Political credibility and economic growth in less developed countries

While the mainstream of economic development theory focuses on the efficiency of policy measures, the role of the credibility of these measures is rarely analyzed. In this paper we argue that in less developed countries the problem of establishing the credibility of policy measures is at least as important as the problem of choosing the efficient policy solution. We claim that many of the difficulties less developed countries face can be understood in terms of lack of effective control on the discretionary power of governments, which ultimately leads to policies that are not credible. The private sector anticipates large swings in policies and reacts by withholding its resources. Symptoms of these credibility problems in less developed countries include the size of the informal sector, capital flight, and the reluctance of investors to commit capital. All of these reactions contribute to the slow economic growth in these countries. This paper concludes that establishing strategies for the control of state discretionary power is a crucial precondition for overcoming these problems and generating long term economic growth.     

Investment and institutional uncertainty: A comparative study of different uncertainty measures

Investment and Institutional Uncertainty: A Comparative Study of Different Uncertainty Measures. — There is ample empirical evidence of a negative relationship between aspects of institutional uncertainty and investment. Most studies, however, do not allow a comparison between different dimensions of such uncertainty because they focus on specific indicators, particular regions or different periods. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the quantitative effects of the significant uncertainty indicators on investment finding that a lack of rule of law, high corruption, and volatility in real exchange rate distortions are the most detrimental for investment.     

Is Financial Fragility a Matter of Illiquidity? An Appraisal for Italian Households

We investigate household financial fragility in Italy, providing three main contributions. First, we propose a novel characterization of financial fragility that is not necessarily linked to indebtedness, distinguishes between expected and unexpected expenses, takes portfolio composition into account, and is free of subjectivity bias. Second, we use it to assess the importance of household portfolio composition for determining the difficulties related to coping with unexpected expenditures, besides socio‐economic and demographic factors. Third, we test its ability to forecast future conditions of financial distress. The empirical analysis is based on the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth. The results highlight the relevance of portfolio choices as determinants of financial distress, that is, they provide evidence that homeownership increases the likelihood of financial fragility while the presence of a mortgage decreases it. Moreover our measure is shown to act as an early warning indicator of distress.     

Cost of Equity Capital and Additionality of Brazilian Renewable Energy Projects Under the Clean Development Mechanism

The purpose of this study was to assess additionality and the practice of estimating the cost of equity capital in 70 renewable energy projects in Brazil. Forty projects demonstrated additionality by means of financial analysis. No strong or clear relationships were found between project characteristics and the financial method used to demonstrate additionality. Among projects that used financial analysis, the evaluation often employed the risk-free rate. Failure to add any risk premium to projects of this nature suggests a certain analytical carelessness, perhaps induced by the innovative or experimental nature of these projects.     

The experience of technological collaborations by MERCOSUR companies

This paper examines some of the experiences in information and knowledge sharing involving MERCOSUR firm. It finds that while technological collaborations by MERCOSUR firms are relatively few, located in low-tech sectors and taking place in an environment of little innovation, they are motivated by the need to 'fuse' their own knowledge with that of partner or to improve available information. Modes of governance vary accordingly, with equity or contractual forms being used for new developments and informal agreements for improvements. Govmments and business associations can be important facilitators of technological collaborations. The analysis of technological collaborations suggested that the better prepared a corporation entered an agreement the more successful it was likely to be. It also pointed out that where interactions were intense, well intended and transparent, included personnel exchanges, were properly assessed and involved receptive participants, learning progressed smoothly and partners were satisfied. Benefits of the collaborations included new patentable and non-patentable products new factories, as well as building trust between partners. Premature termination of some collaborations was the result of financia1 limitations unrelated to the success of the collaboration.     

Marriage and other risky assets: A portfolio approach

We study the joint impact of gender and marital status on financial investments by testing the hypothesis that marriage represents – in a portfolio framework – a sort of safe asset and that this attribute may change over time. We show that married individuals have a higher propensity to invest in risky assets than single ones, that this marital status gap is stronger for women and that, for women only, it evolves and declines at the end of the sample period. Next we explore a number of possible explanations of the observed gender differences by controlling for background factors that capture the evolution of family and society. We find that both the higher female marital status gap and its time variability vanish for those women who are employed. Our empirical investigation is based on a dataset drawn from the 1993–2006 Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth.     

Household portfolio choices,health status and health care systems: A cross-country analysis based on SHARE

Health risk is increasingly viewed as an important form of background risk that affects household portfolio decisions. However, its role might be mediated by the presence of a protective full-coverage national health service that could reduce households’ probability of incurring current and future out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We use SHARE data to study the influence of current health status and future health risk on the decision to hold risky assets, across ten European countries with different health systems, each offering a different degree of protection against out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We find robust empirical evidence that perceived health status matters more than objective health status and, consistent with the theory of background risk, health risk affects portfolio choices only in countries with less protective health care systems. Furthermore, portfolio decisions consistent with background risk models are observed only with respect to middle-aged and highly-educated investors.     

Word-of-mouth communications in marketing: a meta-analytic review of the antecedents and moderators

Although word-of-mouth (WOM) activity has been studied as an outcome variable of other constructs such as satisfaction, less attention has been given to the antecedents and moderators of WOM when considering WOM as a central construct. Hence, we propose a model of WOM antecedents and moderators using a meta-analytic review. The results show that all antecedents have significant effects on WOM activity, with customer commitment showing the strongest effect. The following hypotheses are also supported: (1) WOM valence is a significant moderator, (2) cross-sectional studies show a stronger influence of satisfaction and loyalty on WOM activity than longitudinal studies, and (3) studies of WOM behavior show a weaker link between loyalty and WOM activity than studies of WOM intentions. In addition, we show that satisfaction has a stronger relationship with positive WOM than loyalty, whereas (dis)loyalty has a stronger relationship with negative WOM than does (dis)satisfaction. We discuss this finding based on the different natures of positive and negative WOM. This article is based on the first author’s dissertation.     

Economic activity and recession probabilities: information content and predictive power of the term spread in Italy

The aim of the present article is to examine the information content of the Italian term spread as for real economic growth rates and recession probabilities and to test its predictive power in forecasting regime probabilities. To this end the relationship between the term spread and economic growth rates is modelled as a nonlinear one and specifically the Logistic Smooth Transition model is used, while a probit model is implemented to forecast recession probabilities. Specific to this article is the use of the OECD business cycle chronology, which was never used before to this end for the Italian case. Overall evidence supports the informative content of the spread in Italy over the whole period (1984–2005) although results are more satisfactory as from 1992. In particular, recession forecasts are generally better than those obtained with other chronologies previously adopted for the Italian case (ISAE and ECRI).