The Effect of Errors in Variables on Tests for a Risk Premium in Forward Exchange Rates

Conventional tests for a risk premium in the price of forward exchange use the subsequently realized spot rate as a proxy for prior expectations. Use of this proxy creates a serious errors-in-variables problem which makes it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of zero risk premium. Use of a better proxy for expectations indicates the presence of a risk premium in the forward exchange rate of all countries analyzed.     

VALUE FOR MONEY AUDITING IN NEW ZEALAND: COMPETING FOR CONTROL IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR

This paper provides an overview of the changing role of performance or Value for Money (VFM) auditing in the New Zealand public sector. In many countries there has been a strong interest in public sector reform and the place of accounting technologies such as VFM. A theoretical framework, derived from public policy literature, is used to explain the changing role and relevance of VFM auditing in New Zealand. Within the policy process problems, solutions and opportunities are relatively separate streams. Expert groups or epistemic communities compete to define the problem and to advocate their particular solutions. The Office of the Auditor-General is presented as an epistemic community within the New Zealand policy process and the technology of VFM as a solution to the problems of the day. However, the Treasury (NZ) also developed a policy solution involving radical restructure of the public sector, challenging the existing role of VFM. In response, the Audit Office re-defined the role of VFM auditing as a service to the parliamentary select committees. The changing role of VFM illustrates the flexible and the contestable nature of accounting technologies and casts some doubt on the argument that the growth of accounting in the public sector is inevitable.     

Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Asset Returns

This paper investigates the importance of idiosyncratic consumption risk for the cross‐sectional variation in asset returns. We find that besides the rate of aggregate consumption growth, the cross‐sectional variance of consumption growth is also a priced factor. This suggests that consumers are not fully insured against idiosyncratic consumption risk, and that asset returns reflect their attempts to reduce their exposure to this risk. The resulting two‐factor consumption‐based asset pricing model significantly outperforms the CAPM, and its performance compares favorably with that of the Fama–French three‐factor model.     

Strategic Network Disruption and Defense

We study a game between a network designer, who uses costly links to connect nodes in a network, and a network disruptor who tries to disrupt the resulting network as much as possible by deleting either nodes or links. For low linking costs networks with all nodes in symmetric positions are a best response of the designer under both link deletion and node deletion. For high linking costs the designer builds a star network under link deletion, but for node deletion excludes some nodes from the network to build a smaller but stronger network. For intermediate linking costs the designer again builds a symmetric network under node deletion but a star‐like network with weak spots under link deletion.     

Living Wage Policies at the San Francisco Airport: Impacts on Workers and Businesses

This paper evaluates the costs, benefits and related impacts of living wage policies implemented at the San Francisco Airport (SFO). Unlike other living wage ordinances, the policies at SFO cover a large proportion of the low-wage labor force in a distinct labor market. The authors find that about 73 percent of the ground-based non-managerial workers at SFO received substantial wage increases as a direct or indirect result of the policies; the proportion of these workers earning under $10 per hour fell from 55 percent to 5 percent, significantly reducing earnings inequality. Other benefits to workers included enhanced health benefits and an arrest of declines in quality of life indices. The costs of the policies to employers amounted to an average of 0.7 percent of fare revenue, or $1.42 per airline passenger. We observe a series of dynamic adjustments that reduced those costs, including dramatically reduced turnover, improved worker morale and greater work effort. We find some limited evidence of worker-worker substitution, but no evidence of employment decline.     

GLOBALIZATION,TRADE, AND WAGES: WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US ABOUT CHINA?

Newly assembled data show that, as China opened up to global trade during the early 20th century, its exports became more unskilled‐intensive and its imports more skill‐intensive. Difference‐in‐differences estimates show that World War I dramatically increased Chinese exports, raising the relative demand for the unskilled workers producing them. When the war ended, trade costs declined and China's terms of trade increased, further stimulating exports. A simulation of a dynamic general equilibrium model demonstrates that the effects of the war on China's terms of trade produces a decline in the skill premium similar to what China experienced in the 1920s.     

Irving Fisher and Price‐Level Targeting in Austria: Was Silver the Answer?

The question of price level versus inflation targeting remains controversial. Disagreement concerns not so much the desirability of price stability but rather the means of achieving it. Irving Fisher argued for a commodity dollar standard where the purchasing power of money was fixed by indexing it to a basket of commodities. We show that movements in the price of silver closely track the movements in overall prices during the classical gold standard era. The one‐to‐one relationship between paper and silver bonds suggests that a simple “silver rule” could have sufficed to fix the purchasing power of money.