Pollution Control in Open Economies: Implications of Within-period Interactions for Dynamic Game Equilibrium

This paper examines a two-country, dynamic game model of pollution control in the presence of economic interactions between countries within a period, as well as the environmental interaction between periods (i.e., a change in the stock of global pollution). These economic interactions emerge because of changes in the terms of trade of polluting goods or the market share of domestic polluting industries. It is shown that if within-period externalities exist, a noncooperative equilibrium may result in a smaller stock of global pollution in the steady state than does international cooperation. Moreover, the properties of equilibrium paths depend on the direction and size of such externalities. In addition, trigger strategy equilibria that achieve the outcome of the collusive solution are examined.     

Cyclical growth in a Goodwin–Kalecki–Marx model

This paper presents a disequilibrium macrodynamic model that incorporates certain elements from Goodwin (the dynamics of the rate of employment and income distribution), Kalecki (an investment function independent of savings, and mark-up pricing in oligopolistic goods markets), and Marx (the reserve-army and reserve-army-creation effects). The model has a system of differential equations for the rate of utilization, profit share, and rate of employment. We show that there exist limit cycles that depend on the sizes of the reserve-army effect and reserve-army-creation effect. This implies that there exists a situation in which the economy experiences endogenous and perpetual growth cycles. Moreover, we show that if the stable long-run equilibrium corresponds to the profit-led growth regime, an increase in the bargaining power of workers increases the rate of unemployment; conversely, if the equilibrium corresponds to the wage-led growth-regime, an increase in the bargaining power of workers decreases the rate of unemployment.     

Product Patent Reform and its Impact on Korea's Pharmaceutical Industry

Our analysis focuses on the effect of U.S. government pressure on Korea to adopt product patents for chemical and pharmaceutical products. American pressure began in November 1985 and ended with the Korean Legislature's passage of a new patent law in December 1986. We conduct an event study of the effect of the new patent law on the value of Korean pharmaceutical firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange. Regression analysis shows that the new law induced excess returns of-74 percent over the 14-month analysis period. The results suggest that adoption of stronger patent laws reduced Korea's wealth. [G14, O34]     

Shift of the short-term temperature mortality relationship by a climate factor - some evidence necessary to take account of in estimating the health effect of global warming

Several studies have reported a 'V'-shaped relationship between short-term temperature and mortality rates, characterized by mortality rates that are higher when the temperature is extremely low or high than when the temperature is moderate. To quantify the effect of adaptation to a certain climate on this V-shaped short-term temperature-mortality relationship, we studied the prefecture-specific relationship between daily maximum temperature and mortality rates for 65+-years-old Japanese from 1972 to 1990. For both genders, the optimum daily maximum temperature (OT) category at which the mortality rate was minimum ranged from 23C-28 C to 33+C, and the OT level became lower when the climate became colder. The mean OT level was lower for women than for men by 1.7C. The mortality rate at the OT was almost constant across prefectures, regardless of the climate. From the results, we considered that the adaptation effect on the short-term temperature-mortality relationship is mainly described by the 'horizontal shift model': the V-shape moves horizontally according to the climate. This 'shift' should be taken into account in estimating the health effect of global warming, and the model would be useful for the estimation.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RETENTION RATIO IN A KALECKIAN MODEL WITH DEBT ACCUMULATION

By using a Kaleckian model with debt accumulation, Hein (2007; Metroeconomica, 56 (2), pp. 310–39) found that the long‐run equilibrium value of the debt–capital ratio is positive and stable only if interest rates are extremely high and if the short‐run equilibrium exhibits the ‘debt‐led’ growth regime. However, this conclusion crucially depends on the assumption that the retention ratio of firms is equal to unity. By relaxing this assumption, we show that there exists a positive and stable long‐run equilibrium even under the ‘debt‐burdened’ regime without any constraint on the nominal interest rate.     

Free Trade Agreement and Vertical Trade with a Manufacturing Base

We examine the effects of free trade agreement (FTA) on tariffs and welfare in a three‐country model with vertical trade, where an FTA is formed between a country exporting a final good whose production involves using an intermediate good, and a country exporting the intermediate good in exchange for the final good. We demonstrate that the FTA reduces its member country's external tariff, whereas it raises the non‐member country's tariff. The non‐member country unambiguously becomes better off. In contrast, the FTA may or may not make its member countries better off. This implies that the formation of an FTA may not always be Pareto‐improving.     

International Competition and Distributive Class Conflict in an Open Economy Kaleckian Model

This paper constructs an open economy Kaleckian model in which international competition affects the bargaining process between firms and workers, and investigates the effects of such bargaining on the macroeconomy. We show that the effects of a change in the bargaining power on aggregate demand depends not only on the demand regimes but also on which agents bears more of the burden arising from the international price competition. Moreover, if the real exchange rate has a small impact on the trade balance, the economy is stable, whereas if it has a larger impact on the trade balance, the economy is unstable.     

Roles of Public Capital in Pakistan's Economy: Productivity, Investment and Growth Analysis

This study analyzes the role of public capital in Pakistan's economy, tracing the relationship between productivity of public capital and economic growth. We estimate a production function, with public capital as an inputs. The results indicate that the productivity (output elasticity) of aggregate as well as different components of public capital are sufficiently high. We also analyze substitutability and complementarity between public and private capital by estimating investment functions, revealing that public capital has worked as a substitute for private investment. The net effect of public capital on the national economy is analyzed by estimating reduced forms, with the result that public capital has a positive net effect on national product. The growth analysis shows that the contribution of public capital is declining over time.     

The Asymptotic Expansion Approach to the Valuation of Interest Rate Contingent Claims

We propose a new methodology for the valuation problem of financial contingent claims when the underlying asset prices follow a general class of continuous Itô processes. Our method can be applied to a wide range of valuation problems including complicated contingent claims associated with the term structure of interest rates. We illustrate our method by giving two examples: the valuation problems of swaptions and average (Asian) options for interest rates. Our method gives some explicit formulas for solutions, which are sufficiently numerically accurate for practical purposes in most cases. The continuous stochastic processes for spot interest rates and forward interest rates are not necessarily Markovian nor diffusion processes in the usual sense; nevertheless our approach can be rigorously justified by the Malliavin–Watanabe Calculus in stochastic analysis.