Municipal Bond Demand Premiums and Bond Price Volatility: A Note

The behavior of different components of municipal bond yields may have a significant impact upon bond price behavior. Specifically, demand premiums created by banks may stabilize bond yields in some maturity ranges but not in others; for example, short-term municipals may be stabilized but not long-term. This research implies that bank demand behavior may create demand premiums that stabilize prices of short-term municipal bonds relative to those of Treasury bonds of like maturity. While this implication is inconsistent with the residual theory of bank demand, it is consistent with the tax-shield theory attributed to Hendershott and Koch [3, 4].     

EQUITY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF POSSIBLE CO2 TREATY PROPOSALS

The Montreal Protocol on chlorofluorocarbon control established an important precedent for global environmental treaties that include both developing countries and industrial countries. This paper evaluates seven possible treaty proposals to control carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Growth-rate control proposals fail on effectiveness of control or on equity differences between developing countries and industrial countries. Complex proposals link policies in population growth, economic development, world energy taxation, and forestation. These complex proposals, which appear to be both effective and equitable, can defer or avoid CO2 doubling.     

A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY RESEARCH

After more than a decade of scientific warning, the policy community has begun to take up the challenge of global climate change. This paper considers recent efforts to analyze policymaking in this area. Shortcomings in present policy research include: (i) inconsistencies in data and methods, (ii) myopic vision of available options, (Hi) overly anthropocentric cost/benefit assessments, (iv) inadequate treatment of uncertainly and irreversibility, (v) lack of recognition of developing and developed countries' differential motives, (vi) unsatisfactory presentation and interpretation of results, and (vii) limited peer review.     

Futures Manipulation with “Cash Settlement”

This paper investigates the susceptibility of futures markets to price manipulation in a two-period model with asymmetric information and “cash settlement” futures contracts. Without “physical delivery,” strategies based on “corners” or “squeezes” are infeasible. However, uninformed investors still earn positive expected profits by establishing a futures position and then trading in the spot market to manipulate the spot price used to compute the cash settlement at delivery. We also show that as the number of manipulators grows, profits from manipulation fall to zero. However, even in the limit, manipulation still has a nontrivial impact on market liquidity. More broadly, we interpret manipulation as a form of endogenous “noise trading” which can arise in multiperiod security markets.     

VALUING EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND FISHERY ENHANCEMENT ON CHINOOK SALMON

This paper represents a continuing multidisciplinary analysis of species preservation and global change. It explores the economic cost of a potential regional warming's effect on the spring chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshcawytscha). Climate change and planned habitat improvements impact the production and economic value of spring chinook salmon in the Yakima River tributary of the Columbia River in eastern Washington. A chinook salmon's total economic value includes the summation of the existence, commercial, recreational, and capital values. The analysis here applies currently available data on these four components of value to estimated changes in chinook salmon population resulting from regional warming. Results show that the estimated change in economic value per fish associated with reducing one fish run is significant .     

NEGOTIATING A RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: ROLE OF BIOLOGICAL EMISSIONS

Researchers have attributed 15 percent of global methane releases to emissions of methane from enteric fermentation in animals (wild and domestic). Bovines contribute approximately two-thirds of this amount. Since methane is a potent greenhouse gas, this source frequently is a target for emission reductions. However, the existing literature overstates the importance of bovine methane as a greenhouse gas by as much as 800 percent. Estimates to date have focused solely on gas emissions, ignoring the biological and chemical cycling that removes carbon from the atmosphere. The analysis presented here demonstrates the importance of these cycles in assessing the overall greenhouse effect of biological methane sources such as rice production, termites, and bovine animals. Ignoring this cycling results in overemphasizing the role of developing countries' total contributions to climate change. In economic terms, the analysis shows that reducing CO2 emissions from energy use in industrialized countries is more efficient than reducing net greenhouse methane from animal sources.     

Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation

We investigate the flattening Phillips relation by making two departures from standard specifications. First, we measure slack using real activity variables that are bandpass filtered or year-over-year changes in activity (these are similar), instead of gaps. Second, we study the components of inflation instead of the standard aggregates. We find that some inflation components have strong and stable correlations with the cyclical component of real activity; these components tend to be relatively well-measured and domestically determined. Other components, typically prices that are poorly measured or internationally determined, have weak and/or unstable correlations with cyclical activity. We construct a new inflation index, cyclically sensitive inflation, that weights the components by their joint cyclical covariation with real activity. The index has strong and stable correlations with cyclical activity and provides a real-time measure of cyclical movements in inflation.     

THE ETERNITY PROBLEM: NUCLEAR POWER WASTE STORAGE

This paper treats an important problem that has not been treated elsewhere: the relationship between the evolution of the nuclear power industry and the costs of centralized and on-site storage of spent fuel. The conclusion is that centralized storage, as current policy contemplates, would be cheaper given an expanding nuclear industry as projected during the 1970s. But given the current situation of no expansion – i.e., no new orders – the cost advantage of centralized storage disappears. Moreover, if the components of decommissioned reactors are to be stored on site – as seems likely – then perhaps spent fuel should be stored there also.