Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State

A growing literature finds evidence that flood risk salience varies over time, spiking directly following a flood and then falling off individuals' cognitive radar in the following years. In this article, we provide new evidence of salience exploiting a hurricane cluster impacting Florida that was preceded and followed by periods of unusual calm. Utilizing residential property sales across the state from 2002 through 2012, our main estimate finds a salience impact of ?8%, on average. The salience effect persists when we base estimation only on spatial variation in prices to limit confounding from other simultaneous changes due to shifting hedonic equilibria over time. These effects range from housing prices decreases of 5.4–12.3% depending on the year of sale. Understanding flood risk salience has important implications for flood insurance and disaster policy, the benefits transfer literature, and, more broadly, our understanding of natural disaster resilience. JEL Classification: Q51, Q54, R21     

生命周期评价方法及其应用

介绍了生命周期评价的目的、意义和基本方法，并运用该方法对燃煤发电、废纸造纸、废旧塑料气化发电等几种不同工业过程的环境影响进行了分析。     

谈谈情，跳跳舞

上半身保持不动．据说这样体现了西班牙人的高贵．腰胯部的扭动则来源于热情奔放的非洲。而腿脚的动作印证着印第安人的文化。     

永乐家电能否“永乐”京城

上海家电连锁大鄂永乐家电在经过两年筹划之后于6月18日正式登陆北京．开设了在北京的第一家店。永乐家电董事长陈晓说：“如果不拿下北京与广东的市场，永乐就谈不上是全国性的连锁。“陈晓的这番话让我们看出永乐进入北京的决心，但永乐究竟是“永乐”京城还是永乐自身，是包括像国美、苏宁这样大的家电连锁企业所共同关心的问题。     

澳大利亚高等职业技术教育的管理及借鉴

澳大利亚的技术与继续教育已经形成了开放和比较完善的体系,在国际上享有一定的声誉,是其教育出口的重要内容之一。本文分析了澳大利亚高等职业技术教育管理的现状和特点,并提出了对我国的高等职业技术教育发展的一些借鉴。     

农村信用社发展的困境及纾解方案

农村信用社发展面临的障碍是:产权关系不明确,产权形式不规范;资源结构不合理;基础设施落后;结算渠道单一,汇路不畅;劳动用工制度僵化,员工素质低下.应通过深化改革,加强管理,加大政策扶植力度来解决.     

明清古村——朱家峪

从济南市区沿济王公路东行约50公里,在秀水之阳胡山之阴有一个已有600多年历史的明清古村——朱家峪。 朱家峪,现辖属章丘市官庄乡。考章丘市地名志,小村曾数易其名。明洪武初年,朱氏家族始祖朱良盛携家眷自河北枣强迁到该村。因朱是国姓,即与明太祖     

论商品的价值量与生产力的关系

<正> 一、商品的价值量与物化劳动的关系 (一)价值的本质 马克思说“作为价值,一切商品都只是定量的凝固的劳动时间。”更抽象地说,价值就是劳动。这就是价值的质。劳动,本质上具有社会性。在商品生产的条件下,这种社会性是通过价值来体现的。价值关系“只是人们自己的一定的社会关系”。换句话说,也就是人们用价值“把他们的私人劳动当作等同的人类劳动来互相发生关系”。因此,说价值的本质是劳动,也就是说价值本质上是劳动者交换劳动的社会关系。但是,在商品社会里,“劳动的那些社会规定借以实现的生产者的关系,取得了劳动产品的社会关系的形式。”由于有些人不能透过物的关系看到人的关系,对物产生了崇拜,马克思则认为这就是商品拜物教的根源。物化劳动创造价值的观点,其根源也在这里。     

深圳市新一轮国企改革的思路

本文立足于深圳国企改革和发展，分析改革进程中遇到的新问题，探索新一轮国有企业改革的新对策。