Bayesian assessment of dimensionality in reduced rank regression

We consider Bayesian inference about the dimensionality in the multivariate reduced rank regression framework, which encompasses several models such as MANOVA, factor analysis and cointegration models for multiple time series. The fractional Bayes approach is used to derive a closed form approximation to the posterior distribution of the dimensionality and some asymptotic properties of the approximation are proved. Finite sample properties are studied by simulation and the method is applied to growth curve data and cointegrated multivariate time series.     

Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard and Market Monitoring

The paper analyses the relationship between deposit insurance, debt-holder monitoring, and risk taking. In a stylised banking model we show that deposit insurance may reduce moral hazard, if deposit insurance credibly leaves out non-deposit creditors. Testing the model using EU bank level data yields evidence consistent with the model, suggesting that explicit deposit insurance may serve as a commitment device to limit the safety net and permit monitoring by uninsured subordinated debt holders. We further find that credible limits to the safety net reduce risk taking of smaller banks with low charter values and sizeable subordinated debt shares only. However, we also find that the introduction of explicit deposit insurance tends to increase the share of insured deposits in banks' liabilities.     

Substitution of Noncash Payment Instruments for Cash in Europe

The substitution of noncash (check, giro, credit and debit card) payments for cash transactions is of interest for monetary policy and for determining central banks' future seigniorage revenue. We develop a novel method for approximating the share of cash transactions using public information on currency stocks, noncash payments, and card payment technology for 10 European countries. We also provide a forecast of future cash use by country. The trend in cash substitution across countries is quite similar, but the countries themselves are at significantly different stages in this process. The spread of debit and credit card payments has been the key factor behind the substitution away from cash as the use of electronic cash is still in its infancy.     

Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?

Recent arguments, motivated partly by the new fiscal theory of price level, suggest that fiscal deficits undermine price stability in transition economies. This paper addresses these claims by examining vector-autoregressive models of inflation for three transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania and Russia). The results indicate that fiscal deficits have increased inflation in Bulgaria and Romania but not in the case of Russia. In Bulgaria and Romania, money aggregates and exchange rate have also been more influential to inflation than fiscal deficits. The analysis based on this method therefore suggests that while fiscal deficits have some influence on inflation, monetary factors mostly determine inflation in these three countries.     

Fiscal policy and structural reforms in transition economiesAn empirical analysis

This paper provides an empirical examination of the relationship between fiscal balance and structural reforms using panel data from 25 transition economies. The results indicate that privatization and restructuring, via unemployment, affect the fiscal balance negatively. This finding provides support for ideas in theoretical transition economics that maintain that fiscal pressures are most severe in fast-reforming countries. In contrast, price liberalization has a robust positive impact on fiscal performance. In addition, the results differ somewhat over different countries and transition time.     

In search of marginal environmental valuations — ecosystem services in Finnish forest accounting

There is currently substantial interest in valuing various services provided by different ecosystems. Concurrently economists have ascribed substantial effort on expanding traditional forest accounting systems by environmental services. This paper contributes to curtailing the existing gap between green accounting theory and applications for valuing forest ecosystem services. The multitude of links between forest ecosystem services and economy are characterized by the theoretical model for forest-economy interactions. By utilizing recently updated data we also incorporate empirical value estimates of these services comparable to other goods into Finnish forest accounting system. Finally, we discuss some problems encountered and clarify the interpretation of some value estimates incorporated to national forest account.     

Analysis of the Colorado potato beetle protection system in Finland

Invasive species, including plants, insects and other pests, are a serious threat to agricultural production and to the environment in general. Finland has traditionally had a favourable situation concerning invasives, partly due to its isolated geographical location. The situation may now be changing and one of the currently increasing threats is the Colorado potato beetle (CPB). Finland has designed a CPB protection policy incorporating a protected zone, which is commonly used to deal with invasive plant pests in other European countries. Within this zone, the randomly occurring CPB invasions are collectively fended off, to prevent the establishment of a permanent pest population and to minimise potential damage. This paper evaluates the economics of the current protection programme, comparing this to a hypothetical situation in which the current pre-emptive policy is abandoned and control relies on producers' individual reactive protection measures. The annual random pest invasions are modelled in a static stochastic framework. To date the pest has not been able to establish a permanent population in Finland. According to our analysis, the currently exercised pre-emptive policy is the cost-efficient choice at this point. The relatively low expected invasion magnitude is one of the key factors supporting the efficiency of the current system. Another reason is the fairly small damage incurred. However, when the invasions become larger and more frequent or the pest strains more cold-resistant, the future situation may change.     

How to build a strategic network: A practitioner-oriented process model for the ICT sector

One critical success factor for the future will be the ability to build and develop strategic networks. This ability is especially vital in the dynamic information and communication technology (ICT) sector, where the development of competitive offerings often requires a coalition of platform and service providers. However, the academic literature has yet to propose a systematic managerial tool for the strategic network building process. Our distinctive contribution is the development of a practitioner-oriented process model for building a strategic network, which is linked to the resource-based view and the value creation system approach. Moreover, we suggest that instead of being a sequential stage-wise process, the construction of a strategic network can be divided into parallel, although not necessarily simultaneous, sub-processes based on the required value activities in the entire business concept. The resulting network-building model is used to provide managerial suggestions for the efficient construction of strategic business networks.     

ON THE FUNCTIONAL FORM OF EARNINGS AND STOCK PRICES: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE E/P ANOMALY

This paper examines the functional form of earnings and stock prices on US and Finnish stock markets. Although the functional specification of the components of financial ratios based on purely accounting numbers has received considerable attention, the functional form of earnings and stock prices has not been investigated carefully enough. This investigation is, however, important because of the common use of E/P ratio in financial statement analysis. The empirical evidence provided by this study indicates that the proportional relationship between earnings and stock prices is rejected in both countries. In addition, it is discovered that this deviation from proportionality is a major factor producing the so-called E/P anomaly in these two countries.     

The Impact of Pillar 3 Disclosure Requirements on Bank Safety

We consider the impact of a mandatory information disclosure on bank safety in a spatial model of banking competition, in which a bank’s probability of success depends on the quality of its risk measurement and management systems. Under Basel capital requirements, this quality is at least partially disclosed to market participants by the Pillar 3 disclosures. We show that the regulator can improve the safety of the banking system by tightening the disclosure requirements. Furthermore, the stricter the disclosure requirements are the bigger is a positive impact of an increase in capital requirements on bank safety.