Modeling approaches for the design of resilient supply networks under disruptions

This paper studies various modeling approaches to design resilient supply networks (SN) for the location-transportation problem under uncertainty. The future environment of the SN is shaped by random demands, and by disruptions perturbing depots capacity and ship-to-point demand processes. The paper proposes several stochastic programming models incorporating alternative resilience seeking formulations. A generic approach to model SN disruptions, and to elaborate and evaluate SN designs is also proposed. Experiments are made to compare the SN design models formulated, and recommendations are drawn on the approach to use to design effective and robust supply networks.     

Strategically Surviving Bankruptcy during a Global Financial Crisis: The Importance of Understanding Chapter 15

Chapter 15 of the 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act allows foreign courts more power in cases that include foreign multinational firms. U.S. businesses unexpectedly have to file a claim in another country with bankruptcy rules that are sometimes drastically different from those in U.S. courts. This paper outlines the different bankruptcy laws in selected countries and exemplifies how some countries place U.S. creditors at a disadvantage relative to employees and stockholders. This knowledge should be incorporated into management's strategic contingency plans in the case of supplier or business customer default. During periods of global financial instability such as the 2008 financial crisis, an understanding of Chapter 15 is essential.     

International Rivalry in Advancing Products

This paper explores the forces that determine the distribution of technological leadership across countries and whether technological leadership contributes to national welfare. Increased domestic resources or domestic innovation efficiency need not improve domestic technological leadership when more than one quality level of a product sells in equilibrium. If and only if a sufficient share of income is spent on high quality levels does increased domestic resources or domestic innovation efficiency improve domestic technological leadership. When discounting is slight enough, forces that improve domestic technological leadership reduce welfare by reducing the rate of innovation.     

Method for identifying strategic objectives in strategy maps

This paper describes a simple tool for identifying strategic objectives as part of the design of strategy maps, based on the balanced scorecard, and meant to be used in organisations to establish performance indicators. To design the tool, a number of companies that implemented the balanced scorecard were analysed, in order to obtain their methodologies to create strategy maps. Three types of methods were found, different from each other in the way the strategic objectives are defined. By studying the benefits and drawbacks of the three methods, a simple, method was obtained. Basically, the method identifies general and specific strategic objectives and uses a modified SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis. This paper also makes an analysis of the type of strategic objectives that the studied companies defined as part of the balanced scorecard implementation process.     

Cost-effectiveness of daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir-based regimen for treatment of hepatitis C virus genotype 3 infection in Canada

Objective:

New regimens for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 have demonstrated substantial improvement in sustained virologic response (SVR) compared with existing therapies, but are considerably more expensive. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of two novel all-oral, interferon-free regimens for the treatment of patients with HCV genotype 3: daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir (DCV?+?SOF) and sofosbuvir plus ribavirin (SOF?+?RBV), from a Canadian health-system perspective.

Methods:

A decision analytic Markov model was developed to compare the effect of various treatment strategies on the natural history of the disease and their associated costs in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Patients were initially distributed across fibrosis stages F0–F4, and may incur disease progression through fibrosis stages and on to end-stage liver disease complications and death; or may achieve SVR. Clinical efficacy, health-related quality-of-life, costs, and transition probabilities were based on published literature. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess parameter uncertainty associated with the analysis.

Results:

In treatment-naive patients, the expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for interferon-free regimens were higher for DCV?+?SOF (12.37) and SOF?+?RBV (12.48) compared to that of pINF?+?RBV (11.71) over a lifetime horizon, applying their clinical trial treatment durations. The expected costs were higher for DCV?+?SOF ($170,371) and SOF?+?RBV ($194,776) vs pINF?+?RBV regimen ($90,905). Compared to pINF?+?RBV, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were $120,671 and $135,398 per QALYs for DCV?+?SOF and SOF?+?RBV, respectively. In treatment-experienced patients, DCV?+?SOF regimen dominated the SOF?+?RBV regimen. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a 100% probability that a DCV?+?SOF regimen was cost saving in treatment-experienced patients.

Conclusion:

Daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir is a safe and effective option for the treatment of chronic HCV genotype 3 patients. This regimen could be considered a cost-effective option following a first-line treatment of peg-interferon/ribavirin treatment experienced patients with HCV genotype-3 infection.     

Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend

We estimate the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a panel of countries using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. We find that removing legal restrictions on abortion significantly reduces fertility and estimate that, on average, a birth reduces a woman’s labor supply by almost 2 years during her reproductive life. Our results imply that behavioral change, in the form of increased female labor supply, contributes significantly to economic growth during the demographic transition when fertility declines.      

Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

Trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only accounted for part of the 1965–1990 growth performance in East Asia. Subsequently, demographic change was shown to be a missing factor in explaining the East Asian growth premium. Since 1990, East Asia has undertaken major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. We reexamine the role of the demographic transition in contributing to cross-country differences in economic growth through to 2005, with a particular focus on East Asia. We highlight the need for policy to offset potential negative effects of aging populations in the future.