On the Role of Futures Trading in Spot Market Fluctuations: Perpetrator of Volatility or Victim of Regret?

We examine the role of index futures trading in spot market volatility. We use the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) approach to measure volatility, analyze causality and feedback relations between volatilities in the spot and futures markets, and test various hypotheses in the context of a multivariate model that incorporates other macrostate variables. Our empirical results suggest index futures trading may not be blamed for the observed volatility in the spot market. Rather, we find stronger and more consistent support for the alternative posture that volatility in the futures market is an outgrowth of a turbulent cash market. We use the regret (cognitive dissonance) theory to explain our results.     

Preliminary test estimators of the parameters of simple linear model with measurement error

In this paper, we discuss the properties of preliminary test estimators (PTE) of the parameters of simple linear model with measurement error (ME model) when the slope of the linear model is suspected to be zero. Expressions of the bias, MSE and efficiencies are obtained under conditional as well as unconditional situations with known reliability coefficient. Conditional model results are compared to the standard model without measurement error. We also provide the unconditional model analysis in finite samples. Asymptotic theory under local alternatives is developed when the variance of measurement error or the ratio of the variance of the model error relative to the variance of the measurement error is known. Asymptotic expressions of bias and MSE of the estimators along with their efficiencies are obtained. In every case, it is shown that the measurement error tend to increase the variability of the estimators compared to the estimators without measurement error. Graphs and tables are provided to see these results and to determine optimum level of significance for minimum guaranteed efficiency. Received October 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  A. K. Md. E. Saleh is a Distinguished Research Professor and H. M. Kim is a Ph.D. candidate in the School of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa. Acknowledgment. The authors gratefully acknowledge the constructive suggestion of the referees to improve the paper. The research is supported by NSERC grant A3088.     

Labor unemployment risk and firm risk

This paper examines the effect of labor unemployment risk on firm risk. Using unemployment insurance benefits as a proxy for unemployment risk, we find an economically significant positive relation between unemployment risk and firm risk. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms that are more labor-intensive, have a higher layoff propensity and are more financially constrained. While existing literature that employs corporate policy measures such as debt and cash holdings suggests an opposite relationship, our paper presents evidence that the effects stemming from earnings management, earnings quality and reporting quality appear to dominate.     

Cointegration of U.S. budget and current account deficits: Twins or strangers?

In this paper the authors employ the cointegration approach to explore empirically the existence of a possible long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. budget deficits and the current account deficits. This study uses annual nominal data in levels for the postwar period 1946–1988. Both the DW and the ADF tests confirm that the two deficits are not cointegrated. It implies that the two deficits have no possibility of reverting to a long-run equilibrium relation.     

Can innovation shocks determine CO2 emissions (CO2e) in the OECD economies? A new perspective

ABSTRACT

This study has attempted to address prior knowledge gaps in the environmental economics literature by integrating the innovation shocks into the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) equation for twenty-six OECD economies using data from 1990 to 2014. Foreign direct investment (FDI), exports (EXP), renewable energy consumption (REC), and GDP per capita were included as control variables. The results from multiple empirical analyses indicated that positive shocks to innovation improve, but the negative shocks disrupt environmental quality. Data analyses also showed that a positive correlation exists between income per capita of OECD economies. From the negative coefficient of income per capita (squared) and the existence of a negative nexus between FDI and CO2e, both the EKC and the Pollution Halo Hypothesis (PHH) were confirmed in sampled economies, respectively. The paper offers empirical support for the favourable impacts of REC on the quality of the environment and calls for the adoption of innovation shocks as a policy instrument to formulate better environmental policies for a sustainable future.     

Does remittance fuel labour productivity in Bangladesh? The application of an asymmetric non-linear ARDL approach

Bangladesh, a labour-abundant country, is finally learning to reap gains from her labour abundance. The historical under-optimized capital–labour ratio of Bangladesh is slowly moving towards its optimum as the migration of its labour force and consequent inflow of remittance strategically converts its abundant labour into capital. Though the fear that remittance as an alternative source of earning may result in Dutch disease for existing family members; annual data for 1982–2013 and through applying standard testing methodologies, our empirical findings suggest that such a fear is not valid since remittance flow significantly improves domestic labour productivity in Bangladesh in the long run.     

The Effect of Corporate Governance on Firm Stock Volatility in Asia

The authors examine whether firm corporate governance (CG) contributes to lower stock-return volatility. Using the panel data of 1,252 public listed firms in Asia across 11 countries for 15 years, the authors document international evidence that CG has a stabilizing effect on firm stock-return volatility. The authors further examine whether increasing information efficiency, reducing foreign exposure, and a lower cost of capital contribute to the stabilizing effect of firm CG on stock-return volatility. The result implies that better CG will only reduce stock-return volatility for firms that have less foreign exposure.     

Institutional ownership,cross-shareholdings and corporate cash reserves in Japan

Cross-country studies document a negative relation between corporate governance and cash holdings. In contrast, this relation is found to be positive in the United States. In this paper, we examine the case of Japanese firms. Using institutional ownership and cross-shareholdings as the main governance variables, we show that better governance is associated with higher cash balances as in the United States. The reason is that better-governed firms make better investment decisions. Their investments are not driven by excess liquidity and result in higher profitability and higher firm valuation. Overall, our findings indicate that management profligacy is a bigger concern to shareholders than management propensity to hoard cash because of risk aversion.