我国非煤矿山风险管理现状分析与对策研究

随着我国非煤矿山安全生产水平的不断提升,风险管理发挥着巨大的作用,但目前仍然存在一些问题。本文就这些问题进行分析、探究,并就如何提高风险管理水平提出了一些建议。     

Pricing real assets with costly search

Markets for many real assets are characterized by sequentialsearch followed by bilateral bargaining between matched buyersand sellers. For a category of real assets, the joint, intertemporalvaluation problems of buyers, owners, and sellers and the associatedNash pricing function are solved explicity. In equilibrium,the average transaction price is a noisy, proportional randomwalk, and the liquidity premium is positive for matched owners.Depending on the values of the parameters, the liquidity ofoptimal development with costly search, the optimal exercisepoint, cost of development, and value of the undeveloped assetare calculated analytically. With search, development can occursooner and undeveloped assets have lower market values thanthe standard solution without search.     

Financial and industrial structure with agency

A subgame perfect Nash equilibrium is characterized for an industrywith dissipative costs of agency. In sequence, firms can enterthe industry, raise capital with external debt and/or equity,invest in a capital-intensive technology of dissipate capitalin perquisites, and finally produce output. For plausible valuesof two critical parameters, some firms forego in equilibriuminvestments with positive net present values. Although moremanagers would like their firms to invest in the capital-intensivetechnology, they cannot raise the required cash in the capitalmarket. In equilibrium, the industry can have both a profitablecore of large, secure, capital-intensive firms, with some debtbut no unique optimal capital structure, and a competitive fringeof small, risky, labor-intensive firms. Even as the cost ofentry converges to zero, capital-intensive firms can earn extraordinaryprofits, while all labor-intensive firms fail. With costly agency,access to capital can become a barrier to entry.     

Equilibrium and options on real assets

In aggregate, options on real and financial assets can havevery different properties. Typically, the good or service producedby a real asset has a finite elasticity of demand, and developershave finite capacities. Also, the supply of options can be limited,and developers can be less than perfectly competitive. In asubgame, perfect Nash equilibrium with these properties, theoptimal exercise policy, and resulting values of developed andundeveloped assets are calculated explicitly. The novel comparativestatics are discussed in detail.     

Assisting the Long-Term Unemployed: Results from a Randomised Trial

Welfare reform in Australia centres on both economic and social participation. The policy concern is that people who fail to participate in economic and social life may become entrenched in disadvantage. In 2000–2001, a randomised trial was conducted by the Department of Family and Community Services to assess whether an intensive interview with follow-ups would result in increased participation for long-term recipients of income support. Participation in the trial led to a reduction in average hours worked, but increased hours spent in study or training. We find evidence of increased social integration associated with participation in the trial.     

Valuing Employee Share Options: Four Australian Case Studies

We take four case studies to illustrate three issues: how ESOs are valued; how the valuation depends on assumptions; and how US proposals to account for ESOs would affect a company's financial profile. We adopt the Black-Scholes options model to value ESOs issued by Brambles Industries, Coles Myer, Tabcorp Holdings and Westpac Banking Corporation. Under the FASB's proposal, after-tax profit is lower and shareholders' funds and assets are higher beginning with the grant date. At the end of the amortisation period, assets and shareholders' funds would be the same as under current practice, but the fair value of the ESOs on their grant date would have been transferred from unappropriated profits to issued capital.     

Cost-effectiveness modeling for neuropathic pain treatments: investigating the relative importance of parameters using an open-source model

Aims: The study objective was to develop an open-source replicate of a cost-effectiveness model developed by National Institute for Health and Care (NICE), in order to explore uncertainties in health economic modeling of novel pharmacological neuropathic pain treatments.

Materials and methods: The NICE model, consisting of a decision tree with branches for discrete levels of pain relief and adverse event (AE) severities, was replicated using R, and used to compare a hypothetical neuropathic pain drug to pregabalin. Model parameters were sourced from NICE’s clinical guidelines and associated with probability distributions to account for underlying uncertainty. A simulation-based scenario analysis was conducted to assess how uncertainty in efficacy and AEs affected the net monetary benefit (NMB) for the hypothetical treatment at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY.

Results: Relative to pregabalin, an increase in efficacy was associated with greater NMB than an improvement in tolerability. A greater NMB was observed when efficacy was marginally higher than that of pregabalin, while maintaining the same level of AEs than when efficacy was equivalent to pregabalin, but with a more substantial reduction in AEs. In the latter scenario, the NMB was only positive at a low cost-effectiveness threshold.

Limitations: The replicate model shares the limitations described in the NICE guidelines. There is a lack of support in scientific literature for the assumption that increased efficacy is associated with a greater reduction in tolerability. The replicate model also included a single comparator, unlike the NICE model.

Conclusions: Pain relief is a stronger driver of NMB than tolerability, at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY. Health technology assessment decisions which are influenced by NICE’s model may reward efficacy gains, even if they are associated with more severe AEs. This contrasts with recommendations from clinical guidelines for neuropathic pain, which place more equal weighting on improvements in efficacy and tolerability as value drivers.