Inflation,interest and exchange rates in the transition1

Central and Eastern European economies have made extraordinary progress in their trade and exchange regimes. Surprisingly, instant convertibility was established for a great variety of exchange rate regimes. In spite of diversity, all these countries have followed a common pattern: severe initial undervaluation - the cost of speed and unrestricted trade - followed by rapid real revaluation and incipient protectionism. Since 1994 in many cases an embarrass de richesse has appeared: high capital inflows which are either inflationary or costly to sterilize. A major cause of these flows - or at any rate of the high cost of sterilization - is the presence of significant interest rate differentials higher than required to cover the risk of devaluation. These are the necessary consequence of a policy of positive real interest rates and of real revaluation from excessively undervalued exchange rates. Lower interest rates are recommended, both to stem financial capital inflows and to reduce the cost of their sterilization.     

Sources of Bank Interest Rate Risk

We investigate bank stocks'sensitivity to changes in interest rates and the factors affecting this sensitivity. We focus on whether the exposure of commercial banks to interest rate risk is conditioned on certain balance sheet and income statement ratios. We find a significantly negative relation between bank stock returns and changes in interest rates over the period 1991–1996. We also find that bank characteristics measured from basic financial statement information explain bank stocks'sensitivity to interest rate changes. These results suggest that bank managers, analysts, and regulators can use this information to assess the relative risk exposure of banks.     

中国核电产业国产化发展分析

自第一座军用堆的建成到2019年7月三代核电机组再次获批建设,我国核电经历了长期的发展,进入了核电重启时期。主要简述了不同发展阶段的核电技术路线,核电设备国产化率,以及相关的发展规划。我国核电产业的发展,是核电产业和制造业的奋斗史。核电设备的国产化率在有限的核电项目中不断提高。面对核电国产化过程中遇到的技术难点,我国核电从设计院到制造商共同承担风险,突破困境,实现了三代技术的国产化。在更先进的核电技术需求背景下,核电产业需要建立可持续发展的先进产业设备制造供应管体系。     

双碳战略下四川省碳排放规模影响因素研究

在碳达峰和碳中和的战略目标下,为了对四川省三类产业碳排放规模进行分析,选取四川省三类产业2005—2019年的数据,通过建立面板数据模型分析四川省三类产业的就业结构与GDP增速对碳排放规模的影响。结果表明,四川省三类产业的就业结构、GDP增速对碳排放规模的影响都十分显著,三类产业的自发碳排放规模也存在一定差异。最后根据结论提出促进绿色就业和鼓励新型能源发展来减少碳排放规模的建议。     

产业集聚指数、产业吸引力指数与产业转移和承接

一个地区的资源禀赋影响该地区承接产业转移的能力。对中国中部地区的湖南、湖北、江西、山西、安徽、河南（这六个省简称为“中部六省”）的资源禀赋进行分析,测算作为产业接收地的中部六省承接产业转移的能力,要测算的能力包括在投资环境、自然资源、交通便捷、技术创新、劳动力成本等五个要素上表现出的单项能力及其综合能力。从产业集聚指数视角,分析上海、江苏、浙江、福建、广东（这五个省市简称为“沪苏浙闽粤五省市）当前产业发展格局,得出这五个省市那些具有产业转移趋势的产业分布范围。通过建构产业吸引力指数,分别计算中部六省和沪苏浙闽粤五省市之间的产业吸引力。从工业细分行业方面,横向对比分析中部六省在对沪苏浙闽粤五省市产业转移的承接当中,确定产业接收范围,以及接收的产业将如何分布。着重以湖南省为典型案例,分析该省在承接产业转移当中存在的主要问题,测算该省在承接来自于沪苏浙闽粤五省市的产业转移当中,能够承接的产业领域和产业分布范围,并从招商环境、产业集群、企业自主创新、产业承接政策等方面,对该省承接产业转移提出对策与建议。     

新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算模型及其实证分析

本文依据2009年国务院发布的《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》,运用保险精算的方法,构建出新农保替代率精算模型,并依据该模型对新农保替代率进行实证分析。通过分析提出以下建议:以农民人均纯收入作为缴费基数,实行比例费率制;鼓励农民尽早开始参保并保持长期缴费;鼓励参保农民选择较高的档次标准缴费;新农保个人账户基金应当在适当情况下进行市场化投资运营;继续强化土地保障和家庭保障的作用。     

Transfer of Marketing Knowledge Within Business‐Nonprofit Collaborations

Companies often develop collaborative joint ventures with nonprofits, and sometimes help their nonprofit partners with the marketing activities associated with these projects. Often, the assistance furnished is embodied in a transfer of knowledge from a firm to a nonprofit and involves knowledge about marketing techniques, strategies and methods. This article presents the results of a survey concerning the extents, natures and effectiveness of marketing knowledge transfers taking place between 291 UK enterprises and their nonprofit partner organisations. The survey covered the knowledge transfer methods that companies employed, the scope of the knowledge communicated, the factors that encouraged or impeded marketing knowledge transfer, and the considerations that determined which partner completed most of the marketing tasks associated with a project. It emerged that knowledge transfers occurred mainly through face‐to‐face communications, though with little formal teamworking. Both the extent and the effectiveness of transfers depended on the degree of marketing knowledge within the nonprofit partner, on levels of knowledge specificity and project complexity, and on the financial importance of the collaboration. The extent of knowledge transfer was additionally influenced by cultural and organisational distance. Similar considerations affected commercial partners' decisions to do most of the marketing work required by a collaboration. Such decisions were especially likely if anti‐marketing bias existed within the nonprofit organisation and if the nonprofit's staff knew little about marketing.     

试论中国现行汇率制度与利率市场化之间的关系

本文首先回顾了关于利率与汇率关系的经典理论，在此基础上分析了不同经济体制下，利率与汇率的联动性，指出中国尽管已经开始改革汇率和利率，但实质上仍然实行的是固定汇率制、外汇管制较严格、利率还未完全市场化，正是在这种情况下，中国的利率与汇率机制传导不顺畅。本文基于此，实证检验了人民币汇率制度与利率的关系，发现改革开放前中国的利率与汇率之间相关性不明显；自1978年以来，人民币汇率与利率之间逐渐发生了相互作用。由此认为无论是在改革汇率制度方面，还是继续推行利率市场化方面，国家都必须考虑国内外金融市场的密切关系。     

抵押风险分析和抵押贷款违约损失率研究

违约损失率是BaselⅡ规定的六大风险指标之一,而抵押是BaselⅡ标准法规定的信用风险缓释工具之一,两者在巴塞尔新资本协议中有着非常关键的地位和作用.本文总结了国内外违约损失率的研究概况,在利用历史数据对我国商业银行抵押贷款的违约损失率进行实证分析后发现:(1)回收率同融资金额成反比;(2)回收率同融资折率成反比;(3)回收率呈\"U\"型分布.本文的分析有助于进一步探究我国商业银行抵押贷款违约损失率的特征,是量化风险暴露和计算监管资本的基础,并为我们下一步的折率研究做好了铺垫.