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This paper assesses the real-time performance of the Commerce Department's composite index of leading indicators. The authors find that the composite leading index has failed to provide reliable advance warning of cyclical turning points. One reason for this failure is that the leading index's transition from expansion to contraction generally is not very sharp. Consequently, discerning real-time cyclical peaks in the index is difficult. Transitions from contraction to expansion on average are sharp. However, cyclical troughs in the leading index often precede cyclical troughs in the economy by only a few months. Thus, even timely recognition of troughs in the leading index fails to provide advance warning of turnarounds in the general level of economic activity . 相似文献
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Even after more than a decade of low inflation, Croatia remains highly dollarized. Commercial banks avoid currency mismatch by indexing loans to the exchange rate. Although this eliminates direct currency risk, it creates credit risk, because any larger depreciation might induce borrower defaults. Monetary and exchange rate policies focus on exchange rate smoothing to safeguard financial stability. Dollarization has prevented the use of monetary policy to stabilize output. Given Croatia's likely entry into the EU and adoption of the Euro, dedollarization seems unfeasible. Rather than attempting to reverse dollarization, the central bank has taken measures to make the banking system more robust to shocks. (JEL E52, E58, F31, G21, P24 ) 相似文献
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EVAN OSBORNE 《Contemporary economic policy》2006,24(4):536-547
Cross-country growth regressions have become an increasingly common tool in empirical development research. But these regressions typically do not attempt to distinguish among countries in different stages of development. Three empirical methods are used to test for such differences. Several of the factors known to affect economic growth are shown to operate differently for countries in different portions of the global income distribution. The results have implications for the role of financial markets, openness and factor accumulation in promoting growth. (JEL O150 , O160 , O400 ) 相似文献
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EVAN E. ANDERSON 《The Journal of consumer affairs》1973,7(2):111-120
In consumer good markets, wide variations occur in warranty policies and practices between products, firms and industries. In this paper, those warranty policies designed to provide self-protection for the seller are examined. The protective facet of warranties carefully delimits the responsibility of the manufacturer for post-sale product performance and quality and hence stabilizes the firm's future costs and profits. The author has striven to conceptualize the association which may exist between a firm's products and markets and the policy objectives of its warranty. Several hypotheses concerning the conditions under which the warranty may be viewed by the seller as a tool of self-protection are suggested; these hypotheses are tested through an analysis of survey data collected from industry executives. 相似文献
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This paper evaluates the theoretical basis of New ClassicalMacroeconomics (NCM) in general, and in particular the basisof one of NCM's main policy conclusions, namely fiscal rules.We analyse NCM in terms of its assumptions of market clearingand rational expectations formations and show how its call forfiscal rules is derived. We argue that NCM is describing a staticworld with no uncertainty. Indeed, we argue that fixed fiscalrules can only make sense in such a world. In view of NCM'sinstrumentalist position, its predictions are then discussedin light of the empirical evidence. The results are discouragingfor proponents of NCM. Our conclusion is that NCM has low explanatoryand predictive power and, as such, does not provide a strongbasis for determining economic policy. 相似文献
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In this paper, we examine the mean reverting behaviour of fiscal deficit by analysing the fiscal position of 24 developing countries. Using annual data over the period 1970–2003 and the series‐specific panel unit root test developed by Breuer et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64 (2002), pp. 527–546), we found the budget process for most developing countries fails to satisfy the strong‐form sustainability condition. Further investigation shows the budget process for a majority of the countries is on a sustainable path (weak form) when a one‐time, structural break is allowed in the model. Therefore, our empirical results suggest that the budget process in most of the sample countries is in accordance with the intertemporal budget constraint. 相似文献