The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy

Can the yield spread, which has been found to predict with surprising accuracy the movement of key macroeconomic variables of developed countries, also predict such variables for a developing country experiencing economic turmoil? This article presents empirical results that suggest significant forecasting ability for the yield spread for segments of the Mexican economy during the 1995–1997 period of economic volatility. The actual and predicted variable changes sometimes conflict with those experienced by developed countries in part because of the unusually close relationship between the Mexican Treasury and the Banco de México. Consequently, analysts and policy officials may exploit the forecast potential of the yield spread, but only in the context of evolving institutional considerations.     

Claimholder incentive conflicts in reorganization: the role of bankruptcy law

When a firm is in financial distress, in most cases a set ofmutually advantageous reorganization plans exist. This articleshows that the bankruptcy code, by providing rules governingthe negotiation process, yields a unique solution to the reorganizationprocess. In addition, the structure imposed by the code mitigatesthe holdout problem created by the individual claimant's divergentincentives.     

North-South trade: is Africa unusual?

We estimate a gravity model to address the question of whetherAfrica's bilateral trade with industrial countries is 'unusual'compared with other developing country regions. Our main findingis that the unusually low level of African trade is explainedby economic size, geographical distance and population. Thisresult holds after controlling for a country's access to thesea, composition of exports, linguistic ties with industrialcountries and trade policies. If anything, the average Africancountry tends to 'overtrade' compared with developing countriesin other regions, although the degree to which Africa overtradeshad steadily declined over the past two-and-one-half decades.