Adult and Teenage Use of Consumer,Business, and Entertainment Technology: Potholes on the Information Superhighway?

Adults and teenagers were surveyed to determine their use and ownership of 32 consumer, business, and entertainment technology devices. Demographics, technology experience, and “technophobia” were examined as potential discriminators between Confident Users, Hesitant Users, and Nonusers of each technological device. Results indicated that older, technophobic adults with little computer training and lower income, black and Hispanic, technophobic teenagers did not use most technological devices.     

In-Kind Food Assistance and Consumer Food Choice

In-kind food assistance was the mainstay of federal food programs until the food stamp program expanded. Analysis of aggregate data suggests that large donations of cheese and butter since 1982, through the Temporary Emergency Food Assistance Program, replaced recipients’ normal purchases of the donated products, reduced consumption of close substitutes, and increased consumption of certain other protein foods. Programs of this type appear to have limited ability to enhance total demand for products in surplus.     

DO SCHOOL LUNCH SUBSIDIES CHANGE THE DIETARY PATTERNS OF CHILDREN FROM LOW‐INCOME HOUSEHOLDS?

This article examines the effects of school lunch subsidies provided through the means‐tested component of the National School Lunch Program on the dietary patterns of children aged 10–13 years in the United States. Analyzing data on 5,140 public school children in fifth grade during spring 2004, we find significant increases in the number of servings of fruit, green salad, carrots, other vegetables, and 100% fruit juice consumed in 1 week for subsidized children relative to unsubsidized children. The effects on fruit and other vegetable consumption are stronger among the children receiving a full subsidy, as opposed to only a partial subsidy, and indicate the size of the subsidy is an important policy lever underlying the program's effectiveness. Overall, the findings provide the strongest empirical evidence to date that the means‐tested school lunch subsidies increase children's consumption over a time period longer than one school day. (JEL H51, I12, I38)     

Forecasts of earnings per share: Possible sources of analyst superiority and bias*

Abstract. Previous research has shown that analysts' forecasts of quarterly earnings per share (EPS) are more accurate than those of accepted time-series models. In addition, some previous research suggests that, on average, analysts' forecasts tend to be optimistic (i.e., biased). Two explanations for analysts' superiority have been proposed: (1) analysts use more recent information than can time-series models and (2) analysts use forecast-relevant information not included in the time-series of past earnings. This paper provides evidence on a third potential source of analyst superiority: the possibility that humans can use past earnings data to predict future earnings more accurately than can mechanical time-series models. We find that human judges do no worse than accepted time-series models when both use the same information set: namely, the series of past EPS figures. To date, little or no research has attempted to determine why analyst bias might exist. Still, some possible reasons have been forwarded. First, pessimistic forecasts or reports may hinder future efforts of the analyst or the analyst's employer to obtain information from the company being analyzed. Second, forecast data bases may suffer a selection bias if analysts tend to stop following those firms that they perceive as performing poorly. This study proposes, and provides evidence regarding, a third possible explanation for analyst bias: the use of judgmental heuristics by analysts. Many studies have shown that human predictions are often biased because of the use of such heuristics. We present evidence that suggests this may be the case for analysts' forecasts of earnings per share. Résumé. De précédents travaux de recherche ont démontré que les prévisions des analystes relatives au bénéfice par action (BPA) trimestriel sont plus exactes que celles que permettent d'obtenir les modèles reconnus basés sur les séries chronologiques. De plus, les résultats de certains travaux de recherche laissent croire qu'en moyenne, les prévisions des analystes tendent à être optimistes (c'est-à-dire biaisées). Deux explications à cette supériorité ont été proposées: 1) l'information que les analystes utilisent est plus récente que celles utilisées dans les modèles fondés sur les séries chronologiques et 2) les analystes utilisent de l'information pertinente aux prévisions qui ne figure pas dans les séries chronologiques relatives aux bénéfices passes. Les auteurs attribuent à un troisième facteur potentiel cette supériorité: la possibilité pour les humains d'utiliser les données relatives aux bénéfices passés pour prédire les bénéfices futurs de façon plus précise que ne le peuvent les modèles fondés sur les séries chronologiques. Ils en viennent à la conclusion que les humains obtiennent des résultats tout aussi efficaces que les modèles chronologiques reconnus lorsqu'ils utilisent un jeu de renseignements identique, soit les données historiques relatives au BPA. Jusqu'à maintenant, peu de chercheurs, sinon aucun, ont tenté de déterminer à quoi tiendrait l'existence d'un biais chez l'analyste. Malgré tout, certaines explications possibles ont été proposées. Premièrement, les prévisions ou les rapports pessimistes peuvent faire obstacle aux efforts futurs de l'analyste ou de son employeur pour obtenir de l'information de la société faisant l'objet de l'analyse. Deuxièmement, les bases de données servant à la prévision peuvent être entachées d'un biais de sélection si les analystes ont tendance à cesser de suivre les entreprises qui leur semblent afficher une piètre performance. Les auteurs proposent et attestent une troisième explication possible du biais de l'analyste: l'utilisation de méthodes heuristiques fondées sur le jugement. De nombreuses études ont démontré que les prédictions humaines sont souvent biaisées par suite de l'utilisation de ces méthodes heuristiques. Les auteurs apportent des arguments qui permettent de croire que ce pourrait être le cas des prévisions des analystes du bénéfice par action.     

DETERMINANTS OF BANK ACQUISITION PREMIUMS: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

The recent interstate bank merger phenomenon has received little attention in the literature. Specifically, existing studies fail to explain sufficiently the variation of premiums paid and fail to investigate adequately the bank merger wave in terms of its interstate banking context.
This study employs models with substantial overall explanatory levels. The interstate banking context proves to be very significant. First, the study considers and finds significant the effective date of a state's interstate statute in relation to a deal's announcement date. This contrasts sharply with other studies. Second, the study uses and also finds significant a binary variable distinguishing intrastate deals from interstate deals. The premiums paid for interstate market entry, on average, exceeded those paid for intrastate transactions. Third, including regional binary variables reveals a pattern of variation in pricing throughout the country. The Southeast, the study's base of comparison, exhibited the highest premium level.
Other significant determinants of premiums paid include profitability as measured by returns on equity, growth proxied by state deposit growth and future expected population growth, and charge-offs to total loans as an indicator of loan quality.     

THE INTERSTATE BANKING LANDSCAPE: LEGISLATIVE POLICIES AND RATIONALE

Expansion across state boundaries has been the dominant change in the structural landscape of banking. Forty-one states and the District of Columbia now permit full-service interstate banking. This paper reviews and analyzes these laws and their related provisions. Geographical liberalization is found to be mostly pro-competitive.
Regional reciprocity statutes dominated the interstate banking landscape until mid-1985. Of the first 18 laws, 12 were regional. However, the regional approach peaked quickly, and most remaining states enacted nationwide laws—either immediate nationwide bills or regional bills that "trigger" to the nationwide level at a certain date. Presently, 27 of the 42 laws are nationwide. At least 9 states that initially selected regional laws are soon expected to switch to a nationwide approach.
Regional banking compacts seemed inherently unstable and difficult to establish. Only the Southeast successfully established a stable regional banking zone. The location of control over the nation's banking assets is being restructured. In some states with well-capitalized holding companies aggressively exploiting the new laws, banks have grown in size. Other states that were slow to pass legislation, or whose banks are in no financial position to make acquisitions, have lost rank.
After a relatively short time, the federal government finally may legislate on the interstate banking issue. Pressure to do so would derive from the different banking structures and regions, problematic competitive dimensions, banks' supervision and regulation necessities, and eventual interstate branching proposals.     

An Empirical Test of the Impact of Managerial Self-Interest on Corporate Capital Structure

This paper provides a test of whether capital structure decisions are at least in part motivated by managerial self-interest. It is shown that the debt ratio is negatively related to management's shareholding, reflecting the greater nondiversifiable risk of debt to management than to public investors for maintaining a low debt ratio. Unless there is a nonmanagerial principal stockholder, no substantial increase of debt can be realized, which may suggest that the existence of large nonmanagerial stockholders might make the interests of managers and public investors coincide.