The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses About the Asian Crisis

Various claims have been made about the causes of the Asian crisis and its spread. Here, we use data on the behaviour of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses, that portfolio investors and hedge funds played a dominant role in initiating and/or spreading the crisis; that moral hazard kept efficient markets from predicting the crisis; and, finally, the common lender hypothesis of Kaminsky and Reinhart. In the process we also test implications of the Calvo-Mendoza model of rational investor ignorance. All are falsified as monocausal explanations. For example, portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into Asia until very shortly before the crisis. Likewise, banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors. While falsified in their strongest forms, several of these hypotheses in less strong forms should play a role in a more nuanced analysis. It is necessary to move past simple single-factor approaches in order to produce a more complete, synthetic explanation of this episode.     

Risk Management by Securities Settlement Agents

As developing countries search for ways to promote capital formation through the establishment of organized exchanges, they will need to pay more attention to the role of risk management in the securities settlement process. The delivery-versus-payment (DVP) agents that facilitate the process of exchanging securities for funds in most world markets have both the incentive and comparative informational advantage to monitor, measure, and manage risks inherent in the securities settlement system.
Unfortunately, most DVP agents have accomplished this task to date through the cumbersome use of position and net debit limits, capital requirements, and collateral requirements. Such limits and requirements are almost everywhere based on relatively arbitrary criteria that may have no relation to the actual replacement cost, principal, or liquidity risk of the transaction, portfolio, or participant on which they are imposed.
To remedy this shortcoming in the current state of risk management at DVP agents, this article holds out the possibility of integrated, comprehensive risk management processes that emphasize and rely on forward-looking measures of risk for individual brokers and across brokers. Many risk measures could serve the settlement agent's purposes, including "value at risk" (or "VaR"), "below target risk,""below-target probability," and "downside semi-variance." The actual summary risk measure used for risk monitoring and control is not as important as the methodology used to generate that risk measure. "The goal of such a process," as the authors put it, "is to ensure that the risks to which a settlement agent and its residual claimants are exposed are those risks to which the agent's shareholders think they are and want to be exposed."     

Human capital composition, growth and development: an R&D growth model versus data

The effect of human capital composition on growth and development has been somewhat neglected in economic literature. However, evidence has suggested the importance of engineering and technical (high-tech) skills to economic growth, and international organizations have suggested their shortage in developed countries. Using a standard increasing variety growth model, we propose various measures of human capital composition that are related with economic growth and development. When compared to data, the model does well in explaining the rate of growth and the level of development as a function of these measures. “the British colonies had a better educated population (...). Education was secular with emphasis on pragmatic skills and yankee ingenuity (...). The 13 British colonies had nine universities in 1776 for 2.5 million people. New Spain, with 5 million, had only two universities (...) which concentrated on theology and law.” –(Maddison, 2001)     

Analysing job creation effects of scaling up infrastructure spending in South Africa

In a first for South Africa, this article draws on literature on infrastructure productivity to model dynamic economy-wide employment impacts of infrastructure investment funded with different fiscal tools. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, the South African investment plan is modelled, given the infrastructure externality. Alternative fiscal scenarios to finance the policy are modelled in the article. In the long run, unemployment decreases for all types of workers under one of the scenarios. In the short run, only elementary occupation workers benefit from a decrease in unemployment; for the rest, unemployment rises.     

Learning CAD at university through summaries of the rules of design intent

The ease with which 3D CAD models may be modified and reused are two key aspects that improve the design-intent variable and that can significantly shorten the development timelines of a product. A set of rules are gathered from various authors that take different 3D modelling strategies into account. These rules are then applied to CAD strategic-knowledge learning methodology and included in 3D CAD modelling exercises for students following the degree in mechanical engineering at the University of Burgos (Spain). The experiment was conducted in two groups with a total of 75 students. The design-intent rules were introduced in the different exercises that the teacher explained in both the theoretical and the practical classes. In addition, a summary of the different design rules in each of the practical exercises was explained in the practical classes in only one of the groups. The experimental results, reported in this paper, tested the influence of these summaries on overall improvements in 3D modelling and on the design-intent variable, which is subdivided into four sections: skeleton, structures, alterations and constraints. The use of the summaries of the design intent rules led to statistically significant improvements in 3D modelling in the experimental group, in comparison with the group of students to whom those summaries were not explained.     

Social assistance and dignity: South African women's experiences of the child support grant

Many women interact with the South African social security system in relation to the Child Support Grant (CSG), which is social assistance payable for children living with low-income caregivers. This paper explores women's accounts of how the CSG serves to protect and respect dignity, a foundational value in the South African Constitution. Drawing from focus groups and in-depth interviews with female CSG recipients of working age, it is argued that whilst the experience of using the CSG does protect dignity in certain important respects, other aspects including the application process, the small amount of the grant and negative discourses associated with the status of being a CSG recipient were experienced by many as erosive of dignity.     

The impact of network configurations on value constellations in business markets — The case of an innovation network

A growing body of scholars are advocating a better understanding of how value is created in business networks, rather than merely in business relationships or at the level of single actors. Among such networks, innovation networks, i.e. the configurations of strategic entrepreneurial nets aimed at improving the effectiveness of innovation performance, have come under scrutiny in the business marketing literature. However, research that explicitly connects value considerations with innovation network configurations is still in its infancy, with empirical evidence being notably scarce. This study is aimed at identifying if and how network configurations affect value constellation aspects in business networks, in terms of value recipients and value outcomes. We interviewed key informants representing 46 high-technology entrepreneurial firms co-located in an innovation network (Daresbury Science and Technology Park — UK). Our study identifies that different network configurations can co-exist in the same overall network; these, nevertheless, are not alternative independent structures, but rather they interact with each other through actors spanning their boundaries. Our study thus provides an understanding of network configurations relating to specific value consequences, but also provides evidence relating to the interactions between different configurations. By doing this, we establish a bridge between a business marketing and a strategy perspective on value in networks. Important managerial implications and implications for policy makers also emerge from our study.     

The relationship of perception of time and attributes of leisure in daily experiences

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between perceived passage of time (slowly versus quickly) and perceived freedom, enjoyment, interest and subjective meaning of leisure in daily experiences of married couples. Eleven college-age married couples participated in this study. Data were collected using experience sampling method that produced a total of 650 self-reports. Couples were signalled at random five times a day for one week. Using logistic regression results suggest that some leisure attributes are more relevant in influencing perception of passage of time in husbands' and wives' daily experiences.     

Income and religion: a heterogeneous panel data analysis

A recent empirical literature has addressed the relationship between income and religion, but most of the studies are based on microdata. Macroeconomic analysis of the issue has largely ignored the potential heterogeneity between countries. Using retrospective data on church attendance rates for a panel of countries between 1925 and 1990, we apply heterogeneous panel data estimators and reveal that the effect of participation in religious activities on income per capita is mostly non-significant. This is consistent with some of the recent research that casts doubt onto the influence of religion on income, once causality is taken into account.