Causal Relations Among Stock Returns,Interest Rates,Real Activity,and Inflation

Using a multivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) approach, this paper investigates causal relations and dynamic interactions among asset returns, real activity, and inflation in the postwar United States. Major findings are (1) stock returns appear Granger-causally prior and help explain real activity, (2) with interest rates in the VAR, stock returns explain little variation in inflation, although interest rates explain a substantial fraction of the variation in inflation, and (3) inflation explains little variation in real activity. These findings seem more compatible with Fama (1981) than with Geske and Roll (1983) or with Ram and Spencer (1983) .     

Do Firms Knowingly Sell Overvalued Equity?

This article examines the relation between top executives' trading and the long-run stock returns of seasoned equity issuing firms. Primary issuers, who sell mostly newly-issued primary shares, significantly underperform their benchmarks, regardless of the top executives' prior trading pattern. However, top executives' trading is reliably associated with the stock returns of secondary issuers, who sell mostly secondary shares previously held by existing shareholders. On average, secondary issuers do not underperform their benchmarks. The results suggest that increased free cash flow problems after issue play an important role in explaining the underperformance of issuing firms.     

供应链上非营利组织的整合营销传播组织模式研究

介绍了非营利组织与整合营销传播理论及供应链上非营利组织整合营销传播的特性,最后详细论述了供应链上非营利组织整合营销传播组织模式的设计思路。     

Investment Horizon and Composition of Optimal Portofolio: International Evidence

Little attention has been paid in the literature to the impact of different investment horizons on the portfolio compositiondespite its importance to portfolio managers. One exception isthe study by Gunthorpe and Levy (1994) on the U.S. stock market.Our paper extends the same study to the stock markets of Japan,Hong Kong and Korea. Using 40 individual stocks in each market,our results support those of Gunthorpe and Levy (1994) in thatthe composition of an optimal portfolio depends heavily on theinvestment horizon. When the investment horizon lengthens, theproportion of defensive stocks becomes larger while that ofaggressive stocks becomes smaller.     

福鼎市桐江溪卤乙酸分布特征及潮汐影响分析

为了掌握福鼎市桐江溪卤乙酸(HAAs)的含量、时空分布规律及其来源,对水体中HAAs化合物进行取样调查。根据桐江溪水文情势及沿岸特点设置10个取样点,于2017年12月及2018年7月按照涨潮、退潮情况分别对水样进行采集,检测HAAs分布情况,同时将卤乙酸(HAAs)与水质特性、涨退潮进行了相关性分析。研究发现,HAAs是普遍存在于桐江溪中的污染物质。其中,一氯乙酸(MCAA)、二氯乙酸(DCAA)、三氯乙酸(TCAA)、一溴乙酸(MBAA)、二溴乙酸(DBAA)等5种卤乙酸(HAA_5)质量浓度为0.44～3.39μg/L;一氯乙酸(MCAA)、二氯乙酸(DCAA)、三氯乙酸(TCAA)、一溴乙酸(MBAA)、二溴乙酸(DBAA)、三溴乙酸(TBAA)、一溴一氯乙酸(BCAA)、一溴二氯乙酸(BDCAA)、二溴一氯乙酸(CBDAA)等9种卤乙酸(HAA_9)质量浓度为0.83～56.15μg/L。桐江溪中HAAs主要为DCAA,TCAA,TBAA 3种,其中DCAA为制药厂及医院排水导致,主要分布在下游;TCAA主要来源于河段上游的农业生产活动;TBAA为上游沸石矿尾矿库受雨水冲刷而流入的Br~-所生成,主要分布于河流中下段。相关性分析结果表明,温度与HAA_5,HAA_9质量浓度呈现正相关,pH值与HAA_5,HAA_9质量浓度呈现负相关;TCAA质量浓度于相同季节不同潮汐及不同季节相同潮汐时均呈现上游高于下游的现象,其他HAAs均不因涨潮、退潮的差异造成质量浓度分布的变化。掌握桐江溪HAAs的含量、时空分布规律及来源,探讨其与水质的相关性,对于净水工艺选择、水厂出水HAAs含量的溯源分析、水体环境风险评估以及研究水生生物体内HAAs的累积效应等有重要意义。     

PRICE DYNAMICS,FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND ANTICIPATED SHOCKS IN A TOURISM ECONOMY

Using a dynamic model of an open monetary economy, this paper examines the effects of tourism‐related anticipated shocks on goods prices and foreign exchange reserves. Foreign tourists consume mainly non‐traded goods in holiday destinations, converting them into exportable goods. This gives rise to a tourism terms‐of‐trade effect that affects the accumulation of foreign exchange. Announcements of anticipated events bring tourist visits forward, resulting in an initial under‐adjustment or an over‐adjustment in the prices of the non‐traded goods when the tourism terms‐of‐trade effect is positive or negative. This leads to an increase or a decrease in foreign reserves in the long run.     

High School Economic Education and Access to Financial Services

This study provides a long-term assessment of economic education by examining an individual's decision to have a bank account. Using the results of a nationwide telephone survey, high school courses in economics and business reduced the probability that an adult was unbanked, ceteris paribus. In addition, adults who demonstrated a higher level of understanding of basic economic concepts were less likely to be unbanked. The results indicated that an individual's understanding of the economic system was as important as formal coursework in explaining access to basic financial services.     

The Impact of Union Political Activities on Public-Sector Pay, Employment, and Budgets

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the political power of public employee unions has been a major cause of excessive growth in municipal expenditures. Previous studies, however, have not directly measured union political activities but instead have used some type of unionization or collective bargaining proxy. This paper uses unpublished data from the International City Management Association (ICMA) to develop a more direct measure of police and fire union political activity. It is found that increased union political activity leads to greater department expenditures but not necessarily to greater municipal expenditures or revenues. The results also suggest that unions increase department spending through political activity and not through the collective bargaining process itself. Further, it appears that political activity increases department spending through higher employment and not through higher compensation.     

Managers' Trading Around Stock Repurchases

We analyze personal open market trades by managers around stock repurchases by tender offer. With the exception of Dutch auction offers, managers trade their firm's shares prior to repurchase announcements as though repurchases convey favorable inside information to outsiders. Prior to fixed price repurchase offers that do not follow takeover-related events, managers increase their buying and reduce their selling of their firm's shares. Prior to repurchases that follow takeover-related events, only a decrease in selling is found. No abnormal trading precedes Dutch auction repurchase offers.