Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands

This paper examines the exit process from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands, and the role of capital flows in these exits. It dwells on the experience of various countries, including Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Israel, India, Poland, and Yemen. It begins by identifying conditions under which exits are sought. Next, it discusses the prerequisites for a successful exit, factors affecting the pace of exit, and the nature of the post‐exit regime. It then examines the behavior of private capital flows, interest rates, and official reserves before and after three successful exits (Chile, India, and Poland), and draws broad policy lessons.     

Making things stick: enforcement and compliance

Environmental rules and regulations are only useful insofaras firms can be persuaded to comply with them in full or inpart. We survey the rapidly growing literature on the enforcementaspects of environmental policy. The difficulties facing anyregulatory agency are likely to be exacerbated by informationproblems, penalty constraints, and the evasion efforts of firms,and we emphasize the role that recent innovative approachesto implementation can play in bolstering more traditional enforcementinstruments.     

The box spread arbitrage conditions: theory, tests, and investment strategies

This paper develops and tests arbitrage bounds for a combinationof two option spread positions known as a box spread. This strategyinvolves the simultaneous use of four options and creates aposition that is equivalent to riskless lending. The no-arbitrageconditions are compared to existing arbitrage bounds and aretested using Chicago Board Options Exchange data.     

Bringing science to the art of strategy

Many managers feel doomed to trade off the futile rigor of ordinary strategic planning for the hit-or-miss creativity of the alternatives. In fact, the two can be reconciled to produce novel but realistic strategies. The key is to recognize that conventional strategic planning, for all its analysis, is not actually scientific-it lacks the careful generation and testing of hypotheses that are at the heart of the scientific method. The authors outline a strategy-making process that combines rigor and creativity. A team begins by formulating options, or possibilities, and asks what must be true for each to succeed. Once it has listed all the conditions, it assesses their likelihood and thereby identifies the barriers to each choice. The team then tests the key barrier conditions to see which hold true. From here, choosing a strategy is simple: The group need only review the test results and choose the possibility with the fewest serious barriers. This is the path P&G took in the late 1990s, when it was looking to become a major global player in skin care. After testing the barrier conditions for several possibilities, it opted for a bold strategy that might never have surfaced in the traditional process: reinventing Olay as a prestigelike product also sold to mass consumers. The new Olay succeeded beyond expectations-showing what can happen when teams shift from asking "What is the right answer" and focus instead on figuring out "What are the right questions?".     

合理利用国际公约降低贷款利息支出——以哈萨克斯坦国际项目合作为例

随着中哈两国政治经济合作的日益加深,在哈中资企业的发展规模不断扩大。由于哈国银行的贷款利率较高,为节省利息支出,中资企业经常到国际市场上借贷。银行获得利息收入须缴纳相应的税款,但银行一般都要求借款人承担预提税,并将此作为贷款的一个基本条件。根据哈国税法,境外法人金融企业在哈国获得的利息收入需要支付15%的所得税,其他服务费用的所得税税率为20%。在适用国际公约之后,利息支出可享受所得税税率优惠。为此,借款企业须注意贷款人是否在避税港注册,并避免恶意使用纳税国际公约,另外还要按照程序要求及时办理境外纳税人的国民证明材料。     

Business Cycles,Economic Crises,and the Poor

This paper examines whether output contractions associated with downturns and crises have an asymmetric effect on poverty. Several potential sources of asymmetry are identified first. A vector auto-regression model (involving the output gap, unemployment, real wages, and the poverty rate) is then used to test whether the initial cyclical position of the economy, and the magnitude of the initial drop in the output gap in a downturn, matter in assessing the impact of output shocks on poverty. Empirical results for Brazil indicate that poverty shows less sensitivity to output shocks when the economy is initially in a downturn.