AGRICULTURAL POLICY AT THE CROSSROADS—AGAIN

American agriculture is suffering from severe structural adjustments and from its worst financial depression since landmark price and income policies were legislated more than half a century ago. As much as one-third of the $220 billion in agricultural debt is now delinquent, nonaccrual, or subject to renegotiation. Land values have fallen precipitously in the past few years. Farm foreclosures are near 1930 Depression levels. The congressional debate over programs that could determine the course of U.S. agriculture for the remainder of the century began in the summer of 1985.     

CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION, U.S. MONEY DEMAND, AND INTERNATIONAL INTERDEPENDENCE

A number of writers have argued in recent years that massive international currency substitution has been a major cause of exchange rate volatility and monetary instability in the United States and other major countries. Such analysis is frequently coupled with recommendations for a return to pegged exchange rates. This paper critically examines the evidence presented for this currency substitution view. It argues that the weight of latest research suggests that direct international currency substitution has not been of major quantitative importance for the U.S. However, empirical evidence supports traditional views that international capital mobility can generate substantial short-run monetary interdependence even under flexible exchange rates. Thus, even though international currency substitution is of little importance to U.S. monetary conditions, a broader range of international considerations may be of considerable importance for the U.S. economy.     

In or out? explaining state shares of the tobacco Master Settlement Agreement

In 1998, 46 states were involved in a Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) with the tobacco industry. The other four states settled on their own. Our goal is to answer a counter factual question: how would these four states have fared had they been included in the MSA? We use data from Viscusi (2002 Viscusi WK (2002) Smoke‐Filled Rooms Chicago University of Chicago Press  [Google Scholar]) to explain settlement shares for states participating in the 1998 tobacco MSA, and to predict settlement shares for the four nonparticipating states. We find that two nonparticipating states (Minnesota and Mississippi) may have fared substantially worse had they been included in the MSA.     

DETERMINING WHETHER DUMPED OR SUBSIDIZED IMPORTS INJURE DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES: INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION APPROACH

This paper examines the "traditional approach" that the US. International Trade Commission (ITC) has used during recent years to decide whether dumped or subsidized imports cause material injury to a domestic industry. ITC decisions are perceived as not explaining clearly why the conclusions reached follow from the facts presented. Using a survey of recent ITC decisions, the authors attempt to discover the assumptions and methods of analysis lying behind traditional analysis so that readers may more fully understand ITC opinions. The authors argue that the major components of the traditional approach are special applications of ordinary demand-supply analysis.     

Endogenous Borrowing Constraints With Incomplete Markets

This article develops ways to endogenize the borrowing constraints used in a class of computable incomplete markets models. We allow the constraints to depend on an investor's characteristics such as time preference, risk aversion, and income streams. The proposed constraint can be interpreted as a borrowing limit within which an investor has no incentive to default. Using a numerical algorithm, we find that for an array of structural parameters, the endogenous borrowing constraints can be much less stringent than the ad hoc borrowing constraints adopted by the existing studies.     

Trading Halts and Market Activity: An Analysis of Volume at the Open and the Close

This paper analyzes how the daily opening and closing of financial markets affect trading volume. We model the desire to trade at the beginning and end of the day as a function of overnight return volatility. NYSE data from 1933–88 indicate that closing volume is positively related to expected overnight volatility, while volume at the open is positively related to both expected and unexpected volatility from the previous night. We interpret the symmetric response of trading at the open and the close to expected volatility as being due to investor heterogeneities in the ability to bear risk when the market is closed. This desire of investors to trade prior to market closings indicates a cost of mandating marketwide circuit breakers.