Large scale infrastructure investment and economic performance – a case study of Oresund

We analyse the effect of a large scale infrastructure investment, namely the construction of the Oresund bridge, on the local and supra-regional economy. We employ the synthetic control method to construct counterfactual regions that mimic the trajectory of Malmo and Southern Sweden without treatment. Our results point to a positive effect. However, placebo tests in space and time only reveal statistical significance at a larger regional level. The results suggest that spillover effects are eminent.     

Costs and potential funding of expanded public pension coverage in Asia

Public pension burdens in most emerging Asian economies are still relatively small. However, there are a number of reasons to believe that they will increase markedly in the coming years. First, many Asian economies will face rapidly ageing populations, which will raise pension and other old‐age‐related spending dramatically. Second, as economies develop, political pressures to expand the coverage of public pensions and raise pension benefits will likely increase. The first objective of this paper is to identify the potential fiscal burden of public pensions in 23 emerging Asian economies, based on econometric models and forecasts of GDP and demographic trends. Using two different methodologies yields estimated increases in the average share of public pension expenditures in GDP of 1.0 percentage point and 3.6 percentage points by 2030 compared with current levels. We believe the latter estimate is more realistic. The second objective is to recommend policies to provide adequate funding for public pension needs, including enhancing the efficiency of social insurance programs, improving the balance of revenues and expenditures, implementing more explicit fiscal rules and frameworks, and establishing stronger fiscal surveillance at the national and regional levels.     

Intra-Household Resource Allocation, Consumer Preferences and Commodity Tax Reforms: Australian Evidence

Empirical analysis of household expenditure behaviour has traditionally ignored the issue of resource allocation between household members, assuming that they have identical or unitary preferences. This paper relaxes that assumption, develops a household sharing rule and proposes intra-household demand systems that are able to identify differences in the preferences of members from conventional data. The resulting price and expenditure elasticities are used to demonstrate that collective demand models suggest different directions for commodity tax reforms to those implied by the traditional unitary model.     

The Local Whittle Estimator of Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility

We propose a new semiparametric estimator of the degree of persistencein volatility for long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) models.The estimator uses the periodogram of the log squared returnsin a local Whittle criterion which explicitly accounts for thenoise term in the LMSV model. Finite-sample and asymptotic standarderrors for the estimator are provided. An extensive simulationstudy reveals that the local Whittle estimator is much lessbiased and that the finite-sample standard errors yield moreaccurate confidence intervals than the widely-used GPH estimator.The estimator is also found to be robust against possible leverageeffects. In an empirical analysis of the daily Deutsche Mark/USDollar exchange rate, the new estimator indicates stronger persistencein volatility than the GPH estimator, provided that a largenumber of frequencies is used.     

A Cross Country Comparison of Child Nutrition and Investigation of its Demographic Determinants

This study pools data on child anthropometrics and on their determinants from Pakistan, Peru, Jamaica, Russia and South Africa. It, then, estimates regression equations of child height and weight, measured by the Z-scores, on both combined country data and, separately, for each country. Moreover, the study estimates the child height and weight equations, separately, for young (0–36 months) and older children (37–72 months) and provides evidence on the impact of household assets and of a household’s access to basic amenities on the health of its children. The child health in the five countries chosen, which are culturally, economically, politically and geographically, quite diverse, are compared. The paper finds that the hard core cases of child malnutrition are not necessarily related to poverty or inequality. Female education plays an effective role in improving child health, with its beneficial effects considerably enhanced in households with access to public information through the radio or the TV.

     

What Role Taxes and Regulation? A Second Look at Open Market Share Buyback Activity in the UK

This paper re-examines the evidence on open market share repurchase activity reported by Rau and Vermaelen (2002) for the UK. Using data from the Securities Data Corporation (SDC), Rau and Vermaelen conclude that the level of repurchase activity is trivial. They attribute the low repurchase volume to regulatory restrictions that limit companies' ability to take advantage of an undervalued stock price and conclude that the bulk of repurchase activity that does occur is driven by the desire to generate tax credits for pension funds. Using data collected from a variety of sources, we find that the SDC substantially understates UK open market buyback activity. Based on our more comprehensive dataset we conclude that (a) pension funds' tax considerations are not the primary cause of UK share repurchases and (b) despite the prevailing regulatory environment, underpricing still represents an important determinant of repurchase activity.     

How to measure mutual fund performance: economic versus statistical relevance

In the present paper a comprehensive assessment of existing mutual fund performance models is presented. Using a survivor‐bias free database of all US mutual funds, we explore the added value of introducing extra variables such as size, book‐to‐market, momentum and a bond index. In addition to that we evaluate the use of introducing time‐variation in betas and alpha. The search for the most suitable model to measure mutual fund performance will be addressed along two lines. First, we are interested in the statistical significance of adding more factors to the single factor model. Second, we focus on the economic importance of more elaborate model specifications. The added value of the present study lies both in the step‐wise process of identifying relevant factors, and the use of a rich US mutual fund database that was recently released by the Center for Research in Security Prices.     

A conceptual framework of anonymity in Group Support Systems

As the development and use of automated systems for collaborative work grows, the need for a better understanding of these systems becomes more important. Our focus is on one type of system, a Group Support System (GSS) and, in particular, on one important aspect of a GSS—anonymity. A conceptual framework for the study of anonymity in a GSS is presented, which describes the general classes of variables and their relationships. These variables include the factors that influence anonymity in a GSS, types of anonymity, and the effects of anonymity on a message sender, receiver, group process, and outcome. Each of these variables is discussed with working propositions presented for important group process and outcome measures. The objectives of this article are to highlight the importance and complexity of anonymity, to act as a guide for empirical investigations of anonymity, and to influence future GSS development and use.