Modelling Inflation Volatility

This paper discusses estimation of US inflation volatility using time‐varying parameter models, in particular whether it should be modelled as a stationary or random walk stochastic process. Specifying inflation volatility as an unbounded process, as implied by the random walk, conflicts with priors beliefs, yet a stationary process cannot capture the low‐frequency behaviour commonly observed in estimates of volatility. We therefore propose an alternative model with a change‐point process in the volatility that allows for switches between stationary models to capture changes in the level and dynamics over the past 40 years. To accommodate the stationarity restriction, we develop a new representation that is equivalent to our model but is computationally more efficient. All models produce effectively identical estimates of volatility, but the change‐point model provides more information on the level and persistence of volatility and the probabilities of changes. For example, we find a few well‐defined switches in the volatility process and, interestingly, these switches line up well with economic slowdowns or changes of the Federal Reserve Chair. Moreover, a decomposition of inflation shocks into permanent and transitory components shows that a spike in volatility in the late 2000s was entirely on the transitory side and characterized by a rise above its long‐run mean level during a period of higher persistence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The stop-loss start-gain paradox and option valuation: a new decomposition into intrinsic and time value

The downside risk in a leveraged stock position can be eliminatedby using stop-loss orders. The upside potential of such a positioncan be captured using contingent buy orders. The terminal payoffto this stop-loss start-gain strategy is identical to that ofa call option, but the strategy costs less initially. This articleresolves this paradox by showing that the strategy is not self-financingfor continuous stock-price processes of unbounded variation.The resolution of the paradox leads to a new decomposition ofan option's price into its intrinsic and time value. When thestock price follows geometric Brownian motion, this decompositionis proven to be mathematically equivalent to the Black-Scholes(1973) formula.     

The effect of information releases on the pricing and timing of equity issues

With time-varying adverse selection in the market for new equityissues, firms will prefer to issue equity when the market ismost informed about the quality of the firm. This implies thatequity issues tend to follow credible information releases.In addition, if the asymmetric in information increases overtime between information releases, the price drop at the announcementof an equity issue should increase in the time since the lastinformation release. Using earning releases as a proxy for informativeevents, we find evidence supporting these propositions.     

收购旧设备及更新计划

<正> 南方公司是美国东南部5间受控管制公用电之控股公司,并为美国最大之电力生产商。南方电力是南方公司其中一间附属公司,在世界各地从事电力发展业务。其子公司亚洲电力发展有限公司发展项目遍布中国、菲律宾及亚洲其他地区。南电收购State Line发电设备的项目是更新旧电厂以提高效率、减低烟气排放及延长机组寿命的好例子。     

传统的会计方法会抑制技术革新吗?(下篇)

财务指标在决定一个项目是否应该上马时是十分重要的。但企业需要使用一系列会计和非会计方法来决定如何推进项目。     

An empirical investigation of international asset pricing

We investigate several asset pricing models in an internationalsetting. We use data on a large number of assets traded in theUnited States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and France. The modeltogether with the hypothesis of capital market integration implytestable restrictions on multivariate regressions relating assetreturns to various benchmark portfolios. We find that multifactormodels tend to outperform single-index models in both domesticand international forms especially in their ability to explainseasonality in asset returns. We also find that the behaviorof the models is affected by change in the regulatory environmentin international markets.     

Preferences, continuity, and the arbitrage pricing theory

This article investigates the structure on preferences requiredto derive Ross's arbitrage pricing theory (APT). It is shownthat only ordinal preferences are required. In particular, theAPT does not require that agents possess preferences representableas risk-averse expected utility functions. This characteristicof the APT is not shared by the standard equilibrium-based capitalasset pricing models.     

The uncompromising leader

Managing the tension between performance and people is at the heart of the CEO's job. But CEOs under fierce pressure from capital markets often focus solely on the shareholder, which can lead to employee disenchantment. Others put so much stock in their firms' heritage that they don't notice as their organizations slide into complacency. Some leaders, though, manage to avoid those traps and create high-commitment, high-performance (HCHP) companies. The authors' in-depth research of HCHP CEOs reveals several shared traits: These CEOs earn the trust of their organizations through their openness to the unvarnished truth. They are deeply engaged with their people, and their exchanges are direct and personal. They mobilize employees around a focused agenda, concentrating on only one or two initiatives. And they work to build collective leadership capabilities. These leaders also forge an emotionally resonant shared purpose across their companies. That consists of a three-part promise: The company will help employees build a better world and deliver performance they can be proud of, and will provide an environment in which they can grow. HCHP CEOs approach finding a firm's moral and strategic center in a competitive market as a calling, not an engineering problem. They drive their firms to be strongly market focused while at the same time reinforcing their firms' core values. They are committed to short-term performance while also investing in long-term leadership and organizational capabilities. By refusing to compromise on any of these terms, they build great companies.     

The second fundamental theorem of asset pricing: a new approach

This article presents a new definition of market completenessthat is independent of the notions of no arbitrage and equivalentmartingale measures. Our definition has many advantages, allshown herein. First, it preserves the Second Fundamental Theoremof Asset Pricing, even in complex economies. Second, under ourdefinition, the market can be complete yet arbitrage opportunitiesexist. This is important in practice, and stands in contrastto the traditional definitions. Third, under the assumptionsof no arbitrage and when used in the standard models, our definitionis equivalent to the traditional one.     

Bereitschaftsdienst: Arbeits- oder Ruhezeit?

Streitpunkte im Arbeitszeitgesetz - Immer wieder werfen die Regelungen zum Bereitsschaftsdienst in Kliniken und Pflegeeinrichtungen Fragen auf. Nicht alles, was sich in der Praxis eingebürgert hat, ist rechtlich haltbar. Was ist erlaubt, was nicht?