The learning cost of interest rate reversals

Many central banks in many time periods have sought to avoid interest rate reversals, but at present there is no good explanation of this phenomenon. Our analysis identifies a new learning cost associated with reversing the interest rate. In a standard monetary model with forward-looking expectations, data uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, a policy that frequently reverses the interest rate makes learning the key parameters of the model more difficult. Optimal monetary policy internalises this learning cost and therefore has a lower number of interest rate reversals.     

国有银行贷审委的分离决策均衡激励约束机制探讨

目前的银行贷审委集体决策的体制往往导致贷款责任难以划分,集体负责实际变成无人负责。本文提出一个贷审委的分离决策均衡激励约束机制,使每个贷审委委员每次信贷决策均得到奖惩,从而解决贷审委集体决策无人负责的激励困境问题,决策基金帐户的设置则使贷审委委员无论调到何处,均需为他的每一次决策负责。     

世界银行卡产业发展研究

随着全球经济的复苏和银行卡受理环境的改善,近年来世界银行卡产业保持着迅捷的增长势头,银行卡作为支付手段对现金和支票的替代作用也日益明显。本文从总量指标和人均指标两方面对当前世界主要国家和地区银行卡产业的交易状况进行了实证研究,分析了全球银行卡市场在区域和品牌上的分布结构,并对该产业近年来的发展趋势进行了总结与探讨。     

外汇储备、外汇交易量与CHIBOR利率的VAR模型(2000～2004)——兼论“三元悖论”下冲销干预与货币政策的独立性

本文以“三元悖论”为切入点,从总量与结构两方面考察当前结售汇制度对商业银行外汇头寸及外汇交易量的影响,进而考察在货币政策时滞的影响下央行冲销干预的效果以及货币政策的独立性。结论认为:我国外汇储备成因中政策性制度安排(结售汇)作用突出,现行结售汇业务导致外汇交易量受到外汇储备的冲击,冲销干预的有效性十分有限且不确定性很强。在CHIBOR利率的波动中,外汇储备和外汇交易量的作用不可忽视,同时外汇交易量的波动中,外汇储备与CHIBOR利率的冲击作用贡献明显,货币政策独立性受到侵蚀。     

The Impact of Basel II on Lending to Small- and Medium-Sized Firms: A Regulatory Policy Assessment Based on Spanish Credit Register Data

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact on bank credit exposures to small- and medium-sized Spanish firms of the current proposal for reform of the 1988 Capital Accord using information from the Spanish Credit Register. Capital requirements for exposures to those firms, according to the various revisions of the proposed capital reform (from the January 2001 consultative document to the April 2003 one), are calculated to analyze whether the existing pattern of bank financing of small- and medium-sized firms might be altered. Finally, the incentives for individual banks to adopt the advanced internal ratings-based approach proposed by Basel II are evaluated.     

The Political Economy of Deposit Insurance

This paper uses a political economy framework to analyze cross-country differences in deposit insurance coverage. It finds supporting evidence of the significance of private interest theories in explaining coverage of deposit insurance. Deposit insurance coverage is significantly higher in countries where poorly capitalized banks dominate the market and in countries where depositors are poorly educated. The analysis does not find that coverage is significantly related to political-institutional variables, such as the degree of democracy or restraints on the executive, or to proxies for the general level of institutional development, such as per capita income or property rights. These results provide evidence in support of the private interest view, according to which risky banks lobby for extensive coverage.     

Differences in the Cost of Trade Execution Services on Floor-Based and Electronic Futures Markets

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of electronic trading on brokerage commissions by investigating a sample period that covers the period of transition from floor to electronic trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange. After controlling for liquidity, volatility and broker identity, the introduction of electronic trading remains to be associated with lower brokerage commissions relative to floor markets. The study also provides new evidence on brokerage commissions in futures markets finding that commission fees charged on futures trades average 0.002% of transaction value. This is up to 120 times smaller than the magnitude of brokerage fees charged in stock markets, and considerably lower than the magnitude of brokerage fees assumed for futures markets in previous research. Consistent with existing studies based on stock markets, commissions charged per contract decrease with order size reflecting economies of scale in the provision of brokerage services in futures markets. Commission rates are positively related to bid-ask spreads and price volatility, which proxy for the probability of execution error costs and execution difficulty, respectively. Finally, the identity of the broker is found to be a significant determinant of commissions reflecting different pricing schedules across brokers.     

Bank Lending to Native American Applicants: An Investigation of Mortgage Flows and Government Guarantee Programs on Native American Lands

We investigate the efficacy of government guarantee programs for mortgage loans made on tribal lands by comparing lending outcomes for White applicants and Native Americans (NAs) living on- and off reservation lands. Simultaneous equations models with the loan-to-income ratio endogenous indicate both on- and off-reservation NA applicants experience higher conditional denial rates compared with otherwise similar White applicants. NAs living on-reservation are equally as likely to be approved for mortgage loans as off-reservation NAs. On-reservation applicants self-select lower loan-to-income ratios, and are held to a higher standard for this credit variable, likely because lower housing values and other economic variables challenge on-reservation applicants. Our findings suggest lack of financial resources, lack of applicant education about and experience with the mortgage process, low creditworthiness, and lender reluctance to confront burdensome bureaucracy limit on-reservation guarantee program success.     

Learning and the central bank

It is well known that sunspot equilibria may arise under an interest rate operating procedure in which the central bank varies the nominal rate with movements in future inflation (a forward-looking Taylor rule). This paper demonstrates that these sunspot equilibria may be learnable in the sense of E-stability.     

The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: evidence from three small open economies

This paper studies the impact effect of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand during the 1990s. Shocks are identified by the reaction of three month market interest rates to policy announcements that were not themselves endogenous to economic news on the same day. The main result is that a 100 basis point contractionary shock will appreciate the exchange rate by 2-3 percent on impact. The association of interest rate hikes with depreciations that is sometimes observed during periods of exchange market pressure is mainly attributable to reverse causality.