A reappraisal of the forecasting performance of corn and soybean new crop futures

Forecasting performance of December corn and November soybean futures contracts during the previous spring was evaluated using the commonly specified price-level and percent-change models. These models invoke different assumptions regarding stationarity. Using Stein's analytical framework, results for the price-level model suggest avoidable social loss existed in the soybean market since 1973, because November futures provided biased forecasts. Regression R²s for both corn and soybeans declined substantially between 1952–1972 and 1973–1997, suggesting total social loss increased. By contrast, results from the percent-change model suggest only unavoidable social loss existed in the corn and soybean markets, because the futures provided unbiased forecasts. R² increased for corn but declined for soybeans, suggesting unavoidable social loss declined for corn, but increased for soybeans. The important, conflicting nature of the results from the two models underscores the importance of examining alternative model specifications when evaluating price forecasting performance. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 604–618, 1999     

Coasean bargaining with symmetric delay costs

Delay costs play a role in Coasean bargaining over environmental conflicts when an injunction restricts actions until a settlement is reached. Results from the lab suggest that efficiency remained relatively robust to discrete and increasing marginal delay costs, but declined significantly with nonincreasing marginal delay costs. Bargainers appear to deal with probability and consequences separately rather than in combination as maintained by expected utility theory, and as such, neglect ends over means. How the distribution of wealth is best organized depends on perspective: constrained self-interest best organizes behavior if expected utility is maintained; pure self-interest dominates if we acknowledge the probability–consequence heuristic.     

论电子商务中的物流方案

以电子商务技术来优化提升中国传统物流业,使它能够较好地突破目前制约中国物流业发展的最大弊端———条块分割,但如何将传统的物流业与电子商务联在一起还是个难题。文章从电子商务对流通业的影响出发,分析了电子物流方案中碰到的问题,提出了解决的方案。     

混合型组织生成的范式解构:创生式与转化式的多向演绎

组织可持续发展导向下越来越多的组织通过寻求跨组织边界、跨价值边界以及跨利益相关方边界实现多重混合,折中主义下的混合型组织受到学界广泛关注,但学界对混合型组织如何生成缺乏理论范式解构,对混合型组织构建方式与实现路径依然相对模糊.混合型组织的定义视角尚未统一,主要包括交易成本、公共管理、组织使命、制度逻辑和组织价值五种视角,多重视角下能够抽取出目标多重性、利益相关方的多维性、绩效衡量的综合性、价值创造的多元性与共享性以及组织边界的弱稳定性等五个主要特征.混合型组织的清晰分类是实现混合型组织生成的重要前提,在组织光谱模型、动物园模型以及福利三角模型等混合型组织分类模型的基础上,进一步基于\"生成方式—生成机制—混合度\"的组合构思出混合型组织生成的范式全景,提出创生式与转化式下混合型组织的11条生成路径.文章为解构混合型组织的多重生成轨迹提供了理论基础,也为组织可持续成长提供实践参考.     

A Moral Cleansing Process: How and When Does Unethical Pro-organizational Behavior Increase Prohibitive and Promotive Voice

Journal of Business Ethics - In this study, we draw on moral cleansing theory to investigate the consequence of unethical pro-organizational behavior (UPB) from the perspective of the actors....     

投资者法律保护与财务报告质量

企业财务报告的质量取决于资本市场上会计信息需求方和供给方之间的博弈,投资者法律保护通过影响资本市场的发展,进而影响需求方和供给方之间的力量对比,使作为会计信息载体的财务报告呈现出不同的质量特征。     

加拿大政府投资计划管理的主要经验及借鉴

加拿大安大略省在政府投资公共设施的管理方面,注重构建科学的计划体系,长中短期规划计划相衔接,体现“以人为本”,注重区域间的均衡协调发展,政府职能部门和社会中介机构形成合力,共同加强对政府投资项目的计划和管理;投融资模式灵活多样,最大限度地提高资金使用效率。这些经验对深圳市加强政府投资管理,形成科学的决策机制,发挥政府投资效益具有较好的借鉴作用。     

旅游企业开展网络营销存在的问题和对策——以温州为例研究

旅游网络营销已经成为当前旅游业发展的趋势,旅游业通过与现代信息技术的融合,可以提升旅游目的地的知名度,提高旅游企业的营销效率,降低成本,为旅游企业创造效益。通过分析研究温州旅游企业开展网络营销存在的问题,温州旅游企业应尽快转变旅游营销观念,充分运用现代网络营销技术,改进网络营销手段,并积极开发建设温州旅游电子商务平台,建立专业网络旅游资料库,为游客提供各种旅游相关信息和服务,也为众多的旅游企业提供在线旅游交易,为企业创造商机,促进旅游产业的持续发展和产业升级。     

神山圣湖：静穆中的震撼与感动

记得清代诗人江弢曾写过一首诗：“我去寻诗定是痴,诗来寻我却难辞；今朝又被诗寻着,满眼溪山独去时。”诗人虽游玩过了一月有余,但仍然满目溪山。我的藏地之行,却是每次都一样的匆匆地来了又匆匆地去,只把情趣和景色装满了相机,自己的心中倒没有了半点记性。想不到的是在纳木