On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

Is external research assessment associated with convergence or divergence of research quality across universities and disciplines? Evidence from the PBRF process in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Performance-based research evaluations have been adopted in several countries both to measure research quality in higher education institutions and as a basis for the allocation of funding across institutions. Much attention has been given to evaluating whether such schemes have increased the quality and quantity of research. This paper examines whether the introduction of the New Zealand Performance-Based Research Fund process produced convergence or divergence in measured research quality across universities and disciplines between the 2003 and 2012 assessments. Two convergence measures are obtained. One, referred to as β-convergence, relates to the relationship between changes in average quality and the initial quality level. The second concept, referred to as σ-convergence, relates to the changes in the dispersion in average research quality over time. Average quality scores by discipline and university were obtained from individual researcher data, revealing substantial β- and σ-convergence in research quality over the period. The hypothesis of uniform rates of convergence across almost all universities and disciplines is supported. The results provide insights into the incentives created by performance-based funding schemes.     

基于 DEA 的海运物流企业绩效研究

为科学准确地评价我国海运物流企业的绩效,选取了13家上市的海运物流企业,采用因子分析方法对公布的财务数据进行简化,从海运物流企业的偿债能力、经营发展能力、盈利能力、资本结构、未来发展方面构建了海运物流企业绩效评价指标体系,运用数据包络分析方法对海运物流企业绩效情况进行了实证分析,建立了投入产出的DEA模型,以此得出海运物流企业管理绩效评价值和前沿面图,结合评价结果和企业实际运营情况,证实了这种方法对海运物流企业绩效研究有较好的应用价值。