Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

This paper uses a tractable macroeconomic model with idiosyncratic human capital risk and incomplete markets to analyze the growth and welfare effects of business cycles. The analysis is based on the assumption that the elimination of business cycles eliminates the variation in idiosyncratic risk. The paper shows that a reduction in the variation in idiosyncratic risk decreases the ratio of physical to human capital and increases the total investment return and welfare. If the degree of risk aversion is less than or equal to one, then economic growth is enhanced. This paper also provides a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of business cycles based on a calibrated version of the model. Even for relatively small degrees of risk aversion (around one) the model implies that the elimination of business cycles has substantial effects on investment in physical and human capital, economic growth, and welfare.     

When do managers listen to the market? Impact of learning in acquisitions of private firms

We study the influence of market signals and agency problems on the decision to cancel an announced acquisition. We find major differences between deals involving private vs. public targets. First, controlling for the value of expected synergies, acquisitions are less likely to be cancelled when the target is private rather than public. This finding supports learning rather than the alternative common-information hypothesis. Second, better manager-shareholder interest alignment makes the cancellation of a “bad” deal more likely only when the target is a private firm. This suggests bidder agency problems have a greater influence on acquisition outcome (i.e., learning) when the target is private. Third, cancellation is more likely for private targets when their post-announcement abnormal returns are low, especially if the method of payment includes stock. This indicates that it is important to control for bidder overvaluation when testing the managerial learning hypothesis. Overall, both the learning and agency hypotheses help explain observed differences in deal completion by target type.     

The Valuation Effect of Accounting Standard 158 on Firms with High and Low Financial Risk

SFAS 158 mandated balance sheet disclosure of the funded status of firms’ Defined Benefit Pension Plan using the Projected Benefit Obligation (PBO) to estimate the pension liability. SFAS 158 caused a market phenomenon because the use of the PBO engendered dramatically higher estimates of pension liability and hence the perception of risk. Our work focuses on two aspects of this change in pension accounting: first, how will industry firms change their accounting strategy in light of the new rules, and second, how will firms’ stock prices be affected by the new allegedly better estimate of pension liability? Our research suggests that firms’ accounting strategies changed in that they use higher discount rates to estimate pension liability which offset the dramatic impact of using the PBO. In addition, we find that high financial risk firms’ tendencies to use higher discount rates increase with the firms’ leverage and decrease with liquidity. To test the market reaction we utilize standard event study methodology to investigate the effects of SFAS 158 on stock returns. Our findings suggest that firms with high (low) financial risk earn negative (positive) abnormal returns on and around relevant event dates preceding the implementation of SFAS 158.     

I. Neuerscheinungen versicherungswissenschaftlicher Bücher 2000/01 (Stand: 30. September 2001)

Schrifttum

I. Neuerscheinungen versicherungswissenschaftlicher Bücher 2000/01 (Stand: 30. September 2001)     

Consumer Reactions to Corporate Tax Strategies: Effects on Corporate Reputation and Purchasing Behavior

On the basis of an interdisciplinary approach linking taxation, marketing, and corporate social responsibility, the present research investigates the effects of media reports on aggressive and responsible corporate tax strategies (CTSs) on corporate success with consumers. By means of two laboratory experiments (N = 150, 360), we analyze the effects of the CTSs on corporate reputation, consumer purchase intention, and the consumer’s willingness to pay. Our results suggest that aggressive CTSs diminish corporate success with consumers, whereas responsible CTSs enhance it. Nevertheless, consumers are not willing to pay a price premium for products sold by responsible tax-planning companies, but rather punish aggressive tax-planning companies through a slightly lower willingness to pay. Finally, consumers’ tax morale and their attitude toward tax avoidance are important moderating variables. Given the growing level of media interest in taxation, our findings are crucial for assessing consumer-related non-tax costs and the benefits of different CTSs.     

Risks Matrixes Risks Assessment Tools of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises： The Case of Latvia

The enterprises need to assess the risk dynamic of financial instability and its impact on small and medium-sized enterprises＇ development, because it is important for enterprises to extend commercial activity and to open a new structural subdivision. We have researched types of risks, their identification, classification, and assessment possibilities in activities of small and medium-sized enterprises. We have used our own algorithm of identification, classification, and assessment of enterprises＇ risks. The goal of this research is to study the economic and financial risks＇ impact on small and medium-sized enterprises＇ development in Latvia. For study purpose, we have carried out the questionnaire of representative small and medium-sized enterprises about the economic and financial risks＇ impact on enterprises＇ development in Latvia. We have created classification of Latvian services sectors＇ economic and financial risks in the period from 2011 to 2012. Those risks have been included in the questionnaire. The risks matrix is a quantitative assessment tool of risks. We have created Latvian service sector economic and financial risks matrix. We have arranged risks by their sizes of possible losses for enterprises. For each risk has been assessed its probability of realization. We have created Latvian accommodations （hotel） and food services technological process risks map. Several parts of the risk map （segments） make it possible to assess each type of the risk separately in its segment. Risks matrix can be used to choose enterprises＇ strategy of risk management. Enterprise＇s strategy of risk management is developed by analysing zones of risk level.