An African fertilizer crisis : Origin and economic effects in the Gambia

In 1985, fertilizer did not arrive in the Gambia in time for the cropping season, since a fertilizer grant was not being properly managed and coordinated. The costs of such policy failure are high. Fertilizer use was down by 64%. In this situation of scarcity, fertilizer use was even more skewed than before towards rich farmers. Output lost was about 10% of agriculture's GDP. Even in normal years in the Gambia, fertilizer use in millet and groundnuts is found far below optimal levels.     

International Capital Flows in the Model with Limited Commitment and Incomplete Markets

Recent literature has proposed two alternative types of financial frictions, i.e., limited commitment and incomplete markets, to explain the empirical patterns of international capital flows between developed and developing countries in the past two decades. This paper integrates these two frictions into a two-country overlapping-generations framework to facilitate a direct comparison of their respective effects. In our model, limited commitment distorts the investment made by agents with different productivity, which creates a wedge between the interest rates on equity capital vs. credit capital; while incomplete markets distort the investment among projects with different riskiness, which creates a wedge between the risk-free rate and the mean rate of return to risky capital. We show that the two approaches are observationally equivalent with respect to their implications for international capital flows, production efficiency, and aggregate output.     

What’s at Stake in Securitising Climate Change? Towards a Differentiated Approach

Climate change has been successfully represented as a security concern to such an extent that it is firmly established on the political agenda, even though the implementation of concrete policies is disputed. In this paper, we develop an analytical framework to better trace the process of securitising climate change and assess its normative implications. We establish a typology of six climate security discourses on the basis of two dimensions: three levels of referent objects and two logics of securitisation, one that corresponds to the original Copenhagen School framework and one where the threat takes the form of the invocation of risk. We find that there are significant differences in the relative importance of the resulting climate security discourses in Germany and the US, but that normatively, all discourses come with their own problems, which calls for more detailed scrutiny and assessment of climate security discourses and their political effects.     

Deunionization and job polarization – a macroeconomic model analysis for a small open economy

Declining unionization rates and job polarization are two important labor market developments of recent decades. A large body of literature has analyzed these phenomena separately, but little has been done to see whether there is a link between them. We employ a macroeconomic model for a small open economy with a large input–output core to analyze how deunionization may cause job polarization. Our analysis shows that medium-skilled workers are negatively affected by deunionization, mainly as a result of the heterogeneity of the elasticities of substitution between different types of labor. While the elasticities of substitution between high- and medium-skilled labor are relatively low, the elasticities of substitution between medium- and low-skilled are relatively high. As a result, when deunionization leads to increased wage dispersion, we find that demand for low-skilled increases at the expense of medium-skilled labor, thus yielding a more polarized labor market.     

Serial Nonparticipation in Repeated Discrete Choice Models

We consider alternative econometric strategies for addressing serial nonparticipation, that is, repeated choice of the same alternative or same type of alternative across a series of choice occasions, in data typically analyzed within the repeated discrete choice framework. Single and double hurdle variants of the repeated discrete choice model are developed and applied to choice experiment and multisite seasonal recreation demand data. Our results suggest that hurdle models can generate significant improvements in statistical fit and qualitatively different policy implications, particularly in choice experiment applications where the proper treatment of serial nonparticipation is relatively more ambiguous.