论以粮换林换草与河西地区的可持续发展--以武威地区为例

分析了武威地区可持续发展的主要生态环境问题,讨论了生态恢复与重建面临的困境,论证了以粮换林换草对促进区域可持续发展的必要性和有效性,指出了以粮换林换草中应进一步研究的问题,提出生态重建要坚持多措施并举。     

An effective going concern prediction model for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development

The purpose of this study is to construct a two-stage effective and innovative going concern prediction model to predict going concern doubt for the sustainability of enterprises and capital market development. Samples of this study are the companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange or the Taipei Exchange, totalling 196 companies and including 49 companies with going concern doubt and 147 normal companies (with no going concern doubt). The data are taken from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and the Market Observation Post System during the period from 2001 to 2016 (totalling 16 years). This study adopts a two-stage way to construct the going concern prediction models. In Stage I, the traditional statistical method of stepwise regression (SR) and the data mining technique artificial neural network (ANN) are applied to select the important variables. In Stage II, two decision tree algorithms (data mining techniques): classification and regression tree (CART) and C5.0 are used to establish the prediction models. The results show that the SR + CART model has the highest going concern prediction accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 87.42%.     

天然核桃壳对废水中Cd~(2+)和Pb~(2+)的吸附热力学研究

采用批处理技术研究了天然核桃壳吸附废水中Cd2+和Pb2+的主要影响因素,如p H值、核桃壳用量和离子初始浓度等因素,并探讨了吸附等温线及吸附热力学。研究表明,天然核桃壳对Cd2+和Pb2+的最大吸附量分别为12.5mg/g和38.02mg/g。天然核桃壳吸附Cd2+的过程对Freundlich方程和Langmuir方程的拟合效果都较好;吸附Pb2+的过程则对Freundlich方程的拟合效果要好于Langmuir方程。热力学分析表明,天然核桃壳对Cd2+和Pb2+的吸附属自发吸热过程,且较易发生。     

蚁群生成树算法研究

应用蚁群生成树算法搜索了有34个节点的连接图的生成树,并采用正交设计法和均匀设计法进行了参数优化配置方法研究。结果表明:对于参数较多的蚁群算法,应用正交设计法和均匀设计法进行参数优化配置是一种可行且有效的途径,可有效提高蚁群算法的收敛速度,在求解精度上也有一定优势;充分发挥人类智能与仿生物智能的各自优势是克服单纯靠智能优化方法随机搜索缺点的关键;当蚂蚁数目为100、信息素相对重要性因素为0.3、信息素衰减系数为3.6、信息素挥发系数为0.4、信息素增加强度系数为14时,蚁群生成树算法效果最佳。     

干旱区滴灌核桃树根系空间分布特性研究

为了研究核桃树根系空间分布特性,本文使用分层分段挖掘法对干旱区滴灌方式下核桃树根系总根长、根重、有效吸收根根长的空间分布规律进行了研究。研究表明：核桃树根系总根长水平方向主要分布在0～120cm处,占其总分布的90．84％;垂直方向主要分布在0～90cm处,占其总分布的78．75％。根重水平方向主要分布在0～30cm处,占其总分布的52．49％;垂直方向主要分布在15～75em处,占其总分布的61．12％。有效吸水根根长在水平距离60cm和垂直深度60cm处为分布密集区。在距离树干水平距离60cm和垂直深度60cm附近的根区,应作为核桃树水肥管理的重点区域。     

基于案例推理的黄河流域水资源优化调配

利用水文要素的周期性、重现性、相似性等特征,将嵌套案例推理技术引入到黄河流域水资源调配方案决策中,建立K-D树定性搜索与相似度精确定位相结合的基于案例推理的黄河流域水资源调配决策模型。对黄河流域水资源调配中的水文要素进行定性识别,以关键水文要素的相似度作为检索指标,通过K-D树结构实现快速搜索定位与水文要素的相似性匹配,可搜索出与决策问题高度相似的方案,实现水资源的优化调配。     

Machine learning in individual claims reserving

Machine learning techniques make it feasible to calculate claims reserves on individual claims data. This paper illustrates how these techniques can be used by providing an explicit example in individual claims reserving.     

The evolution of world trade from 1995 to 2014: A network approach

This paper employs network analysis to study world trade from 1995 to 2014. We focus on the main connective features of the world trade network (WTN) and their dynamics. Results suggest that countries’ efforts to attain the benefits of trade have resulted in an intertwined network that is increasingly dense, reciprocal, and clustered. However, these features do not correspond to a linear aggregation of the characteristics of its constituents (trade sectors). Trade linkages are distributed homogeneously among countries, but their intensity (i.e. their value) is highly concentrated in a small set of countries. The main connective features of the WTN were not affected by the 2007–2008 international financial crisis. However, we find that the crisis marks a turning point in the evolution of the WTN from a two-group (led by the US and Germany) to a three-group (led by the US, Germany, and China) hierarchical structure.     

Uncovering the global network of economic policy uncertainty

This study uncovers the static and dynamic network of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) across 17 developed and emerging economies. We build a centrality network using the minimal spanning tree (MST) as well as a dependency network using partial correlations. Results from the MST show that EPU exhibits some degree of geographical connections with EPUs in seven countries in the sample directly linked to the US EPU. Evidence from dynamic time-varying MST reveals that the nature and dominance of the EPU network have changed significantly over time. Further, the US and German EPUs dominate a close-knit global policy uncertainty network with the highest net (To and From) transmitter of information flow in the dependency network. Greece, Russia, and Brazil are the top three net receivers of information in the global network of EPU. The policy implication of these results relates to the renewed and ongoing international debate on policy coordination.     

新疆林木种苗产业的市场结构、企业行为与市场绩效

市场结构和行为对市场绩效的影响机制是解释产业发展的重要前因。通过实地调研,分析新疆林木种苗产业组织市场结构-市场行为-市场绩效内在规律。结果表明,新疆林木种苗产业市场结构属于垄断竞争型市场结构;相当数量企业生产能力效率较低;市场种苗产业的生产能力利用率不高,市场绩效低下。基于结论,提出从优化市场结构,调整市场行为两个方面进行产业政策调整,进而提高市场绩效。