PERIODIC SEQUENCES OF ARBITRAGE: A TALE OF FOUR CURRENCIES

This paper investigates arbitrage chains involving four currencies and four foreign exchange trader‐arbitrageurs. In contrast with the three‐currency case, we find that arbitrage operations when four currencies are present may appear periodic in nature, and not involve smooth convergence to a ‘balanced’ ensemble of exchange rates in which the law of one price holds. The goal of this article is to understand some interesting features of sequences of arbitrage operations, features which might well be relevant in other contexts in finance and economics.     

Reconciling sustainability, systems theory and discounting

Most definitions of sustainability imply that a system is to be maintained at a certain level, held within certain limits, into the indefinite future. Sustainability denies run-away growth, but it also avoids any decline or destruction. This sustainability path is hard to reconcile with the renewal cycle that can be observed in many natural systems developing according to their intrinsic mechanisms and in social systems responding to internal and external pressures. Systems are parts of hierarchies where systems of higher levels are made up of subsystems from lower levels. Renewal in components is an important factor of adaptation and evolution. If a system is sustained for too long, it borrows from the sustainability of a supersystem and rests upon lack of sustainability in subsystems. Therefore by sustaining certain systems beyond their renewal cycle, we decrease the sustainability of larger, higher-level systems. For example, Schumpeter's theory of creative destruction posits that in a capitalist economy, the collapse and renewal of firms and industries is necessary to sustain the vitality of the larger economic system. However, if the capitalist economic system relies on endless growth, then sustaining it for too long will inevitably borrow from the sustainability of the global ecosystem. This could prove catastrophic for humans and other species. To reconcile sustainability with hierarchy theory, we must decide which hierarchical level in a system we want to sustain indefinitely, and accept that lower level subsystems must have shorter life spans. In economic analysis, inter-temporal discount rates essentially tell us how long we should care about sustaining any given system. Economists distinguish between discount rates for individuals based on personal time preference, lower discount rates for firms based on the opportunity cost of capital, and even lower discount rates for society. For issues affecting even higher-level systems, such as global climate change, many economists question the suitability of discounting future values at all. We argue that to reconcile sustainability with inter-temporal discounting, discount rates should be determined by the hierarchical level of the system being analyzed.     

An empirical behavioral model of household’s deposit dollarization

We use the behavioral concept to endogenously model the evolution of the link between households’ deposit dollarization and exchange rate developments in Russia. We estimate the model empirically and show that the reaction of households to exchange rate appreciation weakens when exchange rate developments become more volatile. The proposed model outperforms the contemporary nonlinear time series models in forecasting the changes in dollarization during the Bank of Russia’s transition to a flexible exchange rate regime.

     

Money-based underlying inflation measure for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach

We estimate a dynamic factor model for the cross section of monetary and price indicators. We extract the common part of the dataset’s fluctuations and decompose it into structural shocks. We argue that one of the shocks identified has empirical properties (in terms of impulse response functions) that are fully in line with the theoretically expected relationship between money growth and inflation, confirming that the process identified has the capacity for economic interpretation. Based on this finding, we decompose recent inflationary developments in Russia into those that are associated with changes in monetary stance and other shorter-lived shocks.     

Are consumers' financial needs and values common across cultures? Evidence from six countries

Are consumers' financial needs, and financial values, the same or different across cultures? Two studies, with student (Study 1; n = 988) and non‐student (Study 2; n = 959) participants, explore the extent of equivalence, across six countries (Brazil, Russia, China, Taiwan, Tunisia and US), in financial need belief, and financial value, measurement models. The financial need beliefs, derived from self‐determination theory (SDT) principles, include financial self‐efficacy, financial autonomy, financial community trust and support; the financial values include materialism and financial altruism. Both the financial need and financial value constructs evidence configural invariance (similar factor structure), and factor invariance among student but not non‐student samples. The financial need constructs evidence full, and the financial value constructs evidence partial, metric (factor loading) invariance. Factor covariance invariance obtains for the financial need beliefs constructs but not the financial value constructs. Finally, neither financial need nor financial value constructs evidence scalar (intercept) invariance. These results provide partial support for extending SDT's hypothesis of universal human needs to the financial domain. In contrast, the financial value constructs of altruism and materialism are largely instable across cultures, suggesting that consumer views of giving, and the role of wealth in social status, differ between countries.     

Computing the finite-time expected discounted penalty function for a family of Lévy risk processes

Ever since the first introduction of the expected discounted penalty function (EDPF), it has been widely acknowledged that it contains information that is relevant from a risk management perspective. Expressions for the EDPF are now available for a wide range of models, in particular for a general class of Lévy risk processes. Yet, in order to capitalize on this potential for applications, these expressions must be computationally tractable enough as to allow for the evaluation of associated risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) or Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). Most of the models studied so far offer few interesting examples for which computation of the associated EDPF can be carried out to the last instances where evaluation of risk measures is possible. Another drawback of existing examples is that the expressions are available for an infinite-time horizon EDPF only. Yet, realistic applications would require the computation of an EDPF over a finite-time horizon. In this paper we address these two issues by studying examples of risk processes for which numerical evaluation of the EDPF can be readily implemented. These examples are based on the recently introduced meromorphic processes, including the beta and theta families of Lévy processes, whose construction is tailor-made for computational ease. We provide expressions for the EDPF associated with these processes and we discuss in detail how a finite-time horizon EDPF can be computed for these families. We also provide numerical examples for different choices of parameters in order to illustrate how ruin-based risk measures can be computed for these families of Lévy risk processes.     

Analysis of the SRISK measure and its application to the Canadian banking and insurance industries

In this paper, we analyse, modify, and apply one of the most widely used measures of systemic risk, SRISK, developed by Brownlees and Engle (in Rev Financ Stud 30:48–79, 2016). The measure is defined as the expected capital shortfall of a firm conditional on a prolonged market decline. We argue that segregated funds, also known as separate accounts in the US, should be excluded from actuarial liabilities when SRISK is calculated for insurance companies. We also demonstrate the importance of careful analysis of accounting standards when specifying the prudential capital ratio used in SRISK methodology. Based on the proposed adjustments to SRISK, we assess the systemic risk of the Canadian banking and insurance industries. It is shown that in its current implementation, the SRISK methodology substantially overestimates the systemic risk of Canadian insurance companies.     

Subjective probability assessments of the incidence of unethical behavior: the importance of scenario–respondent fit

Largely due to the difficulty of observing behavior, empirical business ethics research relies heavily on the scenario methodology. While not disputing the usefulness of the technique, this paper highlights the importance of a careful assessment of the fit between the context of the situation described in the scenario and the knowledge and experience of the respondents. Based on a study of online auctions, we provide evidence that even respondents who have direct knowledge of the situation portrayed in the scenario may develop significantly different assessments of the level of unethical behavior. Further, those assessments may be conditioned in different ways by the same moderating variables. We conclude that care should be exercised when recruiting respondents to choose only those who can be expected to understand the scenario in its true context and that separate analyses should be conducted for groups of respondents who have different perspectives within that context.     

Online Auction Fraud: Ethical Perspective

Internet fraud is an issue that increasingly concerns regulators, consumers, firms, and business ethics researchers. In this article, we examine one common form of internet fraud, the practice of shill bidding (when a seller in an auction enters a bid on his or her own item). The significant incidence of shill bidding on eBay (in spite of the fact that it is illegal just as it is in live auctions) exemplifies the current ineffectiveness of regulatory means as well as the lack of effective societal mechanisms to prevent online fraud. Further, the proliferation of shill bidding along with other types of internet fraud may have broader implications. If unethical behavior such as shill bidding becomes too widespread on the internet, regulators and other societal forces may deem it necessary to institute controls that will impact the entire online marketplace as well as the future development and regulation of business activities on the internet. Our results indicate that shill bidding is perpetrated on eBay significantly more often than 0.1% rate of fraud estimated by the firm. This suggests that regulators, users, and others stakeholders may become concerned enough to act. The impact of those responses on the internet of the future may affect a broad array of users beyond the unethical sellers on eBay. Alex Nikitkov is an Assistant Professor of Accounting at Brock University in St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada Darlene Bay is an Assistant Professor of Accounting at Brock University in St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada     

Leverage and Mortgage Foreclosures

In this paper, we deduce the default and prepayment characteristics of mortgages by examining the actual behaviors of a large set of conforming fixed rate mortgages tracked over time. Employing reduced form pricing techniques, we are then able to fully value such mortgages, and so determine the cost as well as the probability of default for any particular mortgage. The analysis reveals the levels of foreclosures that can be expected when loans are leveraged at the high loan–to–value ratios characteristic of recent years.