模拟商务谈判实践教学研究

商务谈判是一门实践性很强的课程,模拟谈判教学能够更好的体现这种实践性,加强商务谈判课堂教学的效果。文章从模拟谈判教学的重要意义出发,阐述了模拟《商务谈判》,教学模式的创新点,并提出了几点建议。     

A Model of Market Power in Customer Markets

We develop a model for studying dynamic competition in environments with frictions that lead to partial lock-in of customers to products. The dynamic aspects associated with customer retention and acquisition introduce pricing incentives that do not exist in more traditional, static product markets. The proposed model, while highly stylized, maintains certain symmetry properties that allow us to obtain equilibrium existence and uniqueness. We then study the comparative statics of the model and derive a closed-form relationship between average equilibrium markups and the Herfindahl index. We illustrate how the model can be used by analyzing mergers in such a dynamic environment.     

基于中医体质学的康复花园参与性设计 健康增益评价研究

以“PlanT”康复花园的场所设计及志愿者参与性活 动设计为疗愈方法，通过循证实验设计，采用中医体质量表评 价健康增益。研究结果表明：其花园参与性设计对志愿者有不 同的健康增益效果。26.67%的志愿者在参与活动后，曾由偏 颇体质转为平和体质，其中有16.67%转为平和体质并持续到 活动结束。活动结束时，在各体质的亚量表中，志愿者平和质 得分显著高于活动前，8种偏颇体质得分整体均有下降，其中5 种与活动前得分有极显著差异，2种有显著差异。调查问卷结果 表明：志愿者主观认为康复花园参与性设计对健康有明显增益 作用。选择9月采集中医体质量表数据，将实验组与对照组进行 对比，得到实验组转为平和质的人数较对照组高14%，实验组 中有2种体质在活动前后的亚量表分数有显著差异，对照组均无 显著差异。研究表明，康复花园参与性设计对本案例45~70岁 人群的健康增益有效。     

The impact of credit scoring on consumer lending

We study the adoption of automated credit scoring at a large auto finance company and the changes it enabled in lending practices. Credit scoring appears to have increased profits by roughly a thousand dollars per loan. We identify two distinct benefits of risk classification: the ability to screen high‐risk borrowers and the ability to target more generous loans to lower‐risk borrowers. We show that these had effects of similar magnitude. We also document that credit scoring compressed profitability across dealerships, and provide evidence consistent with the view that credit scoring may have substituted for varying qualities of local information.     

云南省国家森林乡村空间分布格局及其成因

目的 系统研究云南省国家森林乡村空间分布格局及其成因,对丰富和深化乡村地理学及推动乡村振兴具有重要意义。方法 文章综合运用最邻近指数、核密度、空间自相关和量化统计等方法,构建“天蓝、地绿、水清、人和”相统一的“美丽森林乡村”评价指标体系,对云南省国家森林乡村空间分布格局及其成因进行分析。结果 （1）整体上,云南省国家森林乡村呈现“中部局部集聚,四周小分散”的棋盘式空间分布格局,表现为凝聚态势,显著性较强。（2）区域上,国家森林乡村在六大流域和八大区域上呈现典型的不均衡性状态,西侧澜沧江流域与北侧长江流域分布最较多但密度小,滇西、滇西南数量多于滇西北、滇东北和滇东南。（3）空间密度上,大致形成东西、东北—西南走向的两个高密度带绵延区和四个高密度集聚中心。（4）空间相关上,空间正相关显著,由西侧热点区向东侧冷点区过渡,呈现东西相反的对称格局。（5）影响因素上,“山—水—坝”相间的国家森林乡村空间分布格局是社会、经济、文化和自然等因素共同作用的结果,随着生态价值地位的提升,地形地貌、河湖水系和气候等自然因素基础性地位更加牢固。结论 国家森林乡村空间分布反映了当地自然与人文地理环境特征,是区域文化在地表的凝结与表达。     

Production targets

We analyze a dynamic model of quantity competition, where firms continuously adjust their quantity targets, but incur convex adjustment costs when they do so. Quantity targets serve as a partial commitment device and, in equilibrium, follow a hump‐shaped pattern. The final equilibrium is more competitive than in the static analog. We then use data on monthly production targets of the Big Three U.S. auto manufacturers and show a similar empirical hump‐shaped dynamic pattern. Taken together, this suggests that strategic considerations may play a role in setting auto production schedules, and that static models may misestimate the industry's competitiveness.     

基于工作过程的《电气控制与PLC技术》课程设计探索

在《电气控制与PLC技术》课程中引入基于工作过程导向的课程设计理论,从工作任务分析、学习情境等方面对该课程内容进行重新设计,并应用于三个班级的教学实践,教学质量得到明显提高。     

ON THE OPTIMALITY OF LINE CALL CHALLENGES IN PROFESSIONAL TENNIS*

We study professional tennis players’ decisions of whether to challenge umpires’ calls using data on over 2,000 challenges in 35 tennis tournaments. The decision to challenge, which is simple to characterize, trades off reversing the umpire’s call against losing subsequent challenge opportunities. Qualitatively, players are more likely to challenge when the stakes are greater and when the option value of challenging is lower, as theory predicts. Quantitatively, players’ actual behavior is close to an optimal challenging strategy prescribed by a simple dynamic model. Our findings illustrate that professional decision makers develop decision rules that can approximate optimal behavior quite well.     

Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis

International tourism is a fast growing industry generating half a trillion dollars in annual revenues and accounting for almost 10%?of total international trade, and almost half of total trade in services. Yet, it has so far failed to receive the attention it deserves from mainstream economics. This paper attempts to provide an initial understanding of the determinants of international tourism. This paper claims that international tourism, as other forms of trade in services, is driven by unique factors of production, and may be better dealt with in a single industry study rather than in a general equilibrium trade model. In order to understand these determinants the world is viewed as a market of differentiated products, and a discrete choice estimation technique is applied to a large three-dimensional data set of tourist flows. It is shown that a relatively simple estimation technique, combined with a rich data set, can deliver reasonable substitution patterns. It is found, among other things, that political risk is very important for tourism, and that exchange rates matter mainly for tourism to developed countries. These have exchange rate elasticity of about one.     

云南在多边外向区域合作中的"轮轴-辐条"效应分析

基于优越的地理位置，云南积极参加周边的区域合作组织，逐步形成了“大圈套小圈”的多边外向区域合作空间格局。作为周边多个国家（地区）的合作对象，云南就像一个“轮轴”，而与此缔结区域合作协定的国家（地区）就像“辐条”，云南可以获得特殊收益，即“轮轴-辐条”效应。但是现阶段云南在多边外向区域合作中的“轮轴-辐条”效应还未完全显现出来，因而必须采取有效措施以优化“轮轴-辐条”效应。