Technological innovation and real investment booms and busts

We investigate why new, high-risk technologies can attract excessive and often unprofitable investment. We develop an equilibrium model in which rational, risk-averse agents overinvest in a risky technology, possibly to the point that its expected return is negative. Overinvestment results from relative wealth concerns which arise endogenously from the imperfect tradability of future endowments. Competition over future consumption leads to an indirect utility for wealth with “keeping up with the Joneses” properties that can induce herding. Because overinvestment increases with the risk of the technology, our model can explain why new, risky technological innovations may promote investment bubbles.     

Agency and Optimal Investment Dynamics

Agency problems limit firms’ access to capital markets,curbing investment. Firms and investors seek contractual waysto mitigate these problems. What are the implications for investment?We present a theory of a firm’s investment dynamics inthe presence of agency problems and optimal long-term financialcontracts. We derive results relating firms’ investmentdecisions, current and past cash flows, firm size, capital structure,and dividends. Among the results, optimal investment is increasingin current and past cash flow; and optimal investment is positivelyserially correlated over time (after controlling for investmentopportunities). These results hold for a range of agency problems.(JEL G30, G31, G32, G35, D82, D86, D92)     

Optimal Long-Term Financial Contracting

We develop an agency model of financial contracting. We derivelong-term debt, a line of credit, and equity as optimal securities,capturing the debt coupon and maturity; the interest rate andlimits on the credit line; inside versus outside equity; dividendpolicy; and capital structure dynamics. The optimal debt-equityratio is history dependent, but debt and credit line terms areindependent of the amount financed and, in some cases, the severityof the agency problem. In our model, the agent can divert cashflows; we also consider settings in which the agent undertakeshidden effort, or can control cash flow risk.     

On the uniqueness of fully informative rational expectations equilibria

Summary. This paper analyzes two equivalent equilibrium notions under asymmetric information: risk neutral rational expectations equilibria (rn-REE), and common knowledge equilibria. We show that the set of fully informative rn-REE is a singleton, and we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of partially informative rn-REE. In a companion paper (DeMarzo and Skiadas (1996)) we show that equilibrium prices for the larger class of quasi-complete economies can be characterized as rn-REE. Examples of quasi-complete economies include the type of economies for which demand aggregation in the sense of Gorman is possible (with or without asymmetric information), the setting of the Milgrom and Stokey no-trade theorem, an economy giving rise to the CAPM with asymmetric information but no normality assumptions, the simple exponential-normal model of Grossman (1976), and a case of no aggregate endowment risk. In the common-knowledge context, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a common knowledge posterior estimate, given common priors, to coincide with the full communication posterior estimate. Received: May 29, 1997; revised version: July 18, 1997     

The Pooling and Tranching of Securities: A Model of Informed Intermediation

I show that when an issuer has superior information about thevalue of its assets, it is better off selling assets separatelyrather than as a pool due to the information destruction effectof pooling. If, however, the issuer can create a derivativesecurity that is collateralized by the assets, pooling and "tranching"may be optimal. If the residual risk of each asset is not highlycorrelated, tranching allows the issuer to exploit the riskdiversification effect of pooling to create a low-risk and highlyliquid security. In contrast, for an uninformed seller, purepooling reduces underpricing and is preferred to separate assetsales. These results lead to a dynamic model of financial intermediation:originators sell pools of assets, some of which are purchasedby informed intermediaries who then further pool and tranchethem. Pooling and tranching allow intermediaries to leveragetheir capital more efficiently, enhancing the returns to theirprivate information.     

Relative Wealth Concerns and Financial Bubbles

We present a rational general equilibrium model that highlightsthe fact that relative wealth concerns can play a role in explainingfinancial bubbles. We consider a finite-horizon overlappinggenerations model in which agents care only about their consumption.Though the horizon is finite, competition over future investmentopportunities makes agents' utilities dependent on the wealthof their cohort and induces relative wealth concerns. Agentsherd into risky securities and drive down their expected return.Even though the bubble is likely to burst and lead to a substantialloss, agents' relative wealth concerns make them afraid to tradeagainst the crowd.     

Corporate incentives for hedging and hedge accounting

This article explores the information effect of financial riskmanagement. Financial hedging improves the informativeness ofcorporate earnings as a signal of management ability and projectquality by eliminating extraneous noise. Managerial and shareholderincentives regarding information transmission may differ, however,leading to conflicts regarding an optimal hedging policy. Weshow that these incentives depend on the accounting informationmade available by the firm. Under some circumstances, if hedgetransactions are not disclosed (i.e., firms report only aggregateearnings), managers hedge to achieve greater risk reductionthan they would if full disclosure were required. In these cases,it is optimal for shareholders to request only aggregate accountingreports.     

Self-Regulation and Government Oversight

Self-regulation is a feature of a number of professions. For example, in the U.S. the government delegates aspects of financial market regulation to self-regulatory organizations (SROs) like the New York Stock Exchange and the National Association of Securities Dealers. We analyse one regulatory task of an SRO, enforcing antifraud rules so agents will not cheat customers. Specifically, we model contracting/enforcement as a two-tier problem. An SRO chooses its enforcement policy: the likelihood that an agent is investigated for fraud and a penalty schedule. Given an enforcement policy, agents compete by offering contracts that maximize customers' expected utility. We assume that the SRO's objective is to maximize the welfare of its members, the agents. We show that the SRO chooses a more lax enforcement policy—meaning less frequent investigations—than what customers would choose. A general conclusion is that control of the enforcement policy governing contracts confers substantial market power to a group of otherwise competitive agents. We also investigate government oversight of the self-regulatory process. The threat of government enforcement leads to more enforcement by the SRO, just enough to pre-empt any government enforcement.     

Optimal Incentive Contracts When Agents Can Save, Borrow, and Default

The standard Principal–Agent (PA) model assumes that the principal can control the agent's consumption profile. In an intertemporal setting, however, Rogerson (1985, Econometrica53, 69–76) shows that given the optimal PA contract, the agent has an unmet precautionary demand for savings. Thus the standard PA model is invalid if the agent has access to credit markets. In this paper we generalize the standard PA model to allow for saving and borrowing by the agent. We show that the impact of such access critically depends upon the treatment of default. If default is not permitted, efficiency is strictly reduced by the introduction of credit markets, and the equilibrium level of borrowing or saving is indeterminate in the model. If default is allowed, however, the optimal contract depends upon the level of bankruptcy protection in the economy, which is described by a minimum level of wage income. We show that there is an optimal intermediate range of bankruptcy protection. Within this range, allowing default increases efficiency in the economy relative to the case of no default. Also, the model predicts specific levels of consumer debt, interest rates, and default rates as functions of the level of bankruptcy protection level. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D80, G21, G28, J30.