The Distribution of Multifamily Mortgage Originations: What We Know and Why We Care

Three policy-relevant questions about multifamily mortgage originations (MFOs) are addressed. First, what is the annual volume of MFOs? This analysis highlights differences and problems among three publicly available multifamily lending surveys; the 1993 volume is estimated at $30 billion. Second, what is the size distribution of multifamily mortgages? Using kernel density estimation, variation in this distribution among central cities and suburbs, underserved areas, and lender type is examined. Third, what are the primary determinants of the variation in multifamily lending? A relatively simple regression model is estimated to shed light on the variables most highly correlated with multifamily lending. Tract income relative to MSA median income and minority concentrations are shown to be highly correlated with lending volume, but the largest source of variation is the number of multifamily rental units in the tract.     

Regulatory Capital Arbitrage and the Potential Competitive Impact of Basel II in the Market for Residential Mortgages

U.S. banking regulators have proposed a bifurcated system of capital regulation where the largest, internationally active banking organizations would be subject to significantly more risk sensitive regulatory capital requirements than are currently in place, while most others would remain subject to the current rules. The proposed new capital regime has the potential to affect the competitive landscape among banking institutions, particularly in the area of residential mortgage lending. We analyze the potential competitive effects of the proposed, bifurcated regulatory capital system on competition in the residential mortgage market from the perspective of the theory of regulatory capital arbitrage. We then apply the theory and available evidence to perform some benchmark calculations that suggest a significant, potential shift of market share and income to the largest banking institutions in the mortgage market.

Research Applications of the Multifamily Housing Institute's Apartment Database

Data on the financial performance of multifamily rental housing has not been available nearly as long as such information for single-family housing. It is believed that this lack of information has increased the cost of debt and equity capital to apartment housing and thus has increased the rents paid by apartment residents. Data on apartments, which is now becoming available through an industry-sponsored initiative, has the potential of narrowing this information gap. This article has several objectives: to describe this new database, AptData^TM, to housing researchers to assess the strengths and weaknesses of AptData^TM for housing market and policy research, to compare estimates from AptData^TM with those from other sources, and to offer several potential research applications of this new data resource.     

Homeownership Effects of Alternative Mortgage Instruments*

Most of the interest in alternatives to the standard mortgage instrument has centered on the ability of the alternatives to improve on the performance of the mortgage instrument over the business cycle. The focus in this paper is on the long-term effects on homeownership rates and associated additional residential construction. The instruments are found to offer potentially large increases in homeownership rates by reducing monthly mortgage payments. Widespread adoption of those instruments causing larger payment reductions would allow around one million more households to become owner-occupants. The demand for new single-family homes would increase over the long run by 3 to 4 percent a year. Homeownership could be further increased by a time-limited subsidy directed at moderate income families.     

Tax-Induced Portfolio Reshuffling: The Case of the Mortgage Interest Deduction

Several provisions of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 had an indirect impact upon the demand for home mortgage debt. These include the elimination of the deductibility of interest on consumer credit, the increase in the standard deduction, and the reduction in the number of expenses that can be itemized. These provisions and the 1983–1989 panel sample of the Survey of Consumer Finances provide an opportunity to study the responsiveness of the demand for home mortgage debt to its tax status relative to the tax treatment of equity-financed investments in housing and consumer credit. The results are strongly supportive of a highly elastic demand for mortgage debt with respect to its tax price. The best point estimate of this elasticity is –1, but substantial variation is found among certain groups. More generally, the results provide strong support for the phenomenon of portfolio reshuffling.     

Constructing Indices of the Price of Multifamily Properties Using the 1991 Residential Finance Survey

Indices of the price of constant-quality, owner-occupied single-family housing are widely available and have been instrumental in learning about the operations of the market for owner-occupied housing. Such is not the case for multifamily rental housing. The purpose of this article is to provide information about movements in the price of multifamily properties during the 1980s and early 1990s using the 1991 Residential Finance Survey (RFS). Several conclusions are drawn from the development and analysis of indices of the price of multifamily housing for the nation and four large states (California, Florida, New York, and Texas). First, indices for the period 1983--1991 generate similar patterns among the various methods employed; furthermore, movements in the index during the period 1983--1991 seem reasonable. Second, much regional variation exists. Prices in Texas were particularly hard hit, falling by over 25% in nominal terms between 1983 and 1991. Third, the impact of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 does not appear to have been as dramatic as some have suggested. Indeed, price declines do not show up in either the 1986 or 1987 indices for the nation, California, or New York.     

The demand for housing in developing countries: The case of Korea

This paper presents the results of an analysis of urban housing demand for Korea taking into account the most recent findings of housing demand analysis concerning specification and aggregation biases. In order to obtain correctly specified demand functions, a procedure based on a model of the housing market originally proposed by Muth is used. Drawing on the detailed land information available in Korea, this procedure permits the calculation of an individual price per unit of housing services for each household. The results show conclusively that both the income and price elasticity of the demand for housing services in Korea are comparable to those found in the United States: the income elasticity is smaller than one and the price elasticity is negative and smaller than one in absolute value. Given the number of countries found within the per capita income range between Korea ($700) and the United States ($7800), the finding that these two countries have comparable demand elasticities is of major significance: in the absence of good national estimates, the order of magnitudes found here would be used for other country analyses.     

Economics of residential crowding in developing countries

In an attempt to eliminate residential crowding, most countries pursue the policy objective of providing one dwelling unit per household. However, we know little about the demand for various dimensions of housing space which affects the levels of crowding. This paper analyzes the nature of demand for residential space and multiple occupancy in order to identify the major determinants of crowding. The result indicates that to a great extent crowding is explained by economic factors and that the current policy approach to elimination of crowding, which emphasizes one dwelling per household, is not likely to be effective.     

Inflation, tax advantages to homeownership and the locational choices of households

The U.S. tax system encourages investment in owner-occupied housing by allowing consumers to deduct mortgage interest and to exclude net imputed rental income from taxable income. The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze how this tax treatment affects the housing and locational choices of urban households. It is shown that the effect of the tax treatment on these choices is sensitive to the preferences of consumers and the rate of anticipated inflation. To illustrate the likely size and direction of these effects, an example is constructed based upon econometric estimates of the parameters of the model.