An empirical note about estimation and forecasting Latin American Forex returns volatility: the role of long memory and random level shifts components

Portuguese Economic Journal - A set of RLS-type models with ARMA and ARFIMA dynamics is estimated and compared in a forecasting exercise with ARFIMA, GARCH and FIGARCH models. It is an extension of...     

Coordination in a skeptical two-group population

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - This paper explores a situation in which a population split into two groups attempts to achieve the socially efficient outcome of a coordination...     

Family firm’s management composition: the role played by family members’ age in TMT and supervisor levels

Quality & Quantity - Family firms (FFs) are the backbone of entrepreneurial fabric in many countries. Management of such businesses is complex because of their features: the overlap between...     

Intergovernmental transfers and fiscal behavior insurance versus aggregate discipline

This paper evaluates the trade-off between the advantages of risk sharing and the perils of common pool problems in federal fiscal arrangements. Under the assumption of asymmetric information we evaluate two alternative regimes of intergovernmental transfers. In one regime, the central government pre-commits to a certain level of transfers that compensate vertical fiscal imbalances and provide some limited ex-ante insurance. In the other regime, it accommodates ex-post the fiscal needs of the different provinces. In this second case, full-insurance results, but the economy is subject to a tragedy of the fiscal commons, with excessive subnational spending, insufficient local taxation, and reduced production of federal public goods. We find the range of parameters for which one or the other institutional regime will be preferable. The result is a fiscal-federalism version of the usual trade-off between rules and discretion.     

A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series

Popular monthly coincident indices of business cycles, e.g. the composite index and the Stock–Watson coincident index, have two shortcomings. First, they ignore information contained in quarterly indicators such as real GDP. Second, they lack economic interpretation; hence the heights of peaks and the depths of troughs depend on the choice of an index. This paper extends the Stock–Watson coincident index by applying maximum likelihood factor analysis to a mixed‐frequency series of quarterly real GDP and monthly coincident business cycle indicators. The resulting index is related to latent monthly real GDP. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social capital effects on the discovery and exploitation of entrepreneurial opportunities

Social capital refers to social networks and the norms of reciprocity, cooperation and trust associated with them. It can be studied at different levels of analysis. As previous literature suggests, social capital has aspects at both the individual and collective levels. However, theory development and empirical research have focused on separate, sometimes diverging levels. In an attempt to address this, this research examines the simultaneous influence of individual and regional social capital on the discovery and exploitation of entrepreneurial opportunities using individual-level data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor linked with regional-level data on social capital. The results show that individuals from regions with higher social capital are more likely to discover and to exploit entrepreneurial opportunities. Moreover, individuals having networks with other entrepreneurs are also more likely to identify a business opportunity and to become an entrepreneur. Also, we found that social capital at individual level had a greater effect than social capital at regional level in the two stages of the entrepreneurial process.     

Merger policy in innovative industries

We analyze optimal merger policy in R&D-intensive industries with product innovation aiming to improve the quality of products. Our results suggest that a permissive merger policy is rarely optimal in high-tech industries when the antitrust authority considers a welfare standard that balances the impact of mergers on consumers’ surplus and firms’ profits. In particular, relative to a benchmark where the effects from R&D are absent, we show that the optimal merger policy should not be substantially more permissive in the presence of those effects from R&D.     

Effects of hiring former employees of multinationals in the absorptive capacity of local firms

The attraction of foreign direct investment seeks, among other things, to increase the productivity of local companies through knowledge spillovers. However, the empirical evidence in this regard is contradictory. One influential factor is the absorptive capacity of the local companies. This article analyzes the effect of the presence of former employees of multinational corporations as employees of local companies, on the absorptive capacity of said companies. The study was done in Costa Rica, a country known for its successful strategy in the subject matter. The data come from a survey applied to 1167 companies by the Observatorio Costarricense de las Pymes in 2011. It was found that the hiring of former employees of multinational corporations by local companies has a positive effect on the index of absorptive capacity of companies in all productive sectors. Specifically, this hiring of former employees increases the index of absorptive capacity by nine percentage points, with differences by sector and the size of the company.     

International automotive production networks: how the web comes together

This paper aims to provide empirical evidence for the connections between new trade theory and the spatial distribution of economic activities, considering the results obtained by the literature on New Economic Geography as a starting point. To do this, we apply Social Network Analysis specifically to the World Automotive Trade Network. We explore the structural features of the auto network for the years 1996 and 2009 using data on trade flows for 172 countries. Our findings suggest that the auto network has become denser, more extensive and more integrated over time, depicting a center-periphery structure in which regional clusters play a prominent role. In this configuration, strong agglomeration forces generated by companies’ desire for large and rich market access with minimum transportation costs are balanced by the search for new high-potential markets.