Foreign banks in Japan: A study of a Japanese deregulation process

The deregulation of foreign banks in Japan, although corresponding in broad outline to world-wide trends, has diverged substantially in many particulars from patterns seen elsewhere. It has tended to be excruciatingly slow and piecemeal and to have been of minimal benefit to foreign banks. A review of this process leads to the conclusion that these characteristics result from organisational and political-bureaucratic factors inherent to the Japanese style of government which is, in turn, partially a reflection of Japanese culture. Although these non-economic factors have influenced the specific pattern of change, its overall direction appears to have been consistent with the broader national interest.The authors wish to acknowledge financial support from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Florsheimer Center for Policy Studies, and the Krueger Center for Financial Research.     

The Metabolic Syndrome and All-Cause Mortality in an Insured Lives Population

Abstract

Metabolic syndrome and its association with mortality have not been studied in insured lives populations. The Swiss Re Study evaluated metabolic syndrome prevalence and associated mortality from all causes and circulatory disease in a cohort of 35,470 predominantly healthy individuals, aged 18–83 years, who were issued life insurance policies between 1986 and 1997. Metabolic syndrome was defined using the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Expert Panel Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines. The NCEP obesity criteria were modified with a prediction equation using body mass index, gender, and age substituted for waist circumference. Adjustments also were made for nonfasting triglyceride and blood glucose values. Risk ratios for policyholders identified with metabolic syndrome were 1.16 (P = .156) for mortality from all causes and 1.45 (P = .080) for mortality from circulatory disease compared with individuals without the syndrome. Risk was proportional to the number of components, or score, of the metabolic syndrome present. Risk ratios for metabolic syndrome score were 1.14 (P < .001) for mortality from all causes and 1.38 (P < .001) for mortality from circulatory disease compared with individuals without metabolic syndrome factors. In both all-cause and circulatory death models, relative risk was highest for the blood pressure risk factor. Based on a modified NCEP definition, increased mortality risk is associated with metabolic syndrome in an insured lives cohort and has life insurance mortality pricing implications.     

An Out-of-Sample Analysis of Investment Guarantees for Equity-Linked Products

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the risk underlying investment guarantees using 78 different econometric models: GARCH, regime-switching, mixtures, and combinations of these approaches. This extensive set of models is compared with returns observed during the financial crisis in an out-of-sample analysis, bringing a new perspective to the study of equity-linked insurance. We find that despite the very good fit of recent models, too few of them are capable of consistently generating low returns over long periods, which were in fact observed empirically during the financial crisis. Moreover, tail risk measures vary significantly across models, and this emphasizes the importance of model risk. Most insurance companies are now focusing on dynamically hedging their investment guarantees, and so we also investigate the robustness of the Black-Scholes delta hedging strategy. We find that hedging errors can be very large among the top fitting models, implying that model risk must be taken into consideration when hedging investment guarantees.     

Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Parameter Reduction in Claims Reserving

Abstract

We present an application of the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method to the important problem of setting claims reserves in general insurance business for the outstanding loss liabilities. A measure of the uncertainty in these claims reserves estimates is also needed for solvency purposes. The RJMCMC method described in this paper represents an improvement over the manual processes often employed in practice. In particular, our RJMCMC method describes parameter reduction and tail factor estimation in the claims reserving process, and, moreover, it provides the full predictive distribution of the outstanding loss liabilities.     

Performance implications of capital structure: evidence from quoted UK organisations with hotel interests

The objective of this article is to foster research on the relationship between capital structure and corporate performance with hotel companies. Using data collected from 43 UK quoted organisations which possess an interest in owning and managing hotels, Modigliani and Miller's (1958 Modigliani, F and Miller, MH. 1958. The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment. American Economic Review, 48(No.3): pp.261–97 [Google Scholar]) capital structure irrelevancy theorem is tested. Empirical analysis revealed no significant relationship between the level of debt found in the capital structure and financial performance. These results are consistent with Modigliani and Miller's theorem. Results also highlight that low levels of returns on equity are a feature of the sample. This latter point appears to an important issue for hotel investment, as hotel companies are continually looking to raise external finance to fund expansion. The findings of the study suggest that Chief Financial Officers of the sample organisations need to identify novel ways of expanding the business without increasing the levels of debt. The article concludes by providing examples of how some Chief Financial Officers are responding to the challenges of capital structure.     

An Extreme Value Analysis Of Advanced Age Mortality Data

Abstract

Extreme value theory describes the behavior of random variables at extremely high or low levels. The application of extreme value theory to statistics allows us to fit models to data from the upper tail of a distribution. This paper presents a statistical analysis of advanced age mortality data, using extreme value models to quantify the upper tail of the distribution of human life spans.

Our analysis focuses on mortality data from two sources. Statistics Canada publishes the annual number of deaths in Canada, broken down by angender and age. We use the deaths data from 1949 to 1997 in our analysis. The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare also publishes detailed annual mortality data, including the 10 oldest reported ages at death in each year. We analyze the Japanese data over the period from 1980 to 2000.

Using the r-largest and peaks-over-threshold approaches to extreme value modeling, we fit generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions to the life span data. Changes in distribution by birth cohort or over time are modeled through the use of covariates. We then evaluate the appropriateness of the fitted models and discuss reasons for their shortcomings. Finally, we use our findings to address the existence of a finite upper bound on the life span distribution and the behavior of the force of mortality at advanced ages.     

Value-oriented Information Systems Design: The Concept of Potentials Modeling and its Application to Service-oriented Architectures

Companies are increasingly confronted with the question of whether or not the adoption of information technologies (IT) turns out to be a profitable venture. Thus, there is a great need for methods which allow for both the analysis and evaluation of the economic value of IT investments. In this paper we introduce the concept of potentials modeling which integrates a value-oriented perspective into information modeling. More specifically, we set out to explore the economic value of service-oriented architectures (SOA). The practicability of our approach is illustrated on the basis of a simplified application example. It is hoped that this paper will make a contribution to the ongoing discussion of IT value and stimulates further research in the field of value-oriented information systems (IS).