Social Learning in Beauty‐Contest Games

We study the impact of social learning on the depth of reasoning in an experimental beauty‐contest game. Naive advice and observation of others' decisions as two forms of social learning trigger faster convergence to the equilibrium. We find that subjects who receive advice outperform uninformed subjects permanently, whereas subjects who observe others' past behavior before making their decision only have a temporary advantage over uninformed subjects. A series of control‐treatments and simulations indicate that the latter result is due to subjects failing to make the most out of observing others.     

Marcos M. López de Prado: Machine learning for asset managers

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management -     

PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies

This paper asks whether rating agencies played a passive role or were an active driving force during Europe??s sovereign debt crisis. We address this by estimating relationships between sovereign debt ratings and macroeconomic and structural variables. We then use these equations to decompose actual ratings into systematic and arbitrary components that are not explained by previously observed procedures of rating agencies. Finally, we check whether systematic, as well as arbitrary, parts of credit ratings affect credit spreads. We find that both do affect credit spreads, which opens the possibility that arbitrary rating downgrades trigger processes of self-fulfilling prophecies that may drive even relatively healthy countries towards default.     

Granularity of Services

Service-oriented architectures are widely discussed as a design principle for application and enterprise architectures. Nevertheless, an adequate granularity of services has not yet been researched sufficiently from an economic perspective. The finer the granularity to realize the functions of a process, the higher the number of services is, and the more effort has to be directed towards composing them. In contrast, very coarse-grained services bear the disadvantages of higher implementation costs and lower reuse potential (e.g., in different processes). The aim of the decision model proposed in this paper is to determine an adequate granularity of services from an economical perspective. Thus, degrees of freedom, which often exist for the choice of granularity after a domain analysis, can be leveraged to realize a cost-efficient solution. We illustrate the applicability and practical benefits of the decision model with an example from the context of a financial services provider.     

The Heckscher–Ohlin model and the network structure of international trade

This paper estimates for 28 product groups a characteristic parameter that reflects the topological structure of its trading network. Using these estimates, it describes how the structure of international trade has evolved during the 1980–2000 period. Thereafter, it demonstrates the importance of networks in international trade by explicitly accounting for their scaling properties when testing the prediction of the “Heckscher–Ohlin” model that factor endowment differentials determine bilateral trade flows. The results suggest that factor endowment differentials increase bilateral trade in goods that are traded in “dispersed” networks. For goods traded in “concentrated” networks, factor endowment differentials are less important.     

Non-cooperative exploitation of multi-cohort fisheries—The role of gear selectivity in the North-East Arctic cod fishery

North-East Arctic cod is shared by Russia and Norway. Taking its multi-cohort structure into account, how would optimal management look like? How would non-cooperative exploitation limit the obtainable profits? To which extent could the strategic situation explain today’s over-harvesting? Simulation of a detailed bio-economic model reveals that the mesh size should be significantly increased, resulting not only in a doubling of economic gains, but also in a biologically healthier age-structure of the stock. The Nash equilibrium is close to the current regime. Even when effort is fixed to its optimal level, the non-cooperative choice of gear selectivity leads to a large dissipation of rents.     

Aid Delivery through Non‐governmental Organisations: Does the Aid Channel Matter for the Targeting of Swedish Aid?

This paper analyses whether aid channelled through non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) is less affected by selfish donor motivations and better targeted to needy recipient countries than aid distributed by state agencies. We employ Tobit (and Probit) models and make use of an exceptionally detailed database that allows an assessment of the allocation of Swedish aid channelled through NGOs in comparison to the allocation of Swedish official aid. Our analysis provides mixed results. On the one hand, NGOs appear to be altruistic as far as available indicators on political and commercial motivations of aid can tell. On the other hand, needs‐based targeting of aid by NGOs turns out to be surprisingly weak. GDP per capita of recipient countries shapes the allocation of official aid, but not that of aid channelled through NGOs. The headcount of absolute poverty has a significantly positive effect on aid allocation, but its impact is not particularly strong when NGOs are involved. Overall, the Swedish case supports the sceptical view that NGOs are not necessarily superior donors compared to state aid agencies.     

Richard H. Thaler — Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträger 2017

Richard H. Thaler was awarded this year’s Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel “for his contributions to behavioural economics”. He studied systematic departures of human behaviour from the standard “homo oeconomicus” assumption. His famous work on boundedly rational behaviour considers both cognitive limitations and limited self-control. The cognitive limitations he studied are in particular the endowment effect, i.e. the observation that individuals assign a higher value to an object if they possess it, and mental accounting, a collection of theories regarding how individuals think about money. Furthermore, he provided path-breaking evidence on the nature of social preferences, which laid the groundwork for the development of several widely used economic theories incorporating altruism, fairness and reciprocity.