多年调节水库调蓄的影响因素判别与影响时长分析

以格兰杰因果关系检验为基础,提出了多年调节水库调蓄的影响因素判别与影响时长分析方法,并通过理论分析、实践总结、多元线性回归及相关关系显著性检验辅助判别因果关系的合理性。以黄河龙羊峡水库为例,结果表明：1990-2018年黄河天然径流量和地表水取水量均是龙羊峡水库补水量的格兰杰原因,影响时长均为2年,天然径流量和地表水取水量的当年值对龙羊峡水库补水量的影响强于前1年的影响;天然径流量与龙羊峡水库补水量间具有显著的线性相关关系,但地表水取水量与龙羊峡水库补水量间的线性相关关系较弱。结合龙羊峡水库调蓄机制和实践过程,发现天然径流量是龙羊峡水库调蓄的重要影响因素,地表水取水量对龙羊峡水库调蓄没有显著影响,但龙羊峡水库调蓄保障了黄河地表水的稳定供给。     

The adaptive approach for storage assignment by mining data of warehouse management system for distribution centres

Among distribution centre operations, order picking has been reported to be the most labour-intensive activity. Sophisticated storage assignment policies adopted to reduce the travel distance of order picking have been explored in the literature. Unfortunately, previous research has been devoted to locating entire products from scratch. Instead, this study intends to propose an adaptive approach, a Data Mining-based Storage Assignment approach (DMSA), to find the optimal storage assignment for newly delivered products that need to be put away when there is vacant shelf space in a distribution centre. In the DMSA, a new association index (AIX) is developed to evaluate the fitness between the put away products and the unassigned storage locations by applying association rule mining. With AIX, the storage location assignment problem (SLAP) can be formulated and solved as a binary integer programming. To evaluate the performance of DMSA, a real-world order database of a distribution centre is obtained and used to compare the results from DMSA with a random assignment approach. It turns out that DMSA outperforms random assignment as the number of put away products and the proportion of put away products with high turnover rates increase.     

Text and metatext in the resource‐based view

This paper distinguishes between text and metatext in the resource‐based view (RBV) – that is, the actual words and logic fundamental to the RBV (the text) and the traditions, interpretations and applications of the theory (the metatext). It argues that Kaufman's ( 2015 ) criticism of the RBV as applied to strategic human resource management actually focuses on RBV metatext and not text. Indeed, unlike some RBV metatext, RBV text actually has a great deal to say about research and practice in strategic human resource management.     

制度的博弈论解释批判——基于现实行路规则复杂多样性的分析

主流观点认为,制度是博弈过程中参与人的均衡策略,但对避免相向碰撞的行路规则的考察发现,现实中经济行为者采纳的惯例化规则远较制度的均衡策略论揭示的复杂多样。制度博弈均衡策略论的这种不充足解释力不仅仅是因为现有的制度博弈模型忽略了一些现实的基本行为策略,也因为博弈论框架只是一个有关社会交互问题的部分性分析框架,并不能覆盖所有的解决社会交互问题的方法。一个统一性的制度解释框架宜放弃博弈论的分析思路,更多地考虑制度的互补性问题。     

浅谈房屋权属登记薄的填制和对外利用规则

就本人在理论和实际工作中对自治区房屋权属登记簿的填制和对外利用规则谈谈个人的粗浅认识。     

Spatial modelling of claim frequency and claim size in non-life insurance

In this paper, models for claim frequency and average claim size in non-life insurance are considered. Both covariates and spatial random effects are included allowing the modelling of a spatial dependency pattern. We assume a Poisson model for the number of claims, while claim size is modelled using a Gamma distribution. However, in contrast to the usual compound Poisson model, we allow for dependencies between claim size and claim frequency. A fully Bayesian approach is followed, parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The issue of model comparison is thoroughly addressed. Besides the deviance information criterion and the predictive model choice criterion, we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. We give an application to a comprehensive data set from a German car insurance company. The inclusion of spatial effects significantly improves the models for both claim frequency and claim size, and also leads to more accurate predictions of the total claim sizes. Further, we detect significant dependencies between the number of claims and claim size. Both spatial and number of claims effects are interpreted and quantified from an actuarial point of view.     

International Market Segmentation and Cross-Export Strategies Development Case Study: Iranian Furniture Industry

ABSTRACT

By developing an international market and significant differences between countries in this regard, segmentation becomes an increasingly important concept in marketing. In this article, the international market of Iranian furniture industry is segmented and cross-exporting strategies are developed to increase the market share of Iranian furniture in each segment. To achieve this, two distance functions are introduced based on correlation between export groups to cluster countries with k-means algorithm. After market segmentation for increasing sales in each segment, cross-exporting strategies are predicted by extracting association rules in each segment based on Apriori algorithm to set export baskets.     

‘Free actors’ and organizations: critical remarks about the new career literature,based on French insights

What is the reality of contemporary careers? Have individuals become masters of their professional destiny? While the ‘new career literature’ puts forward the figure of an individual free to invent his/her career (the ‘free actor model’), this article shows that the changes purported to affect careers are less radical than they seem. Despite a weakening of environments, discriminating career mechanisms are still imposed on cadres, at least in France. Because individuals do not always have the means or the will to escape those mechanisms, ‘external clues’ continue to mark careers more than the new career literature supposes. To account for the realities observed in France, this paper proposes a specific view on careers, which highlights why career rules still exist in the country.     

A hybrid parallel genetic algorithm for yard crane scheduling

This paper aims at postulating a novel strategy in terms of yard crane scheduling. In this study, a dynamic scheduling model using objective programming for yard cranes is initially developed based on rolling-horizon approach. To resolve the NP-complete problem regarding the yard crane scheduling, a hybrid algorithm, which employs heuristic rules and parallel genetic algorithm (PGA), is then employed. Then a simulation model is developed for evaluating this approach. Finally, numerical experiments on a specific container terminal yard are used for system illustration. Computational results suggest that the proposed method is able to solve the problem efficiently.