Modelling tourist flow association for tourism demand forecasting

The purpose of this study is to examine tourism demand for Singapore from 1995 to 2013 by six major origin countries which belong to three different regions. Unlike prior tourism research, we take into account the dependence relations among the different tourist flows via copula. Copula is a statistical model of dependence and measurement of association. Specifically, we investigate the association between two tourist flows in each region. Based on empirical copula estimation, the Frank function has been identified as the most appropriate to capture the pairwise dependence structures of tourist flows. The copula-based approach combined with econometric models is proposed for tourism demand analysis that can be used to predict tourist arrivals. We apply the copula-ARDL and copula-ECM frameworks to generate joint forecasts of tourist arrivals from three regions. The findings show that the forecast performance of the Frank copula-based model outperforms the benchmark model which corresponds to the independence structure (no association) of tourist flows.     

开放合作创新视角下基于云模式的物流资源一体化集成决策研究

基于开放合作创新的思路，文中提出一种全新的物流资源运作管理模式---“云模式”，探讨在开放合作创新的平台上，对多种紧密耦合且相互制约的物流资源进行同步协同和整合的方法与途径。“云模式”的本质是通过松弛物流资源与其所有者之间的归属关系，为社会全体物流资源提供一个开放的平台。物流资源可以通过这个平台，以合作的方式有机的集成在一起，从而实现资源的优化配置、提高物流资源的利用率，降低社会物流的总成本，提高客户对物流服务满意度的目标。文中的研究契合了当前政府相关职能部门和企业在管理决策上的实际需要。     

黄土边坡稳定性分析的概率方法

黄土边坡稳定性分析是一个不确定性问题,包含很多不确定性因素,而且土的抗剪强度可变性很大。在进行了大量实验的前提下,估计抗剪强度的可变性,运用概率的方法进行边坡的稳定性分析,计算黄土边坡的失稳概率。     

Additional deepwater sampling of prey fish in Lake Michigan annual bottom trawl survey reveals new insights for depth distribution dynamics

Beginning in 2013, sites at the 128-m bottom depth contour were added to the sampling design of the annual Lake Michigan bottom trawl survey for prey fish, which has been conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center (GLSC) each fall since 1973, to better assess fish depth distributions in a changing ecosystem. The standard sampling design included bottom depths from 9 to 110 m, although the GLSC also sporadically conducted bottom trawl tows at the 128-m bottom depth contour during 1973–1988. Enactment of this new sampling design in 2013 revealed that mean biomass density of deepwater sculpins (Myoxocephalus thompsonii) at the 128-m depth exceeded the sum of mean biomass densities at shallower depths, indicating that the bulk of the deepwater sculpin population is residing in waters deeper than 110 m. Thus, our findings supported the hypothesis that the depth distribution of the deepwater sculpin population had shifted to deeper waters beginning in 2007, thereby explaining, at least in part, the marked decline in deepwater sculpin abundance since 2006 based on the standard sampling design. In contrast, our results did not support the hypothesis that the slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) population had shifted to deeper waters sometime after 2000. A portion of the burbot (Lota lota) population may have also shifted in depth distribution to waters deeper than 110 m after 2007, based on our results. Our findings have served as an impetus to further expand the range of depths sampled in our bottom trawl survey.     

建构新政治经济学的关键:社会主义经济正义的建构

中国迫切需要自己的新政治经济学,建构中国国富论的关键是要建构社会主义经济正义。这需要对经济正义进行系统的思考和对马克思的经济正义思想进行时代的重新挖掘。张雄教授说"经济活动中,如果一种状态既是平等的,而又具有帕累托效率,那它就被描述为‘经济正义’的。"这一概念精准地抓住了马克思正义思想的内核。马克思的正义思想尤其是经济正义思想打开了现代正义讨论的新视域。他特别强调人的本质和历史发展纬度的正义评价原则,强调经济制度正义的核心地位,强调人民经济正义的人民主体价值纬度和直面现实问题寻求解决路径的务实精神,更强调历史的现实的"按劳分配"等经济正义方案的全面理解问题,这对于中国社会主义经济正义的现代构建和践行提供了理论基础和方向指导。     

A Kaleckian Perspective on Financialisation and Distribution in Three Main Eurozone Countries before and after the Crisis: France,Germany and Spain

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we examine if, and to what extent, a general Kaleckian analysis of the potential effects of financialisation on income shares in advanced capitalist economies is of relevance for the three Eurozone countries under investigation—France, Germany and Spain—in the period before the recent financial and economic crisis. Second, we study changes in the financialisation–distribution nexus that have occurred in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis. We find that the countries examined here have shown broad similarities regarding redistribution before the crisis, although there are some differences in the underlying determinants. These differences have continued during the period after the crisis and have led to different results in the development of distribution since then.     

Demand for Redistribution: Individuals’ Responses to Economic Setbacks

Economic circumstances have been argued to be a major determining factor of attitudes toward redistribution, but there is little well‐established evidence at the individual level. The Swedish National Election Studies are constructed as a rotating survey panel, which makes it possible to estimate the causal effect of economic changes. The empirical analysis shows that individuals who lose their job become considerably more supportive of redistribution. Yet, attitudes toward redistribution return to their initial level as economic prospects improve, suggesting that the effect is only temporary. While a job loss also changes attitudes toward the political parties, the probability of voting for the left‐wing is not affected.     

一种基于量子加密的软件定义网络南向安全防护策略

提出一种以量子加密技术为核心的软件定义网络（Software-defined Network，SDN）的南向安全防护策略，建立了基于量子密钥分发的SDN网络模型并分析了该模型下的身份认证、量子密钥分发和自适应免疫窃听流程。推导出了本策略下窃听攻击强度、用于检测窃听的量子态数目的比例α、系统发现窃听者的概率、密钥分发效率之间的定量关系。通过动态仿真分析确立了不同攻击强度下系统参数α的最优选值区间。SDN控制器可根据该仿真结果，动态地决策系统中α的取值进行自适应免疫密钥分发，实施更为精准的窃听免疫方案。     

安徽以增加知识价值为导向分配政策的实践研究

2017年10月,安徽省委省政府出台《关于实行以增加知识价值为导向分配政策的实施意见》。采取调查问卷的方式从五个方面跟踪总结了安徽省属高校院所对以增加知识价值为导向分配政策的执行情况,并对今后如何推动政策的进一步落实提出建议。