Informational efficiency with ambiguous information

This paper proves the existence of fully revealing rational expectations equilibria for almost all sets of beliefs when investors are ambiguity averse and have preferences that are characterized by Choquet expected utility with a convex capacity. The result implies that strong-form efficient equilibrium prices exist even when many investors in the market make use of information in a way that is substantially different from traditional models of financial markets.     

Changes in Technology and Preferences: A General Equilibrium Explanation of Rapid Growth in Trade

We use a computable general equilibrium model in an explanation of the recent rapid growth in Australia's trade, particularly intra-industry trade. Relative to previous studies of trade growth based on multiple regression analysis, our approach allows us to: (i) work at a detailed industry level; (ii) use primary variables to represent changes in technology and preferences rather than proxies; and (iii) use a framework based on explicit microeconomic foundations. We find that most of the growth in Australia's trade relative to GDP is explained by changes in technology and preferences.     

Strategies that fit emerging markets

It's no easy task to identify strategies for entering new international markets or to decide which countries to do business with. Many firms simply go with what they know-and fall far short of their goals. Part of the problem is that emerging markets have "institutional voids": They lack specialized intermediaries, regulatory systems, and contract-enforcing methods. These gaps have made it difficult for multinationals to succeed in developing nations; thus, many companies have resisted investing there. That may be a mistake. If Western companies don't come up with good strategies for engaging with emerging markets, they are unlikely to remain competitive. Many firms choose their markets and strategies for the wrong reasons, relying on everything from senior managers' gut feelings to the behaviors of rivals. Corporations also depend on composite indexes for help making decisions. But these analyses can be misleading; they don't account for vital information about the soft infrastructures in developing nations. A better approach is to understand institutional variations between countries. The best way to do this, the authors have found, is by using the five contexts framework. The five contexts are a country's political and social systems, its degree of openness, its product markets, its labor markets, and its capital markets. By asking a series of questions that pertain to each ofthe five areas, executives can map the institutional contexts of any nation. When companies match their strategies to each country's contexts, they can take advantage of a location's unique strengths. But first firms should weigh the benefits against the costs. If they find that the risks of adaptation are too great, they should try to change the contexts in which they operate or simply stay away.     

Foreign Investment and Industrialization in Malaysia: Exports,Employment and Spillovers*

Over the past two decades, there has been a decisive shift in trade and industry policy in developing countries (DCs) away from import substitution and towards export-orientation. As part of this policy shift, an increasing number of DCs have become more receptive to foreign direct investment (FDI). Despite its policy relevance, the literature on the role of FDI in export expansion, employment generation and spillovers in DCs is sparse. This paper attempts to fill this gap through a case study of the role of export-oriented FDI in Malaysia's rapid industrialization. The overall conclusion of the paper is that export-oriented FDI has brought significant returns to Malaysia principally because the general economic climate has been favourable for the internationalization of production for a considerable period of time.     

Dealing with the Proliferation of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements

Bilateral free trade agreements (BTAs) have been proliferating. The outcome of this proliferation of often overlapping BTAs and plurilateral free trade agreements (PTAs) is described as the spaghetti bowl effect or, in the Asian region, the noodle bowl effect. This is costly, and welfare reducing. How do we remedy the situation? In this paper, we consider the various options proposed in dealing with the spaghetti bowl, and assess their ability to do so. A general limitation of these proposals is their tendency to group all kinds of BTAs together, treating them as a homogeneous group. Thus, the proposals ignore underlying differences in motivation in forming BTAs. To overcome this, we develop a taxonomy for classifying BTAs by motivation before considering the effectiveness of the different remedies proposed. We find that each proposal has its pros and cons, and can cater for different types of BTAs. Thus, a combination of the various proposals may be warranted, even in the event of an expeditious and bona fide conclusion to the Doha Round.     

Macroeconomic management amid ethnic diversity: Fifty years of Malaysian experience

This paper examines the role that macroeconomic policy has played in the Malaysian development experience. Given the multiracial nature of Malaysian society, macroeconomic policy has not only been about economic stabilization, but also about addressing income disparities along racial lines in order to preserve social harmony. The affirmative action program under the New Economic Policy (NEP) was an important signaling device, and served to demonstrate that all should share in future growth. These selective interventions were clearly distortionary, and promoted a culture of dependence on state hand-outs, as well as rent-seeking behavior. It was perhaps fortunate that FDI inflows and rapid export expansion were available to augment the domestic resource base. Although its resource cost was not a major drag on growth in the past, the slowdown in FDI inflows and exports post-crisis, combined with demographic change, implies that reforms may be necessary to ensure sustainability, going forward.     

Dilution,Dividend Commitments and Liquidity: Do Dividend Changes Reflect Information Signaling?

We develop new tests of the dividend signaling hypothesis by focusing on the role of liquidity. We allow for two different types of signaling models: one where current dividends signal firm value and the objective is to prevent current dilution, and the other where commitments to future dividends constitute the signal. We find that the results differ by the sign of the dividend surprise. Signaling models of the commitment type explain the market reaction to negative dividend surprises. Interestingly, this result is significant only for the earlier sub-period in our sample due, perhaps, to the well-documented increase in institutional investors with longer horizons. The market reaction to positive dividend surprises, on the other hand, is shown to be consistent with the over-investment and wealth transfer hypotheses. We show that the failure of the signaling model for these firms could be due to lower costs of dividend increases.     

DIVIDENDS,UNCERTAINTY, AND UNDERWRITING COSTS UNDER ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION

This paper presents a two-period model in which dividends act as a signal of the stability of the firm's future cash flows. It is demonstrated that firms with more stable future cash flows pay a higher dividend. Dividends are a credible signal because the promise of a higher dividend, ceteris paribus, increases the probability that the firm will have to issue equity and pay underwriting costs. Empirically testable implications of the model relating to the cross-sectional determinants of the level of dividends are also discussed.