The Risk Structure of Land Markets

Real property as an asset class represents over half of the wealth in the United States. Nevertheless, the structure of risk in real property markets is poorly understood. This paper develops a model of urban and agricultural land prices that integrates spatial and asset pricing theories and characterizes the spatial and temporal risk structure of the land market. Urban land is priced by a CAPM and agricultural land is priced by a real option to convert into urban land. We show that the price of land awaiting conversion increases with the growth rate of urban rents and unsystematic risk but decreases with risk aversion. However, it may be increasing or decreasing in systematic risk. The free boundary for exercise determines city size, which increases with the growth rate of urban rents but decreases with systematic and unsystematic risk.     

An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets

This research analyzes the dynamic properties of the difference equation that arises when markets exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. We identify the correlation and reversion parameters for which prices will overshoot equilibrium ("cycles") and/or diverge permanently from equilibrium. We then estimate the serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a large panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979 to 1995 conditional on a set of economic variables that proxy for information costs, supply costs and expectations. Serial correlation is higher in metro areas with higher real incomes, population growth and real construction costs. Mean reversion is greater in large metro areas and faster growing cities with lower construction costs. The average fitted values for mean reversion and serial correlation lie in the convergent oscillatory region, but specific observations fall in both the damped and oscillatory regions and in both the convergent and divergent regions. Thus, the dynamic properties of housing markets are specific to the given time and location being considered.     

The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth

In a very simple model in which capital is durable and landowners have perfect foresight, the price of urban land has four additive components: the value of agricultural land rent, the cost of conversion, the value of accessibility, and the value of expected future rent increases, a growth premium. In rapidly growing cities, the growth premium may easily account for half of the average price of land and may create a large gap between the price of land at the boundary (minus conversion cost) and the value of agricultural land rent.     

Human capital and firms’ innovation: evidence from emerging economies

ABSTRACT

We explore the relationship between human capital and firms’ innovation in emerging economies. Most papers consider the formal knowledge developed in R&D laboratories as a major source of innovation. However, a critical portion of knowledge required for innovation resides in human resources and is created outside any formalised R&D activity. We consider that, to improve their technological capabilities, firms should invest in different forms of human capital, namely highly educated workforce and experienced managers, but also in strategic human resource (HR) practices aimed at developing human capital by increasing employees’ firm-specific technical skills and competences. Besides looking at the type of innovation outcomes, we place greater emphasis on the strategies of innovation development, as these should signal an improved firms’ ability, not just to innovate, but to put their own creative effort in the development of innovation. Our results contrast with the traditional view of firms in emerging economies as mainly relying on the external acquisition of innovations, by showing their actual ability to develop new technologies. In this respect, HR practices aimed at fostering employees’ learning and autonomy at work appear more important than the educational attainment of workers, whilst the experience of managers does not seem effective.     

Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option

In real options models, investment can increase under some conditions when interest rates rise. This research tests for these positive interest rate responses in the context of the Capozza–Li model of land development. In the model variable capital intensity is a sufficient condition for positive responses to interest rates that can occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high. The empirical analysis uses a panel data set on residential investment in the 1980s and finds that 25–50% of the sample lies in the positive response region.     

Focus, Transparency and Value: The REIT Evidence

We trace the effects of corporate focus by examining the relationships among focus, cash flows and firm value. In contrast to past studies that examine the effects of diversifying across SIC-code-defined industries, we show that diversification, even within a single industry, reduces value. Our evidence, drawn from a panel of real estate investment trusts, indicates that this reduction is not due to poor managerial performance. Project-level cash flows are actually higher for less focused firms. However, these gains are offset by higher management, administrative and interest expenses. Thus, the corporate cash flows available to shareholders are not related to focus. Finally, we provide empirical evidence that links the effect of focus on value to informational asymmetries which cause the equity of diversified firms to be less liquid. We attribute some of the effect of focus on the cost of both debt and equity to informational asymmetries or transparency costs.     

Subprime Transitions: Lingering or Malingering in Default?

When a mortgage borrower becomes seriously delinquent (i.e., defaults), the lender initiates a time consuming and complex recovery process that may or may not result in foreclosure and eventual disposition of the real estate collateral (REO). This research studies this transition process for a unique sample of subprime mortgages that were seriously delinquent on September 30, 2001. Eight months later, possible states for the delinquent loans, in order, are 1)to remain delinquent without deteriorating further, 2) foreclosure, 3) worsen, i.e., become more months delinquent, 4) bankruptcy and 5) cure. The data indicate that, relative to prime loans, when subprime loans become seriously delinquent (90 days or longer) they are about twice as likely to become REO but take about four times longer to get there. It is unusual for a subprime default to be cured suggesting considerable forbearance by subprime lenders. We explore determinants of the transition probabilities and find that the most economically important predictors of transition from default to any other state are the number of payments the borrower has made and the loan to value ratio.