Partial Regulation in Vertically Differentiated Industries

We provide theoretical foundations for quality‐adjusted price‐cap regulation in industries where a regulated incumbent and an unregulated entrant offer vertically differentiated products competing in price and quality. We show that, whether or not the incumbent anticipates the reaction of the entrant, the optimal weights in the cap depend upon the market served by the entrant, despite the latter not being directly concerned by regulation. We further show that the cap is robust to small errors in the weights. Our findings point to the conclusion that, in partially regulated industries, regulators should use information about the whole sectors rather than on the sole regulated incumbents.     

Depression dynamics: a new estimate of the Anglo‐American manufacturing productivity gap in the interwar period1

During the interwar period the manufacturing productivity gap between the US and the UK became much larger than existing estimates suggest. In this article a new comparison of US/UK productivity levels for 1935 is presented, utilizing a more rigorous methodology to revise the widely used, but methodologically outdated, benchmark comparison by Rostas that was published in 1948. Secondly, the comparison is extended to take account of variations in input prices, and it is shown that double deflation has a substantial effect on the new benchmark, particularly at the industry level. Thirdly, labour input is adjusted for actual hours worked. US manufacturing displayed a much higher level of comparative productivity for the key industries of the second industrial revolution, such as chemicals and engineering. These results support revisionist accounts of the depression's strengthening of US productivity leadership.     

环保约谈能否促进企业绿色投资

环保约谈制度是提高环境治理水平所实行的环境执法监督新方式,对于破解环境治理难题,提高环境治理绩效至关重要。本文利用环保约谈所产生的准自然实验变化,以2013—2019年我国重污染行业上市公司为研究样本,考察环保约谈对企业绿色投资的影响。双重差分法的检验结果表明：在环保约谈所涉及城市的上市公司中,环保约谈促进了企业绿色投资。在此基础上,进一步检验发现,环保约谈对绿色投资的促进效果较为明显的企业主要来自于全要素生产率较高,行业市场竞争程度低及融资约束低的企业。研究结论从企业加强环保绿色投资决策的角度为环保约谈的经济后果提供了微观的证据,这不仅对于我们了解环保约谈这一政策对微观主体企业的影响效应具有一定意义,同时,对国家在经济发展中,如何实施更好的环境治理政策具有一定的指导意义。     

A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF AFTA'S PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the impressive economic performance of most of its members have increased the weight of the region's views in world fora. However, ASEAN has been unsuccessful in fostering a regional integration arrangement (RIA) leading to an increase in intraregional trade and foreign direct investment. In January 1992, ASEAN launched the Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA) seeking to establish a free trade area (FTA) by 2008.
Market integration increases economic interdependence and thereby raises the need for policy integration and discipline. This paper argues that a number of difficulties that ASEAN faced in promoting intraregional trade are likely to continue to affect AFTA (e.g., low economic complementarity and macroeconomic imbalances requiring large changes in equilibrium real exchange rates). The experience of other RIAs suggests other potential problems.
AFTA's prospects of evolving into deeper forms of sustainable integration are remote. Some cooperation in areas of common interest seems likely.     

Wage expectations in northern and southern Italian regions: An interpretation based on psychological and social factors

Individual wage expectations of Italian unemployed are studied. The analysis is carried out separately for the North‐Central and southern Italian regions using semiparametric additive models. Results show a marked difference in expectations formation across regions. We argue that as far as the labour market information in the South is less diffuse and more ambiguous than in the North, the divergence between the econometric model based on a utility‐maximisation mainstream theory and the actual wage expectation mechanism may be large. A tentative explanation based on psychological and social factors is offered.     

Central Bank Policy Paths and Market Forward Rates: A Simple Model

Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggests that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture deviations between announced paths and market forward rates. We detail the macroeconomic transmission of such deviations and show how the model can inform policy deliberations.     

Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?

This paper proposes an arbitrage-free model to extract the information that the term structure of forward premia contains for forecasting future spot exchange rates. Using monthly data on four U.S. dollar bilateral exchange rates, we find evidence that this model provides statistically better forecasts than those produced by a random walk for the British pound and Canadian dollar exchange rates. Negative results for the German mark/Euro and Swiss franc are explained by a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the term structure model.