EXCHANGE RATE FUNDAMENTALS,FORECASTING, AND SPECULATION: BAYESIAN MODELS IN BLACK MARKETS

Although speculative activity is central to black markets for currency, the out‐of‐sample performance of structural models in those settings is unknown. We substantially update the literature on empirical determinants of black market rates and evaluate the out‐of‐sample performance of linear models and non‐parametric Bayesian treed Gaussian process (BTGP) models against the random walk benchmark. Fundamentals‐based models outperform the benchmark in out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy and trading rule profitability measures given future values of fundamentals. In simulated real‐time trading exercises, however, the BTGP achieves superior realized profitability, accuracy and market timing, while linear models do no better than a random walk. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The importance of the firm and destination effects to explain firm performance

An interesting question in tourism management is why tourist firms obtain different performance levels. Firm performance in the tourism industry depends mainly on the destination where the company operates (location or destination effect), and on firm internal resources and characteristics (firm effect). The purpose of this paper is to determine the relative importance of the firm and destination effects using a multilevel approach and hierarchical linear models. The findings show that both effects impact significantly on firm performance, and also that the firm effect is more important than the destination effect. We equally provide some insights about the relationships between these two levels with the aim of building bridges between them.     

Strategic groups and performance in the Spanish hotel sector

This study uses the strategic group theory to identify business strategies and competitive advantages implemented by Spanish hotels, which are grouped together according to three variables (size, chain affiliation, and category) and the degree of development of the different business strategies. An analysis carried out with the aim of checking the potential existence of significant differences in performance among the strategic groups revealed that the highest performance levels are achieved by larger-sized, chain-affiliated, and higher-category hotels as well as by establishments which base their competitive advantage on category and capacity or size and internal management.     

Growth Empirics in Panel Data Under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity

This paper considers panel growth regressions in the presence of model uncertainty and reverse causality concerns. For this purpose, my econometric framework combines Bayesian model averaging with a suitable likelihood function for dynamic panel models with weakly exogenous regressors and fixed effects. An application of this econometric methodology to a panel of countries over the 1960–2000 period highlights the difficulties in identifying the sources of economic growth by means of cross‐country regressions. In particular, none of the nine candidate regressors considered can be labeled as a robust determinant of economic growth. Moreover, the estimated rate of conditional convergence is indistinguishable from zero. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Advertising Media Planning in Spain: Models and Current Usages

Advertising media planning has attracted considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. There is a clear dichotomy between the optimizing and the nonoptimizing approaches. We have reviewed the present state of the art of the mathematical media models. The purpose of this study was to examine the available models for media planning in Spain and to assess their usage. A postal survey was conducted among Spanish advertising agencies whose advertising expenditure in million pesetas was 521,000 in 1988.     

Food Prices,Ethics and Forms of Speculation

Journal of Business Ethics - This paper examines the role of speculative motives in the determination of commodity prices and specifically food related commodity prices. The motivation for this...     

Portfolio choice and equilibrium in capital markets with safety-first investors

This paper develops optimal portfolio choice and market equilibrium when investors behave according to a generalized lexicographic safety-first rule. We show that the mutual fund separation property holds for the optimal portfolio choice of a risk-averse safety-first investor. We also derive an explicit valuation formula for the equilibrium value of assets. The valuation formula reduces to the well-known two-parameter capital asset pricing model (CAPM) when investors approximate the tail of the portfolio distribution using Tchebychev's inequality or when the assets have normal or stable Paretian distributions. This shows the robustness of the CAPM to safety-first investors under traditional distributional assumptions. In addition, we indicate how additional information about the portfolio distribution can be incorporated to the safety-first valuation formula to obtain alternative empirically testable models.     

Managerial practices driving knowledge creation,learning and transfer in translational research: an exploratory case study

Despite its growing popularity in the biomedical literature, the particular phenomenon of translational research management has not been addressed from an organizational and strategic perspective yet. Our study aims to fill this gap by identifying a set of managerial practices that could influence how knowledge is created, amplified and transferred from biomedical research both to clinical practice and the productive sector. As a result of the theoretical review, we have proposed a preliminary model to guide our empirical work. We have developed an exploratory case study to gather organisational information from an outstanding translational research center. The results obtained from the analysis have allowed us to build an induced model of managerial practices that both affect the creation, integration and transfer of knowledge in the translational research organization studied, as well as derives a set of research propositions. Finally, we present the main academic and managerial implications of the work, together with its limitations and related future research lines.