Discussion of “Forward Versus Trailing Earnings in Equity Valuation”

The focus of this discussion is on the empirical implications of Yee (2004, this issue). Yee's key contribution is the introduction of belief dependency into the model developed in Ohlson (1995), Feltham and Ohlson (1995, 1996), and Ohlson and Zhang (1998). Yee's primary conclusion is that accruals that do not incorporate beliefs about unobservable information lead to contemporaneous accounting data that are not sufficient for valuation but often belief-free accruals can lead to forward earnings that may be valuation sufficient. Yee (2004) provides an alternative theoretical model of the relation between firm value, trailing earnings, and forward earnings. This model may be used (1) to re-interpret the results of numerous empirical studies of the relation between market metrics, trailing earnings, and forward earnings, and (2) as the basis for framing further hypotheses and empirical studies.     

The role of experience in six sigma project success: An empirical analysis of improvement projects

Recent learning-by-doing research highlights the importance of examining multiple measures of experience and their relationship to the performance of work teams. Our paper studies the role of individual experience, organizational experience, team leader experience, and experience working together on a team (team familiarity) in the context of improvement teams. To do so, we analyze successful and failed six sigma improvement team projects at a Fortune 500 consumer products manufacturer with multiple business groups. Such improvement project teams focus on deliberate learning, which differs from the primary focus of work teams.Our analysis uses archival data generated by these improvement project teams over a six year time span. Of the four experience variables we study, we find that team leader experience exhibits the strongest relationship with project success, followed by organizational experience. Further, in contrast to prior-related research on work teams, we find no relationship between individual experience or team familiarity and project success beyond that explained by team leader and organizational experience. These results suggest that a well-developed and deployed structured problem-solving process—characteristic of effective six sigma deployments—may reduce the importance of team familiarity in the context of improvement teams.     

More on the emigration of the peasantry

This paper sets out some circumstances in which emigration of some fraction of the population may be harmful to those who are left behind. In elaborating on the recent work of Keith Griffin, we argue that when emigration takes place, non-emigrant income will rise or fall depending upon the proportion of the original endowment of capital emigrants take with them. When pure labour emigrates, in a one-sector model, non-emigrant income must decline. In a two-sector Heckscher-Ohlin framework, the income of non-emigrants may also decline if one of the goods is non-traded.     

Marketing to associations that specify or approve industrial products

This article introduces the concept of indirect marketing. It examines a situation where individuals, groups, and organizations other than the purchasing organization have a major say in the purchase decision. Implications for a marketing program to meet this situation are discussed.     

THE IMPACT OF UNEXPECTED EARNINGS AND DIVIDENDS ON ABNORMAL RETURNS TO EQUITY

This paper contributes to the empirical literature which documents the existence of a positive association between unexpected earnings and/or dividend announcements and abnormal returns to equity. The paper addresses some of the methodological limitations evident in the literature. In particular, one methodological difficulty encountered by previous studies is that since earnings and dividend announcements are usually made contemporaneously it is difficult to assess the marginal effect of either announcement on security returns. This problem is dealt with by constructing portfolios of securities which are randomized with respect to unexpected earnings (dividends), but which are systematically ranked on unexpected dividends (earnings). The results indicate that unexpected earnings announcements have a significant marginal impact on abnormal returns. In addition, there is evidence of an impact of unexpected dividends on returns, but it is weaker than unexpected earnings.     

SEASONALITY IN AUSTRALIAN SHARE PRICE INDICES BETWEEN 1936 AND 1957

There have been a number of Australian studies which have investigated monthly equity return seasonality from 1958 to the mid-1980s. This paper extends the Australian evidence on seasonality by examining equity returns between 1936 and 1957. The major finding of the study is that returns in January are consistently higher than returns in any other month, and that returns in February and June are consistently lower than returns in other months. There is also evidence that returns in July are higher, and in March are lower, than returns in other months. However, it is the January, February and June seasonals which are significant and these remain after taking account of seasonality in ex-dividend days.