The effectiveness of interest-rate futures contracts for hedging Japanese bonds of different credit quality and duration

This study investigates the effectiveness of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)-traded Japanese 10-year JGB futures contract to hedge portfolios of Japanese bonds of differing maturity and credit quality. The bond portfolios examined are Government, AAA-, and AA-rated Eurobonds with maturities of 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 20 years. Consistent with the recent literature, the study employs univariate methods for calculating hedge ratios based on levels, first differences, and percentage change of each series. Out-of-sample forecasting is used to determine the effectiveness of the calculated hedge ratios for each of the bond portfolios and to determine which approach to calculating hedge ratios is the most effective. The results show that this particular futures contract does provide a good hedge, particularly for those bond terms closest to the 10-year term of the contract. There is some evidence, although not strong, that JGBs are better hedged than AAA and AA bonds. Investors should take some caution when using this futures contract to hedge bond portfolios of different maturities and credit ratings.     

Informed and uninformed trading on the Australian dollar

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian/US dollar, this study examines the distribution of quotes, spreads, and returns across the trading day. By identifying the direction of trade and the subsequent quote returns from contributing banks, the segmented nature of the market into market-makers and informed and uninformed traders is investigated. The results suggest that the economic gain possible from private information is maximised over 2 to 5 quotes and is rapidly eroded by 20 quotes (about 2 min later during busy trading times) as other new information enters the market. Also, the analysis is revealing of discontinuities in trading and the volatility of pricing across the trading day.     

Has Dodd–Frank affected bank expenses?

Journal of Regulatory Economics - This paper examines the potential effects of the Dodd–Frank Act of 2010 on banks’ noninterest expenses. Using data on U.S. bank holding companies from...     

Changing Perceptions of Maturity Mismatch in the U.S. Banking System: Evidence from Equity Markets

We use the sensitivity of bank holding company equity returns to market interest rates as an indicator of perceived maturity mismatch. Based on data from 1990 to 2009, there is only weak evidence that market participants perceived banks to be effectively short‐funded. However, looking at 1990–1996 and 1997–2009 subsamples separately, our results suggest that U.S. commercial banks were perceived as short‐funded during the earlier time period but not the later. During this time of changing perceptions of maturity mismatch, banks were increasing their holdings of real estate loans as a share of total assets. We present evidence that, subsequent to 1996, market participants perceived real estate loans as having become effectively shorter‐term.     

Electricity Market Restructuring: Reforms of Reforms

Electricity systems present complicated challenges for public policy. In many respects these challenges are similar to those in other network industries in providing a balance between regulation and markets, public investment and private risk taking, coordination and competition. As with other such industries, naturally monopoly elements interact with potentially competitive services, but electricity has some unusual features that defy simple analogy to other network industries. Following a reversal of a long-term decline in real electricity prices, the last two decades of the twentieth century were for the United States a time of reform, reaction, and reforms of reforms in electricity systems, moving slowly towards greater reliance on competition and markets. Changing technology, new entrants in the generation market, and a legislative mandate to provide access to the essential transmission facility accelerated a process that required major innovations in institutions and operations. Complete laissez faire competition is not possible, and the details of an efficient competitive electricity market are neither obvious nor easy to put in place. The benefits of reform may be substantial, but they require careful attention to market design. A review of the past identifies some choices on the road ahead.     

Classifying nursing home patients; the impact of mid-week data collection on variance reduction.

This study analyzes the variance reduction capabilities of three existing nursing home patient classification systems across different shifts and sub-week time periods. The existing classification systems, all based on nursing time data collected in the middle of the working week, performed well with data collected at night and on weekends. Existing nursing home patient classification systems are robust for time periods other than those during which nursing times have usually been collected.     

Black population measurement as a factor in subsidized programs

Conclusions We have developed a method of estimating the population of the nation. To a lesser degree we have illustrated a similar method for estimating the black population. The caution to be emphasized over and over again is that we have merely described the pattern of survival of the population. Although we have used some common-sense notions that may have a bearing on theory, we have not invoked any theoretical postulates in this study.     

The Effect of Separation Bonuses on Voluntary Quits: Evidence from the Military's Downsizing

This paper analyzes the decision of mid-career personnel to voluntarily leave the U.S. military in response to a financial incentive program. A model of the separation decision is tested using data on Navy and Air Force enlisted personnel who were targeted for the buyout in 1992. Two alternative estimates are provided, one from a fixed effects model and one from a structural, annualized cost of leaving model. Our basic results indicate the financial incentive had a modest effect in inducing additional quits. The impact of the separation bonus, however, was much larger for occupations facing a threat of involuntary layoff.