Simulation study of a closed-loop job shop

This study investigates the behavior of a job shop depicted as an integral component of a firm. A market places demands for the firm's products by dynamically evaluating the organization's quoted delivery times and actual delivery performance. The closed-loop model simulated in this study is described and the salient research results are reported. These experimental outcomes suggest that other conventional open-loop job shop studies tend to neglect important interactions with factors external to the shop itself.     

Which past returns affect trading volume?

Anecdotal evidence suggests and recent theoretical models argue that past stock returns affect subsequent stock trading volume. We study 3,000 individual investors over a 51 month period to test this apparent link between past returns and volume using several different panel regression models (linear panel regressions, negative binomial panel regressions, Tobit panel regressions). We find that both past market returns as well as past portfolio returns affect trading activity of individual investors (as measured by stock portfolio turnover, the number of stock transactions, and the propensity to trade stocks in a given month). After high portfolio returns, investors buy high risk stocks and reduce the number of stocks in their portfolio. High past market returns do not lead to higher risk taking or underdiversification. We argue that the only explanations for our findings are overconfidence theories based on biased self-attribution and differences of opinion explanations for high levels of trading activity.     

Gemeinkostencontrolling bei interdependenten Leistungstransfers auf Basis von ?QUATTRO“?

Probleme des Gemeinkostencontrolling bzw. des Kostenstellencontrolling werden in der Literatur überwiegend in Form jeweils isolierter Ist-Sollvergleiche und Abweichungsanalysen unter Bezugnahme auf die Prim?rkosten behandelt.     

Guidelines for commercial negotiators

Most negotiators would be happy to sharpen and refine their bargaining skills. The following points, drawn from practical experience, can help them do so.     

Framing Effects in Stock Market Forecasts: The Difference Between Asking for Prices and Asking for Returns

Studies analyzing return expectations of financial market participantslike fund managers, CFOs or individual investors are highlyinfluential in academia and practice. We argue and show thatthe results in these surveys above are easily influenced bythe elicitation mode of return expectations. Surveys that askfor future stock price levels are more likely to produce meanreverting expectations than surveys that directly ask for futurereturns. Furthermore, we conduct a questionnaire study thatexplicitly analyzes whether the specific elicitation mode affectsreturn expectations in the above direction. In our study, subjectswere asked to state mean forecasts for seven time series. Usinga between subject design, one half of the subjects was askedto state future price levels, the other group was directly askedfor returns. We observe a highly significant framing effect.For upward sloping time series, the return forecasts statedby investors in the return forecast mode are significantly higherthan those derived for investors in the price forecast mode.For downward sloping time series, the return forecasts givenby investors in the return forecast mode are significantly lowerthan those derived for investors in the price forecast mode.We argue that this finding is consistent with behavioral theoriesof investor expectation formation based on the representativenessheuristic.     

Solar energy—An alternative source for power generation

Diminishing fossil fuel resources, and the serious doubts involved with nuclear power production, demand an unexploited and non-polluting power source. Advances in space technology and research have provided an answer-solar energy conversion. The technical and scientific possibilities of satellite conversion systems are outlined and evaluated.     

Is the diversification discount caused by the book value bias of debt?

We analyze whether the diversification discount is driven by the book value bias of corporate debt. Book values of debt may be a more downward biased proxy of the market value of debt for diversified firms, relative to undiversified firms, as diversification leads to lower firm risk. Thus, measures of firm value based on book values of debt undervalue diversified firms relative to focused firms. Our paper complements recent literature which uses market values to test the risk reduction hypothesis for a subsample of firms for which debt is traded. Alternatively, we employ market value of debt estimates for the whole firm universe. Consistent with the above hypothesis, we show that the use of book values of debt underestimates the value of diversified firms. There is no discount for mainly equity financed firms and lower distress risk and equity volatility for diversified firms. More concentrated ownership increases firm valuation.     

Interoperability: the key to breaking down information silos in health care

In health care, interoperability--the ability of healthcare information systems to work together and share information within and across organizational boundaries--involves: Data exchange, Infrastructure interoperability, User interface interoperability, Process interoperability.     

September 11 and Stock Return Expectations of Individual Investors

This study uses data that offers the unique opportunity to analyze how an unprecedented crisis such as the September 11 tragedy influences expected returns and volatility forecasts of individual investors. Via e-mail, we asked a randomly selected group of individual investors with accounts at a German online broker to answer an internet questionnaire at the beginning of August 2001. A second e-mail to the investors who had not yet answered, scheduled five weeks later, was postponed due to the terror attacks until September 20, which was exactly the day with the lowest share prices in Germany in the year 2001. Based on the answers to questions concerning stock market predictions, we find that return forecasts of the investors in our sample are significantly higher after September 11, suggesting a belief in mean reversion. Our results show that investors interpret the large drop in share prices during the ten day period after September 11 mainly as temporary rather than permanent. After the terror attacks, volatility forecasts are higher than before September 11. In two out of four cases, historical volatilities are overestimated. Therefore, investors are not generally overconfident in the way that they underestimate the variance of stock returns. Differences of opinion with regard to return forecasts are lower after the terror attacks whereas differences of opinion concerning volatility forecasts are mainly unaffected.We would like to thank William Goetzmann (the editor), Alexander Klos, Markus Nöth, Jens Reynders, Zacharias Sautner, an anonymous referee, several faculty members of the Fuqua School of Business, and seminar participants at the University of Mannheim for valuable comments and insights. Parts of this paper were written while Markus Glaser was visiting the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, North Carolina, USA, whose support is gratefully acknowledged. Financial Support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) is also gratefully acknowledged.