模式影响服务型制造项目治理绩效的相关研究成果的基础上,加入中间变量——治理能力。运用结构方程模型方法,利用调查问卷数据进一步分析了网络结构、治理模式、治理能力与治理绩效之间的影响关系,构建了服务型制造项目治理影响路径图。结果表明:网络结构和治理模式对项目治理能力都有显著的直接影响;治理能力对项目治理绩效有直接的、显著的正向影响;网络结构与治理模式互相影响。     

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in South Africa and Nigeria: structural breaks analysis

The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has continued to generate interest from both the academia and financial industry players for many years. This study conducts an empirical investigation into the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for the two largest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa – South Africa and Nigeria. Our methodology accounts for structural breaks in the data and the long-run relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets. The results of multivariate causality tests with structural breaks showed that causality runs from exchange rates to domestic stock prices in Nigeria (flow channel) while in South Africa, no causality exists between domestic stock prices and exchange rates. The results also reveal that there is causality from the London stock market to both countries’ stock markets, thus showing that international stock markets are driving both the Nigerian and South African stock markets.     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

Taming the City? Ideas,Structural Power and the Evolution of British Banking Policy Amidst the Great Financial Meltdown

We are increasingly learning more about the contingencies and independent variables that shape the structural power of business and financial interests. This paper contributes to this research by analysing factors that led to weakening in the structural power of financial interests in the City of London in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 crisis. We focus on under-researched mediators of structural power dynamics, especially the context of action and the agency and ideas of state leaders. Prior to the crisis, closed regulatory policy and a prevailing discourse premised upon the notion of market efficiency, helped to reinforce the structural power of the UK banking and financial sector. After the crisis heightened politicisation, more assertive state leadership, and especially ideational revision, has increasingly challenged the power of the City. We illustrate this through an examination of the Independent Commission on Banking's proposals in relation to the ‘ring fencing’ of investment and retail banks.     

The Political Economy of Mobility Partnerships – Structural Power in the EU's External Migration Policy

The research on European Union (EU) external relations and the EU's own official discourse frequently portray the EU as a soft power that provides its neighbourhood with good governance principles. The European Mobility Partnerships (EU MPs) can be considered the most recent manifestation of this rhetoric. Studies on EU MPs reflect a narrow understanding of power. This paper aims to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the power dimension inherent in the EU's external relations. It develops a neogramscian theoretical framework to challenge the rhetoric of the EU as a soft power and normative hegemon. Drawing on semi-structured expert interviews and textual analysis of documents, it seeks to reveal whether and in what ways socio-economic power dynamics shape the EU MPs. This article argues that while, at the beginning, the design of the EU MPs as a policy tool has been very much influenced by neoliberal ideas such as the market-oriented liberalisation of mobility and the flexibilisation of labour, implementation is marked by the neo-mercantilist approach of restricting immigration and maximising the efficiency of readmission. Applying a critical political economy concept of power is helpful in understanding how market forces influence EU external migration policy, transcending a narrow understanding of power.     

电网规划设计覆冰观测研究需求与经济分析

电网规划设计由于缺少详尽的区域覆冰资料,给走廊方案优化和工程投资分析带来一定的困难。覆冰资料缺乏是当前电网建设质量与工期保障的一大瓶颈问题。在总结我国电网受覆冰灾害影响的基础上,介绍了覆冰资料缺乏的现状,论述了其对电网建设的重要性;深入分析了电网规划设计在技术和经济上对覆冰资料的需求状况。     

浅析在全球化背景下芭蕾舞服装设计形式与风格的变迁

设计的全球化在今天的社会发展中是一个大的趋势,伴随着经济的快速增长,人们在物质生活快速提升的同时,精神文化生活的质量也在不断提高。作为一门高贵的舞蹈艺术和提升人们审美品位的艺术形式,芭蕾舞的革新也在不断地得到改善,其芭蕾舞服装设计形式与风格也在不断地变化,由传统向现代、由古典向自然的方向发展。     

供给侧改革中资源与能源行业去产能政策效果研究

中国经济历经复苏和快速增长阶段后,部分产业出现产能过剩现象,产业结构的不均衡变化导致了GDP增速放缓。2016年初中国政府提出供给侧结构性改革,旨在通过“三去一降一补”政策调整产业结构,刺激经济发展。本文构建了一个包含资源与能源产业的一般均衡模型,量化分析中国供给侧结构性改革的政策效果。研究表明,在去产能政策削减上游资源产业的产出后,政策冲击会传导至下游能源产业,导致化石能源相对于绿色能源产量下降14.04%,能源结构实现优化。随后的政策对比实验引入了新能源补贴、碳排放税征收及资源税收缴等财政手段,与去产能政策进行效果对比。实验结果显示,3种政策在不同程度上实现了能源结构调整,其中征收碳税的政策使化石能源占比降幅最大,但同时会使资本利率上升,加重企业融资成本;新能源补贴与资源税的政策也可以实现调控目标,但与去产能政策相比效果更弱。     

中国旅游上市公司经营业绩评价

首先对旅游上市公司的外延进行了合理界定,然后根据旅游业自身特点从会计学角度提出了旅游上市公司经营业绩的评价方法——即结构性评价和“含金量”评价。同时也发现了传统经营业绩评价中存在的一些问题,并提出了自己的看法。