Good neighbours matter: economic geography and the diffusion of human rights

Using multi-country panel data, this paper investigates the geopolitical and economic aspects of human rights performance. Human rights performance depends on the relative levels of economic development and spatial proximity to ‘good’ and ‘bad’ neighbours. The paper tests for basic effects of income, and applies spatial weighting models, to analyse the neighbours’ impact on human rights levels, treating this impact as partly endogenous. It takes into account size and distance when comparing each country’s human rights performance with what would be predicted from a weighted average of its neighbours’ performance. There are (1) geographical clusters and (2) size and proximity effects for human rights performance.     

Explaining the variance of price-dividend ratios

I report a bound on the variance of the-dividend ratios anda decomposition of their variance into terms that reflect changesin dividend growth and discount rates. The specification isnot restrictive. The test statistics do not require constructionof ex post present values; instead, they are restrictions onmeans, variances and covariances of price-dividend ratios, dividendgrowth, and discount rates. I consider implications for themean price-dividend ratio, and I evaluate whether a low meandiscount rate can rationalize the mean and variance of price-dividendratios. The results do not indicate any striking rejectionsof present value models. However, the bulk of the variance ofprice-dividend ratios must be accounted for by changing forecastsof discount rates, and discount rates must possess some unusualcharacteristics.     

Price formation on stock exchanges: the evolution of trading within the day

Prior analyses of prices of the NYSE and other exchanges findthat transitory price volatility is greater at the open of tradingthan at the close. We extend this line of research by using40 years of hourly Dow Jones 65 composite price index data toestimate transitory volatility throughout the trading day. Ourresults indicate that transitory volatility steadily declinesduring the trading day. We find a similar intraday decline intransitory volatility for a 2-year sample of the individualfirms in the Dow Jones 30 Industrials Index. The results areconsistent with the hypothesis that trading aids price formationand do not support the argument that particular trading mechanismsare the source of greater volatility at the open of trading.     

Decentralization and the search for policy solutions

We use mathematical and computational models to analyze theability of federated organizations to solve difficult problems.Federated organizations may have some inherent advantages forsolving difficult problems since they can empower multiple subunitsto search for policy solutions in parallel and exploit and combinethe mutual information discovered by the subunits to revealeven better solutions. We find that the benefits of these methodsof experimentation first increase and then decrease as the problemof finding good policies increases in difficulty.     

Effects of counterfactual thought on postpurchase consumer affect

This study explored the effects of counterfactual thinking (CFT) on postpurchase consumer affect. CFT is the process of imagining what might have been, that is, comparing reality (what is; the facts) with alternative possibilities. In a vignette study, the presence or absence of CFT, its direction (upward or downward), and outcome valence (positive, negative, or neutral) were manipulated. The participants' tendencies toward strategic optimism and defensive pessimism were measured, and the impact of these factors on postpurchase affect was observed. As expected, results indicated that negative outcomes were associated with greater levels of spontaneous counterfactual thought, and greater affective amplification was associated with the presence of counterfactual thought. More surprising was the finding that consumer regret increased with both downward and upward counterfactual thought, indicating that both contrast and assimilation mechanisms may be operational. With respect to personality, strategic optimists were less sensitive to purchase outcomes and counterfactual thought manipulations than were other respondents. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.