论科研选题应注意的几个问题

科研选题要善于把握选题的原别和导向，注意课题的研究动态，把握课题的研究范围，发挥出科研人员的优势，设计出切实可行的研究路线。     

Vegetation Change in Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands: Deviation from the Historical Cycle

Water-level change is integral to the structure and function of Great Lakes coastal wetlands, and many studies document predictable relationships between vegetation and water level. However, anthropogenic stressors, such as invasive species, land-use change, and water-level stabilization, interact to shift the historical cycle (of native vegetation migration up- and down-slope) toward dominance by invasive Typha species. Knowing from earlier studies that water-level stabilization alters the historical vegetation cycle, we asked if similar shifts can occur where water levels are not stabilized. Using historical aerial photographs of three coastal wetlands (in Lake Michigan's Green Bay, Wisconsin), we determined that habitat dominated by Typha species has expanded to eliminate wet meadow habitat. Between 1974 and 1992, linear regressions showed strong, significant relationships of both meadow area (R² ≥ 0.894; p < 0.02) and marsh area (R² ≥ 0.784; p < 0.05) to water level in all three wetlands. In 2000, meadow area was below that predicted by the historical pattern due to the landward advance of marsh habitat during a year of decreasing water levels. In the same period, land use in the wetland watersheds converted from agriculture to urban. Urbanization and the replacement of native Typha latifolia by the invasive hybrid Typha xglauca may have overwhelmed the beneficial impact of water-level fluctuation. The documentation of vegetation shifts, as herein, is an essential step in the process of preserving and restoring ecological integrity.     

Use of Statistics in the Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank: The Case of a Country in Transition

In the presented text the authors judge the importance of statistics in the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) over the course of the economic transformation process, with particular consideration of changing statistical needs and the possibilities and limits of statistical data exploitation in the monetary analyses. The importance of statistics lies on the level of collection and processing of statistical information and on the level of use of statistical methods to analyse data. Since the start of the 1990s the requirements for statistics were significantly influenced by monetary policy. In the period 1990–1997, monetary targeting was the primary influential factor. Since 1998, the monetary policy is influenced by inflation targeting. Statistical priorities switched from monetary data to economy and financial market data. Much progress has been made in the use of statistical methods for analysing data. Statistics available at present cover the CNB's standard monetary-policy requirements and are on par with those in developed countries. Its further development will reflect the standard changes taking place in the more advanced countries.     

Screening model for assessing ‘cost’ of minimum flow requirements in the Svartå River,Sweden

The minimum flow requirements in the Svartå River in Sweden are directed at maintaining fishlife and providing suitable dilution for waste flows. The implications of varying the minimum flow requirements in the river are examined using a mixed integer optimisation model. The model is formulated as a modified method-of-weights technique with the economic issues of hydro-electricity generation, irrigation and urban water supply placed in the objective function and the minimum flows specified within the constraint set. The integer component of the model is required to model the operating policy at the major flow regulation facility in the system and the restricted validity of the irrigation permits. Application of the model shows that in dry years where competition between minimum flow levels and the other economic uses, is most intense, the levels achieved by the various economic objectives are only slightly reduced even with significant increases in the minimum flow requirements. Variations in minimum flow requirements of up to 45% only produce changes of 10% or less in the economic objectives. The lack of sensitivity of the objective levels is due primarily to the level of control exerted indirectly on the whole system in dry years by the release regulation policy and the restricted validity of the irrigation permits. In normal to wet years these policies are not as restrictive and more choice is available. In such years, however, there is generally sufficient water to satisfy all requirements and allocation is not a critical issue. The model itself is formulated generally so that a range of scenarios beyond those examined specifically in the paper can be considered.     

混凝土坝冷却自适应控制的在线辨识

本文应用自动控制理论“自适应在线辨识”解决了混凝土大坝混凝土一、二期冷却的自动控制问题。通过预埋的电阻温度计实时量测温度,实时调节循环冷却水系统的流量和水温或是毋须进行通水,以便达到良好的冷却质量和经济节约的目的。     

Water table fluctuation with a random initial condition

The nonlinear Boussinesq equation is used to understand water table fluctuations in various ditch drainage problems. An approximate solution of this equation with a random initial condition and deterministic boundary conditions, recharge rate and aquifer parameters has been developed to predict a transient water table in a ditch-drainage system. The effects of uncertainty in the initial condition on the water table are illustrated with the help of a synthetic example. These results would find applications in ditch-drainage design.Notation A / tanh t - a lower value of the random variable representing the initial water table height at the mid point - a+b Upper value of the random variable representing the initial water table height at the midpoint - B tanh t - C 4/ - h variable water table height - h mean of the variable water table height - h _m variable water table height at the mid point - h _m mean of the variable water table height at the mid point - K hydraulic conductivity - L half spacing between the ditches - m ₀ initial water table height at the mid point - N Uniform rate of recharge - S specific yield - t time of observation - x distance measured from the ditch boundary - (4/SL)(NK)^1/2 - (L/4)(N/K)^1/2 - dummy integral variable     

基于MRIO与SNA的中国水资源空间转移网络分析

基于2002年、2007年和2012年的多区域投入产出表的相关数据,利用多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型和社会网络分析法(SNA)分析了中国水资源流动网络的空间关联性和结构特征。结果表明:网络中的链接数量没有随水足迹贸易值的增加而增加,链接路径上的流量不断增加,网络的韧性不够,空间关联渠道有待拓展,存在一定的等级差异,稳定性需要加强;网络中一些省份链接的增加,会削弱其他省份的链接数目,这种可塑性特征有利于在全国范围内合理配置水资源;将网络划分为4个板块,板块间的溢出关系主要是以板块内部为主,且少数板块之间没有任何的溢出关系。     

注册会计师的角色认识与监管中的难题思考

从审计市场的供需两方来看,作为以提供审计服务换取收入的注册会计师,不可避免地有着“经济人”的共有特征——追求自身利益最大化,但同时,由于需求方信息使用者的广泛性,注册会计师实际上又肩负着维持市场秩序的社会责任,这正是注册会计师比其他提供劳务的行业受到更多限制的原因所在。从中关独立审计的发展轨迹可见,为了使注册会计师担当好其应有的社会角色,单靠市场或政府都是不可行的,作为公众利益的代言人——政府,如何合理把握市场与政府的界限,做好市场主体权利的配置是各国政府共同面临的难题。     

Reduced Form Auctions Revisited

This note uses the Theorem of the Alternative to prove new results on the implementability of general, asymmetric auctions, and to provide simpler proofs of known results for symmetric auctions. The tradeoff is that type spaces are taken to be finite.     

北京先行经济指数研究

"北京先行经济指数"是我国第一个区域性先行经济指数,在试运行中取得了很好的效果。该指数以我国现行统计制度为基础,紧密结合北京实际,通过构造基准循环、"提取"先行指标、编制指数、返回检验等步骤,对北京先行经济指数的科学性和有效性进行了分析。先行指数超前GDP增速变化4～8个月这一重要研究结论在返回检验中得到了很好的证实。