基于技术生命周期的技术转让评价方法探讨

随着经济的快速发展，业界对技术的重要性认知与获取技术的需求日益增强。技术转让是获取技术的重要方式之一，对技术进行科学的评价是技术转让能否成功的关键。本文探讨了不同技术生命周期阶段的技术转让评价问题，以供参考。     

企业信息化过程中知识转移能力研究

考虑到企业信息化建设过程中知识转移的能力具有灰色性和模糊性的特点,传统的分析方法具有很大的局限性。本文采用基于信息熵权值的多层次灰色评价理论,对信息化过程中知识转移的能力的多级指标体系进行综合评判,为企业提供决策以及改进的依据,最后给出运用该方法的一个实例。该方法具有较强的实际应用价值。     

Valuing Food Store Access: Policy Implications for the Food Stamp Program

Food stamp recipients may lack access to larger stores, reducing the availability of nutritious food. Reliance on smaller stores may have undesirable impacts. Policy alternatives include limiting food stamp redemption to larger stores and subsidizing store development. I estimate that limiting redemption to supermarkets and grocery stores, or supermarkets alone, results in losses ranging from $499.2 million to $1.05 billion, or $1.17 billion to $2.44 billion (respectively) annual loss in food stamp recipient welfare nationwide. The impact of improving access is also significant, ranging from $333.6 million to $931.2 million.     

Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

The market’s view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons

Hall and Miles (1990) suggest an approach of estimating default probabilities of banks using stock market information, and in this paper we apply an aggregated version of their approach to banking sectors around the world in both developed and emerging economies. We study the market’s assessment of the probability of systemic banking crises world wide over the last decade, including the Asian crisis 1997–1998. In addition, we investigate whether there is a relationship between the failure probability and institutional features of the actual banking sector. The quality of governance and the degree of law and order in a country is found to be significantly negatively related to the market based failure probabilities as is an explicit deposit insurance during periods of crisis.     

大通河调水对水资源及生态环境的影响

基于生态需水、河流纳污能力、水环境容量等理论,分析研究大通河调水前后可能引起的河道生态环境各要素变化的程度和范围。结果表明,跨流域调水将引起不同河段水资源的剧烈变化,特别是天堂寺、享堂河段会产生断流,进而对河道内生态、水环境及河谷周边陆地生态产生显著影响。综合各方面需水要求,下泄月平均流量至少不小于1.1 m3/s。     

How Non-native Species in Lake Erie Influence Trophic Transfer of Mercury and Lead to Top Predators

Lake Erie's food web has been dramatically modified by exotic species. Both exotic dreissenid mussels and the round goby Neogobius melanastomus have shifted the food web from a pelagicbased to a benthic-based one, potentially creating a new pathway for contaminant transfer to top predators. Before the invasion of round gobies, few predators of dreissenids occurred in Lake Erie, allowing contaminants to be confined to these benthic organisms. The invasion of the round goby has produced a new pathway through which these contaminants can enter the food web. To characterize heavy-metal transfer through this new food web and to assess risk to humans, water, surficial sediment, dreissenid, round goby, and smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieui samples were collected at three sites during summers, 2002 and 2003, and analyzed for total lead (Pb), total mercury (Hg), and methyl mercury (MeHg). In addition, we compared smallmouth bass Pb and Hg concentrations to those measured in 1993/1994, before round gobies were prevalent. Pb biodiminished and MeHg biomagnified through the food web to smallmouth bass; patterns were similar among our three sites. Total Pb concentrations in smallmouth bass were higher before the incorporation of round gobies into their diet. We attributed this decline to changes in food web structure, changes in contaminant burdens in prey, or declines in sediment Pb concentrations in Lake Erie. By comparison, Hg concentrations in smallmouth bass changed little, before and after the round goby invasion, possibly due to a shift in diet that increased growth. Despite a decline in sediment Hg concentrations in Lake Erie, smallmouth bass continued to accumulate Hg at historical rates possibly because of their high consumption rates of benthivorous round gobies. As smallmouth bass continue to consume round gobies during their lives, their Hg concentrations may well continue to increase, potentially increasing the risk of Hg contamination to humans.     

水轮发电机组推力轴承油槽内流动及传热特性研究

为解决推力轴承瓦温过高的问题,采用数值模拟方法分析了某水轮发电机组推力轴承内循环冷却系统油槽内润滑油的流动及传热特性。结果表明,靠近镜板处油流速度大,远离镜板位置油流速度小;镜板内缘压力最低,沿着推力轴瓦径向向外压力逐渐增大;初始瓦温、初始油温一定时,随着水温降低,整体油温下降幅度并不大。根据研究结果,对推力轴承内循环冷却系统提出适当增大冷却器U型管直线段的长度、增大冷却器管径、提高冷却水的压力和流量、加大油冷却器铜管间距的改进建议。     

水工钢闸门主梁模糊失效概率计算方法研究

为合理计算水工钢闸门主梁模糊失效概率,分别将主梁相对变形当作一个随机变量及三个变量的组合,采用积分法、当量随机化方法及蒙特卡罗法进行了计算。当相对变形为一个随机量时,采用积分法及当量随机化方法计算,两者的差别在于积分法用隶属函数描述模糊限值,当量随机化方法是将模糊限值当量作为一个随机量。当相对变形看作三个变量的组合时采用蒙特卡罗法进行计算,该方法考虑了三个变量的分布特性,更符合实际情况,模糊限值也用随机量表示。计算表明,积分法与当量随机化方法结果相近,验证了当量随机化方法的精度;蒙特卡罗法结果与相对变形服从正态分布时、用当量随机化方法计算的结果接近,故主梁相对变形服从正态分布更为合理。三种计算方法中,当量随机化方法计算失效概率相较于其它方法有计算过程简便,效率高的优点。